#Gold and #WTI #CrudeOil Forecast (09 JUNE 2022)
Gold Forecast: Markets Continue to Tread Water
If we are going to trade this market between now and the announcement on Friday, it’s very likely you will have to trade it from a short-term perspective, and in an environment that simply has nowhere to be.
Gold markets went back and forth on Wednesday as we are essentially killing time this week. The CPI numbers come out on Friday, and that is more than likely going to be the next catalyst for any significant amount of momentum. After all, there are a lot of questions about inflation and what the Federal Reserve will do next, although it certainly will be hawkish.
If we are going to trade this market between now and the announcement on Friday, it’s very likely you will have to trade it from a short-term perspective, and in an environment that simply has nowhere to be. You could trade the outer edges, assuming that we even get there between now and the announcement. If we do break above or below this box, then you have the ability to place a more significant trade. Breaking down below the bottom of the box opens up the possibility of a move down to the $1800 level, an area where we have seen a lot of interest previously. On the other hand, if we were to break above the $1875 level, it opens up the possibility of targeting $1900.
If we were to break above the $1900 level, then it’s possible that we could go as high as $2000. That will take some time to accomplish though, so I would not hold my breath. The only way I see that happening is if the CPI number misses horribly. Furthermore, we would probably need to see someone from the Federal Reserve suggest that they are second-guessing their tightening policy. That’s almost impossible at this point in time.
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Price Continues to Push Higher
We are going higher over the longer term.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market rallied rather significantly on Wednesday as we see plenty of buying pressure in this market. In fact, it looks as if we have now cleared the $120 level quite neatly, and it looks like we are ready to go much higher. After all, demand for energy should continue to pick up and we have major issues when it comes to supply.
You can see that the 50-day EMA is approaching the $110 level rather quickly, so I think that will be where we define the trend in general. Having said that, it looks very much like the market is willing to look at the previous triangle as a measuring stick, which could send this market all the way up to the $135 level. That does not mean that we will get there overnight, but it does make for a longer-term target. Because of this, I think that there will be plenty of people willing to get involved, especially if we continue to see issues with the Russian supply, which is something that seems to be a given.
Things have gotten so bad that Joe Biden has recently reached out to the Saudis to beg for oil. Interesting, considering that the United States is the world’s largest producer of oil just two years ago, but the failed green policies seem to be reversing that course. Because of this, it will come down to whether or not OPEC chooses to give up profits. Until we see significant demand destruction, it seems to be very unlikely that we will fall for a significant amount of time, be it from the supply/demand imbalance, or OPEC choosing to bring prices down by flooding the market. In other words, we are going higher over the longer term.
0 comments:
Post a Comment