Monthly Forecast #SP500,#NASDAQ100: July 2022

S&P 500 Forecast: July 2022

I do not trust rallies without the Federal Reserve changing its tune.

The S&P 500 continues to drift lower over the last several weeks as we start to look at the month of July. The month of July is likely going to continue the bearish trend, as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy. After all, they are anticipated to raise interest rates significantly, and that works against the value of stocks in general. The market looks as if it is going to go looking to reach the 200-week EMA, perhaps even the 3500 level after that.

That being said, bear markets are awfully difficult to short aggressively, because there is almost always a reason for buying. If for no other reason than the occasional short squeeze when it comes to an options expiration, forced buying, or even forced covering of short positions. Nonetheless, I do think that the month will be negative unless, of course, we can somehow break above the 4000 level. At that point, then we begin to try to turn things around. At this point, it’s not until we break above the 4200 level that I think the momentum has shifted to the upside, and at that point then things become bullish.

However, the Federal Reserve tied in the monetary policy in America is going to continue to weigh upon the markets, especially if they continue to be very aggressive. There will be the occasional “bear market rally”, which can be quite violent. However, every time we rally a few percent, there will probably be people willing to get out of the market that has been struggling for a while. In other words, there is going to be a persistent amount of downward pressure, at least until the fundamentals change.

Furthermore, companies are going to have to write down estimates, and comps are going to get much more difficult. At this point, I do think that there is an area between 3500 and 3400 that should be a significant amount of support, so if we were to break below there, that could open up a massive amount of selling. I don’t see that happening, but if it does things could get rather ugly. I anticipate that we will probably continue to drop for a while, and then try to find our footing by the end of the month. Whether or not it holds is still a completely open question. I do not trust rallies without the Federal Reserve changing its tune.

NASDAQ 100 Forecast: July 2022

It is very likely that we will see more malaise in this market during the course of summer, so I believe that you will probably see a lot of a “sell the rallies” type of attitude.

The NASDAQ 100 continued to struggle yet again in the month of June, and it’s very likely that July will show a bit of the same. However, we are approaching an area that could offer a bit of support, especially near the 10,500 level. It is because of this that I believe that the NASDAQ 100 may stabilize a bit for the month of July, perhaps consolidating and trying to work off some of the excess selling pressure. The market has been eviscerated because the Federal Reserve has no other choice but to tighten rather aggressively.

When you look at this chart, you can see that the market is hanging near the 200-week EMA, is therefore there could be a bit of technical support here as well. This is a market that I think goes back-and-forth during the month of July, but probably has more of a tilt to the downside. After all, the monetary policy is not going to work in favor of the NASDAQ, and by extension, the NASDAQ 100.

However, there is only so far that the market can fall, and I believe that there will be a lot of support to be found near the 10,500 level, so if we were to break below there the next target would be the 10,000 handle, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we had seen resistance previously. As per usual, you will have to watch all of the major technology companies such as Meta, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, etc.

If those major corporations continue to get sold off, there’s almost no chance that the NASDAQ 100 will be able to take off. However, if some of the bigger technology companies do start to pick up a bit of a bid, maybe just due to the fact that they have gotten “cheap”, that would be the bullish case for the NASDAQ 100. However, it is very likely that we will see more malaise in this market during the course of summer, so I believe that you will probably see a lot of a “sell the rallies” type of attitude. It is not until we break above the 13,500 level that I believe the market has turned around enough to believe, something that I just don’t see happening.

For more forex gold Indices analysis, Signals and Account management services text me on my telegram: Claramellor

best Forex signal telegram group

#Singapore #Dubai #Brasil  #UAE #USA #Amsterdam #Brussels #Dublin #Lisbon #London #Paris #fx #fxinvestment #fxanalysis #fxtrader #scalping #xauusdgold #xauusdsignal