#Gold and #WTI #CrudeOil Forecast (24 June 2022)

Gold Forecast: Gold Continues to Trade in the Same Range

Perhaps the gold market is trying to figure out and price in a stronger greenback.

Gold markets initially tried to rally on Thursday but gave up gains to show signs of hesitation. Ultimately, this is a market that I think has to make a bigger decision, with the $1800 level underneath offering a massive support level. It’s worth noting that the $1800 level has been the scene of a “double bottom,” and therefore we need to see what happens in the general vicinity because if it was to be broken down below, that could be a very negative turn of events.

In fact, if we do drift lower and break down below the $1800 level, then it’s likely that the market could go to the $1750 level, maybe even the $1700 level. That obviously would probably coincide with a strengthening US dollar, and of course interest rates rising again. That being said, we have to pay close attention to whether or not that correlation still exists, because it does fluctuate quite drastically.

The 200 Day EMA is sitting just above the $1850 level, and just below the 50 Day EMA. Both of the moving averages are relatively flat, so I think this is a market that is going to stay range-bound for a while. The top of the range is at the $1880 level, and therefore I think if we were to break above that level, then obviously would be very bullish for gold, opening up the possibility of a move to the $1920 level, and then eventually the $2000 level. That being said, it is going to take quite a bit of momentum to make that happen, so I think at this point we are simply looking at a market that is going back and forth and trying to figure out where we are going to go for the bigger move. I think that will probably be the main theme in the meantime, but it is worth noting that the most recent high was lower than the ones before it.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that we are going to break down, but it does suggest that there is quite a bit of negativity lurking in the shadows. If the US dollar continues to strengthen the way it has, it will obviously be negative for the gold market as well. Perhaps the gold market is trying to figure out and price in a stronger greenback.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Probing for Support

The 200 Day EMA is at the $95 level, and that could be the target on a breakdown.

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been very noisy on Thursday as we await inventory figures. At this point, we are most certainly pressuring the downside and the major trend line that I have marked on the chart. This is because there are so many different moving pieces right now that the oil market does not know exactly what to do.

One of the biggest struggles in this market is the fact that the economy appears to be slowing down. Ultimately, the market is likely to react to this because demand should drop. However, there are a lot of questions as to the supply, but the rate of change right now in the United States is somewhat concerning as far as gasoline demand is concerned. Having said that, longer-term we are still in an uptrend and it’s not until we break down below the $100 level that I think the actual trend itself is broken. The market is in an area that could provide a nice bounce, especially as we stabilized on Thursday after selling off again.

If we were to turn around, if we can break above the $110 level, it’s likely that we can continue to go higher, because we would also break the 50 Day EMA, and therefore go much higher. At that point, it’s likely that we go to find the $120 level. The $120 level has been a significant amount of resistance previously, and therefore it is a bit of a magnet for those who are trying to send this market much higher. After all, we have seen a lack of drilling and production during the pandemic, and as a result, there is a lot of catching up to do. Furthermore, the situation with Russian production continues to be an issue, as it is not spread out all over the world like it normally would be.

Ultimately, I use the $100 level as a bit of a proxy for an uptrend or downturn, and right now we’re still very much in an uptrend. Because of this, I like the idea of buying momentum to the upside, but if we break down below the $100 level, then I will have to flip the script and start shorting on signs of exhaustion. The 200 Day EMA is at the $95 level, and that could be the target on a breakdown.

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