#Gold and #WTI #CrudeOil Forecast (11 MAY 2022)
Gold Forecast: Markets Break Below Crucial 200-Day EMA
Rallies will more than likely be sold into, as we continue to see quite a bit of bearishness.
Gold markets gapped lower to kick off futures trading Tuesday morning, only to turn around and fill that gap. After that, the market then fell to break below the crucial $1850 level. At this point, it looks as if the gold market is going to continue going lower, perhaps falling drastically given enough time. The $1800 level looks to be the target next, and with the crucial CPI figures coming out on Wednesday, that could be the catalyst.
From a longer-term standpoint, you can make an argument that breaking below the 200-day EMA is a signal that we are starting to see even further weakness, so technical traders will be looking to short this market as well. Even if we do rally from here, I anticipate that the market will probably have to pay close attention to the reaction immediately after the breakout to the upside because there is so much in the way of noise between the 200-day EMA and the 50-day EMA which is sitting at the $1912 level and falling.
The market has been falling lower for quite some time, and it does seem like we are on the precipice of something big based on the momentum, which is why think Wednesday could be so crucial for gold. If we were to break down below the $1800 level, then the market will more than likely start to unwind quite drastically at that point. On the other hand, if we were to break above that 50-day EMA, it is likely that we could see gold try to make an attempt to the $1970 level, but that seems to be the most difficult move to make, so I do think that rallies will more than likely be sold into, as we continue to see quite a bit of bearishness.
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Racing to Bottom of Major Triangle
At this point, we have not broken out of the triangle, so I believe all traits have to be thought of as more or less a potential range-bound type of situation.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially tried to rally on Tuesday but gave back gains as we started to see more negativity around the world. The oil market has been bouncing around in a triangle for a while, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we continue to test both sides of it. That being said, we are racing toward the uptrend line, which could bring a lot of noise into the picture.
If we break down below the uptrend line, then it is likely that oil will continue to dive, reaching towards the $95 level, and then eventually the $90 level. I do not have much interest in trying to guess when or if we break down below this uptrend line. I will simply wait for some type of a daily close outside of this triangle to place my next longer-term trade.
It is worth noting that we broke below the 50-day EMA, but it is not the first time that we have since we have formed the triangle. In other words, although it is a negative turn of events, it is not necessarily one that I am overly concerned with. The market will continue to be one that is very noisy, due to the fact that there are so many confusing and conflicting inputs. The overall global economic picture is one of inflation, and perhaps a slowdown, both of which could cause problems for the oil market. If demand drops due to the economy slowing, then obviously there is a problem here. On the other hand, there are concerns about a lack of supply due to the Russian oil that is not hitting the markets. Adding more angst to the market is the fact that so much time had been spent not drilling during the pandemic.
The market breaking above the highs of the trading session on Tuesday would be a very bullish sign, perhaps opening up the possibility of a move back to the $110 level, which coincides with the downtrend line above. At this point, we have not broken out of the triangle, so I believe all traits have to be thought of as more or less a potential range-bound type of situation.
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