#IBEX35 Forecast: #Spanish Index Should Continue to Find Buyers after Brief Pause (24 May 2024)

• The Ibex 35 in Spain has been somewhat quiet over the course of the last 5 or 6 trading sessions, but this needs to be taken into the overall picture of a market that had shot higher for some time.
• Ultimately, this is a market that I think is trying to work off a lot of excess froth, and it is also worth noting that Spain is a little bit more volatile than some of the other countries in the European Union.

After all, if you are looking for more of a stable market, you probably want to look at the DAX in Germany, or at least the CAC in France. However, if you are looking at a bigger move in the EU, Spain is a great place to start. The market has outperformed most other indices for a while now, so the last week or so of consolidation isn’t something that you have to worry about for something bigger. After all, it was just a few weeks ago that we were €500 below where we are now.

Technical Analysis

It’s worth noting that the IBEX 35 index recently had formed a bit of an ascending triangle, and it makes sense that we may trying to continue to go higher of the longer-term, but we may need a little bit of a pullback or at least sideways action in order to offer enough perceived value for traders to take advantage of. The market will continue to be one that is very noisy, but also can really give you a lot of alpha in comparison to some of the other major indices.

The 50-Day EMA sits just below the €11,000 level and is rising at a very sharp angle. This means that the momentum is most certainly with the market to the upside, and I think that continues to be a major factor here. With that being said, I like dips as buying opportunities, especially near the €11,150 level, an area that is the top of that ascending triangle that we recently broke out of. For a target, I believe it makes a lot of sense that we go looking to at least the €12,000 level, but it may take a bit of time to get there.

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#Euro #Stoxx 50 Forex Signal: Continues to See Upward Momentum (24 May 2024)

• The Euro Stoxx 50 initially looked as if it was ready to pull back a bit during the trading session on Thursday but turned around to show signs of strength again.
• It looks as if we are squeezing to the upside, and I would draw your attention to the analysis I did on the Ibex 35 in Spain today, because the pattern looks suspiciously like the Spanish index did just a few weeks ago.
• Ultimately, this is a market that I think is trying to do everything he can to go higher, and of course this is a great index to take advantage of the overall European Union.

Momentum Still Favors Upside

Looking at the 50-Day exponential moving average near the €4975 level, it’s obvious that it is going to get close to the consolidation area that we have been in for some time and should offer a certain amount of support. Ultimately, the €5100 level above is a significant resistance barrier, and if we can break above that that I think the market could truly take off to the upside. With that being said, the Euro Stoxx 50 market is likely to continue to be very noisy, and I do think that it favors the overall upside.

All things being equal, this is a market that I think does continue to see plenty of reasons to go higher, not the least of which would be the fact that the ECB is likely to cut interest rates in the next month or 2. With this, I think eventually stocks overall will continue to do well, especially if the euro remains relatively cheap. In fact, it is trading right around the 1.09 level, which means that European indices will continue to benefit from overall exports. Short-term dips at this point in time should continue to be buying opportunities, as this market clearly has been bullish for quite a while.

If we did break down below the €4900 level, that could be a negative turn of events, but I would not hold my breath for that to happen. Because of this, I think this is a “long only” market at the moment and therefore I will traded as such.

Potential signal

• I am a buyer of this market right now.
• However, I would have a stop loss at the 4900 level.
• I will be aiming for 5100, and even add to my position at that level to eventually look for 5300.

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#ASX 200 Forecast: Takes a Beating (23 May 2024)

• The ASX 200 has fallen significantly in Australia during the trading session on Wednesday, as it looks like the AU$7900 level will continue to be very difficult to overcome.
• At this point, we have to ask whether or not we are trying to form some type of “double top”, but I think it is a bit too early to start trading on that premise.
• After all, there are a lot of things going on in the world that could help Australian companies, especially exporters.

Underneath, we have the 50-Day EMA sitting right around the AU$7700 area and rising. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of value hunters coming into this market, and of course you have to pay close attention to copper, iron, gold, and various other hard assets as it has a major and outsized influence on the Australian stock market as there are so many major miners in that region of the world.

Don’t Forget About Asia

It’s also worth noting that Australian companies are extraordinarily sensitive to Asian economies, as most of the hard assets of come out of Oz end up in either China or other developing nations. While this could also be a negative, right now it certainly looks as if a lot of traders are betting on the idea that Asian will turn things around, and commodities will continue to go higher due to the fact that inflation is out of control.

