#EURUSD and #GBPUSD Forecast: June 2022

EUR/USD Forecast: June 2022

You need to pay close attention to the fact that much of the world looks as if it is slowing down, which has money looking for the US dollar.

The euro was somewhat bullish towards the end of the month of May, but we are going to continue to see a lot of issues around the world that could cause problems for risk appetite. That being said, it is obvious that the euro was oversold, so a bit of a bounce does make sense. This is what we have seen, and recently Christine Lagarde has suggested that perhaps the ECB may even be willing to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This has been bullish for the euro, albeit from a short-term perspective.

Keep in mind that as risk appetite continues to be in question, the euro will eventually suffer at the hands of the greenback. You cannot go in one direction forever, and that is going to be a situation where you finally get what we have seen over the last several days of the month. The 1.08 level above is an area that had previously been significant support, and as a result, “market memory” will come into the picture as it should offer resistance.

The Federal Reserve continues to be extraordinarily tight with its monetary policy, and of course, speakers continue to be hawkish as well. As long as that is the case, the US dollar will continue to strengthen. Beyond that, you need to pay close attention to the fact that much of the world looks as if it is slowing down, which has money looking for the US dollar.

If the market were to break above the 1.08 level on a daily close, it could push the euro toward the 1.10 level, but I think it is somewhat unlikely based on the bond rate differential and fear out there. Trends in the Forex market do tend to last for quite some time, but we do get the occasional vicious rally. As I write this article, we are in the midst of one of those rallies, but they offer an opportunity to get involved and start buying “cheap US dollars.” Signs of exhaustion will be jumped upon and pushed to reach the 1.04 level underneath, where we had bounced from previously. I believe that eventually, we will break down below that level, albeit more likely than not toward the end of the summer.

GBP/USD Forecast: June 2022

If they do change the attitude in Washington DC, it is possible that we could see this market turn back around.

The British pound recovered later in the month of May, but it is still a currency that has been very soft overall. The 1.22 level has offered a significant amount of support that caused a bit of a bounce, but really at this point, I think the British pound is setting up for yet another selling opportunity. The 1.27 level has been an area where we have seen both support and resistance, so I do think that might be a bit of a “decision point.”

The 1.22 level will more likely than not be targeted again, especially if we get some type of major “risk-off scenario”, which would drive the US dollar much higher. The US dollar will be used as a safety currency, and the Bank of England is doing itself no favors, suggesting that although inflation is a bit of an issue, they are nowhere near as aggressive as the Federal Reserve. As long as that is going to be the case, it makes a lot of sense that sellers will jump in and start selling every time they get an opportunity. This is a market that not only reaches the 1.22 level, but then breaks down to the 1.20 handle.

If we were to break above the 1.27 level, then I think the British pound may attempt to get to the 1.30 level, but that is an area that I think will be very difficult to overcome, at least not unless there is some type of major pivot when it comes to the Federal Reserve and its attitude. If they do change the attitude in Washington DC, it is possible that we could see this market turn back around. However, the Federal Reserve does not look likely to be anywhere near doing so, so we need to pay close attention to Federal Reserve speakers. After all, inflation is a major issue, but if inflation starts the slowdown in the United States, that could be the beginning of the end of US dollar strength. Pay attention to the rate of change when it comes to CPI, PPI, and PCE indicators. If they also start trending down at the same time, and in other words make a “lower high”, then it might have traders looking to dump the greenback.

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