#GOLD & #WTI Forecast: July 2022
Gold Forecast: July 2022
Eventually, I do think gold will become a very bullish market, but this month coming up is likely to be very noisy to say the least.
Gold markets at the end of June are sitting at a very interesting level, as it looks like we are trying to test a major uptrend line. The month of July will be about whether or not we can stay above the $1800 level. $1800 level is going to be a complex area of support, and as a result, I think a lot of traders are paying close attention to it. If we were to break down below the $1800 level, it’s likely that the market could start to accelerate to the downside.
You need to keep an eye on the 10-year yield, because the higher it goes, the lower gold will go, and of course vice versa. If we break above the 50 Week EMA, then we will more likely than not go looking to the $1880 level. Breaking above that would be a major turnaround, perhaps kicking off a move to the $1920 level, perhaps even the $2000 level after that. I think volatility is probably the one thing you can probably count on during the month, so it’s likely that you need to look at this market through the prism of a short-term market that wants to go back and forth before it makes a bigger move.
If and when we break below that $1800 level, then it’s likely that we could drop all the way down to the $1700 level. A lot of this is going to come down to chatter coming out of central banks around the world, as the interest rate situation continues to be a major driver. That being said, you will have to spend most of the month paying attention to Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, and many other central bankers. Eventually, I do think gold will become a very bullish market, but this month coming up is likely to be very noisy to say the least.
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: July 2022
I think that there would be plenty of buyers on short-term dips, and it would not surprise me at all to see this market reach the $120 level during the month.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been bullish for some time, but that does not necessarily mean that it has gone straight up in the air. The market has seen a couple of dips as of late, but when you zoom out, you can see that we are in a bit of an up-trending channel. The $100 level sits under current trading, and of course, is an area that will attract a lot of attention. I suspect that the $100 level will lead the way for the month of July.
More likely than not, I think that there would be plenty of buyers on short-term dips, and it would not surprise me at all to see this market reach the $120 level during the month. Breaking above there is a very bullish sign, allowing the market to go to fresh, new highs, perhaps attacking the $130 level. Ultimately, that is my base case scenario, especially as some of the bigger producers in the Middle East claim that they are already producing at full tilt.
However, if we do see economies start to crash, oil will suffer as a result. After all, less demand for crude oil would be much lower. Also, you need to keep an eye on that $100 level, because as things stand right now, crude oil is the last of the commodities to continue holding on to a very bullish attitude. We have seen copper crash, natural gas lose 1/3 of its value, industrial metals get hammered, and of course lumber as well.
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