This candlestick for the day is rather negative, so it is something that you need to pay close attention to due to the fact that typically large candlesticks like this or not done in a vacuum and there is generally going to be a little bit of a follow-through play after it. On the other hand, if we do turn around and take out the top of this candlestick, then it would almost certainly signify that we are about to break out to a fresh, new high, and go looking to at least the AU$8000 region, which of course has a lot of psychology attached to it.

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#BTCUSD #Forexsignal: Price Again Trying to Approach March Record (23 May 2024)

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75% per trade.
• Trades must be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $68,906, $65,832, or $64,620.
• Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $70,625, $71,600, or $72,761.
• Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis on 9th May that the best opportunities here were likely to be small long trades from bounces at the nearest support levels. This was a good call as there was a bounce off $60,765 which gave a profitable trade.

The technical picture now has become much more bullish, with the price advancing quite strongly within the past couple of weeks to reach an area near March’s record highs.

This shows that Bitcoin is in a long-term bullish trend, which it has tended to respect and therefore has been a good asset for trend traders.

However, there are two bearish technical factors:

• The price keeps hitting resistance above $71,000 and selling off from there, and this has just happened again.
• The price has recently printed a lower resistance level at $70,625 which seems to have had a role in suppressing the price.

As the price is so near to the dangerous $71,000 area and the all-time high not far above that, I would not want to enter a long trade until we see a convincing breakout to new all-time highs.

Before that happens, I would look for a short trade from a reversal at a resistance level. The resistance level at $71,600 looks especially attractive for that.

Regarding the US Dollar, there will be a release of US Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time, followed by Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI at 2:45pm.

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#USDILS Analysis: Lower Range as Mid-Term Support Barriers Considered (23 May 2024)

The USD/ILS is trading within the lower part of its near-term range, this after having touched a low yesterday which challenged values which came within shouting distance of mid-term support again.

• The USD/ILS continues to correlate to the USD rather well.
• Yesterday’s low of nearly 3.66133 touched marks from one week ago, and also came within sight of values seen on the 1st of April.
• The ability of the USD/ILS to maintain its incremental bearish trend is noteworthy, but also creates the prospect of speculative opportunities.
• The USD has been weaker across Forex, but the past couple of days have demonstrated a bit more strength and major currencies have seen less price velocity. Thus, tight ranges have become common.

Last night’s release of the U.S Federal Reserve’s FOMC Meeting Minutes may have surprised some regarding the cautious tones regarding inflation, but it should not have. The Fed has been warning about prolonged inflation for a few months and U.S economic reports up until a couple of weeks ago consistently were highlighting inflation as a problem. Yet, since the last week of April and beginning of May, the USD has shown weakness as financial institutions have started to shift towards a more dovish Fed outlook – and they still may be proven correct.

The USD/ILS and Shadows from the U.S

The USD/ILS price movement has danced in step with USD weakness and today the U.S will release PMI reports for Manufacturing and Services. If these reports come in weaker it could spur on more bearish activity for the USD/ILS. However, tomorrow’s Consumer Sentiment reports via the University of Michigan could be a factor too, particularly via the Inflation Expectations reading.

Recent economic data from the U.S has shown signs the economy is slowing and consumers are tightening their spending. If the inflation data from tomorrow’s report comes in below expectations this could help the USD/ILS again trade lower. However, betting on the outcome of these reports before they are published is wagering. Traders also have to keep in mind this coming Monday is a holiday in the U.S and this means Forex volumes will be much lower early next week, this could create a bit of volatility and odd fluctuations in the USD/ILS which appear suddenly.

Potential for Volatility before the Long Weekend for the USD/ILS

The ability of the USD/ILS to trade lower early yesterday and stay within sight of short and near-term depth shows financial institutions are still leaning towards bearish instincts with the currency pair.

• Support levels near the 3.66500 to 3.66200 should be watched, if they prove durable in the short-term this could provide the ability for quick hitting jumps higher that are slight.
• When the U.S economic data is released later today via the Purchasing Managers Index readings, if there are surprises this could create volatility in the USD/ILS.

USD/ILS Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 3.67225

Current Support: 3.66620

High Target: 3.69775

Low Target: 3.64410

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#Forex Today: #Hawkish #FOMC Questions #Inflation Progress, #Commodities Tumble (23 May 2024)

The release of the US FOMC meeting minutes yesterday produced a hawkish surprise, with the participants showing serious concerns over persistent inflation and the prospect of rate cuts, leading to a selloff of commodities and boosting the US Dollar.

1. The US Federal Reserve released the minutes of its most recent policy meeting, which revealed two hawkish factors:Members are broadly worried that despite seeming progress on inflation over recent months, it is proving stubbornly persistent.Members discussed that they may need to hold rates at their currently relatively elevated levels for longer than expected.

