#INDICES ANALYSIS: #DAX30,#SP500,#DOWJONES,#NASDAQ (09 JUNE 2022)

S&P 500 Forecast: Consolidation Ahead of CPI

For the Thursday session, you might be better off sitting on the sidelines.

The S&P 500 fell a bit on Wednesday as the 50-day EMA has offered a bit of resistance. At this point, I think the market is more or less waiting for the CPI figures coming out on Friday to determine where we go next. The world is waiting to see what the Federal Reserve is going to do, and the CPI numbers for the month of May could be yet another piece of the inflationary puzzle that traders will pay close attention to.

For the Thursday session, you might be better off sitting on the sidelines, but if you are a short term trader, you may look at this as a nice range bound situation that you can trade on short-term charts, because that’s all you’re going to get unless something significant happens in the next 24 hours. For those who are a bit more along the lines of a swing trader like I am, this doesn’t offer much in the way of interest.

Dow Jones Technical Analysis: Declining Due to Resistance

Our expectations indicate more decline for the index during its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to record losses in its last sessions, by -0.81%, to lose the index by -269.24 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 32,910.91, after rising by 0.80% during Tuesday's trading.

Technically, the index’s decline came as a result of the stability of the important resistance level 33,271.90. This is resistance that we had referred to in our previous reports, in light of the dominance of the corrective bearish trend in the short term. It is trading within the range of a bearish price channel, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period. We note that divergence is negative with the relative strength indicators, after reaching the areas of severe overbought. This is in an exaggerated manner compared to the movement of the index, with the start of the influx of negative signals from them. There is continuing negative pressure of its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, our expectations indicate more decline for the index during its upcoming trading, as long as the resistance 33,271.90 remains intact, to target the main support level 32,000.

DAX Forecast: Index Pulls Back from Crucial 200-Day EMA

In the short term, I think €13,500 would probably be a major accomplishment by the short-sellers.

The DAX fell rather hard on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of negativity. Stock markets around the world are trying to figure out whether or not inflation, and central bank policy, will continue to work against stocks. It’s kind of interesting to see how this is running concurrently around the world. The German index obviously is not going to be immune to global issues, especially as so many of the major constituents of the DAX are massive exporters.

I think it’s much more likely that we break to the downside, but in the short term it looks like we are more likely than not willing to hang around and chop back and forth. Because of this, if you are a short-term trader you will more than likely continue to look at these two moving averages as barriers. Once we do break out of this area, it would make sense that we could go down to one of the blue circles that I have on the chart. I think that is the most likely scenario but I would also point out that there has been a significant amount of momentum, so I think what we will probably see is an attempt to get down to one of those. Whether or not we break to a fresh, new low is a completely different question, but in the short term, I think €13,500 would probably be a major accomplishment by the short-sellers.

NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Consolidating Below 13,000

I still look for signs of exhaustion to sell into at this point.

The NASDAQ 100 initially rallied on Wednesday but gave bank gains to show signs of weakness again. That being said, we are in a consolidation area that is well defined and will probably hold until we get the CPI figures on Friday. After all, the world is paying close attention to inflation in the United States and what the Federal Reserve will do as a reaction.

Pay attention to the bond market, because if the interest rate suddenly collapses, then it’s likely that we could see a significant amount of relief in the NASDAQ 100. After all, the market is likely to continue seeing the usual influence of rates on technology stocks. If rates fall, then it’s likely that we will see a lot of bullish pressure in this market, but keep in mind that the exact opposite can happen. Because of this, it is very important to keep the idea of correlation in mind. If we break down below the 4400 level, then it’s likely that we can look into the 12,000 level again, and then possibly the 11,500 level after that. Anything below that level will continue the overall negative attitude in this market.

Without some help from the Fed, I just don’t see how the NASDAQ 100 suddenly picks up. I do think that eventually, we could get a nice opportunity, but we are nowhere near it right now, so I still look for signs of exhaustion to sell into at this point. Inflation lis ikely to continue roaring, so that could be something worth paying attention to.

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