However, it is worth noting that according to the CME FedWatch tool, there remains a consensus that the Fed will make its first rate cut at its forthcoming September meeting.

1. Markets reacted quite strongly to the FOMC minutes release. The most dramatic drops were in metals, with the price of Copper falling by several percentage points in just a few hours, killing the long trend trade there. The precious metals Gold and Silver fell quite strongly. Major equity indices fared much better, as after initial small knocks, the the NASDAQ 100 Index and the S&P 500 Index have risen to new all-time highs, although the the Dow Jones 30 Index is falling. Trend traders and day traders should be interested in getting long of the two major stock indices at all-time highs.
2. In the Forex market, since the Tokyo open, the strongest major currency is the New Zealand Dollar, while the Japanese Yen is the weakest. The US Dollar is doing little right now, but it rose yesterday and can be expected to get a tailwind from yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes.
3. Yesterday’s release of UK CPI data came in slightly higher than expected, with annualized inflation falling from 3.2% to 2.3%. A fall to 2.1% was expected. Core CPI also fell by less than expected. This will reduce the chances of the Bank of England cutting rates at either of its next two policy meetings, which is a disappointment for Prime Minister Sunak who yesterday called a general election for 4 July. The opposition Labour Party is expected to win by a landslide and return to power for the first time in 14 years.
4. There will be releases today of Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data for the USA, Germany, the UK, and France.

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#USDMXN Forecast:# USDollar Continues to Struggle Against #Mexican# Peso (6 May 2024)

• The US dollar initially fell during trading on Tuesday only to turn around and show signs of life again against the Mexican peso.
• However, it’s obvious that we are in a strong downtrend, and it does make a certain amount of sense considering that the market has seen so much of a selloff over the last several months.
• Yes, we recently had a spike higher, but we have turned around and almost completely wiped the entire thing out.

The US dollar has a stronger than usual interest rate backing it, but at the end of the day, it is still not anywhere near strong as the Mexican peso. You still get paid to hold the peso at the moment, and I think that’s something that a lot of institutional traders will be paying close attention to. With this, the downtrend is still going to be very much intact unless of course we get some type of major “risk off” type of move in the currency markets overall.

Technical Analysis

The 50-Day EMA is near the 16.85 level and is starting to drop. This is an area where traders will continue to struggle to break above there, so therefore I think you’ve got a situation where you have to be very cautious, but you do have to recognize that any move in that area probably invites selling pressure. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 16.50 pesos level, then the 16.33 pesos level almost certainly come into play. If we break down below there, then the 16 peso level is the next target, and that is an area that if you look at the monthly charts, is massive support.

All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy, and you will have to be cognizant of the fact that it is much easier to short this pair that it is to buy it, due to the interest rate differential. In fact, if you start to see the US dollar really take off to the upside against the Mexican peso, I would postulate that you might actually do better buying the US dollar against other currencies that don’t yield as much.

FDGDG

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#USDBRL #Forex Signal: US Dollar Continues to See Support Against #Brazilian Real (22 May 2024)

Potential signal:

I am a buyer of this pair at the 5.14 level, with the stop loss tucked just below the 50-Day EMA below. I would aim for the 5.22 region in the short term.

• The US dollar has initially fell during the trading session on Tuesday to test the crucial 50-Day EMA.
• This is an indicator that of course is very important, as a lot of traders will use it as dynamic support.
• In fact, when you look at the 50-Day EMA, it has acted as an uptrend line for some time now.
• Furthermore, it’s also worth noting that we have been in an uptrend for a while, and I think that continues to be a major factor here.

Even though the Brazilian real has more interest rate help, the reality is that the US dollar is in short supply for a lot of debt around the world, and of course with the Federal Reserve being relatively tight from a historical span, it does make a certain amount of sense that the US dollar continues attract a lot of attention. Furthermore, there are a lot of geopolitical issues around the world that could continue to keep the US dollar healthy and therefore favored against the emerging market currency such as the Brazilian real.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this pair is most certainly bullish as the 50-Day EMA is not only important, but it has been extraordinarily reliable. If we can break above the 5.14 level, it’s very likely that we could go looking to the 5.28 level which was where we had reached previously. Short-term pullbacks at this point in time should continue to be buying opportunities, as the US dollar of course is one of the favorite currencies around the world. Underneath all of that noise we also have the 200-Day EMA, which is near the 5.02 level.

I do recognize that there is a lot of noise above and it will probably be difficult to hang on to this trade to the upside, but over the longer term, I do believe that the US dollar continues to be more desirable than South American currencies. At this point in time, I think that the buyers still have the upper hand in the short term.

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