#Gold and #WTI #Crude Oil Forecast (5 AUGUST 2022)

 

Gold Forecast: Market Continue to Threaten the Same Area

The Gold market has to decide what it wants to do over the longer term, and Friday might be the day that we figure it out.

• Gold markets have rallied rather significantly during the day, as we have gone back and forth during the trading session before shooting straight up in the air.
• That the market is likely to continue being driven by the bond markets, and whatever is happening with the yield in the United States.
• As yields fall, it makes gold much more attractive.

As we have rallied rather significantly from that point, the market is likely to continue to see the $1800 level as important, as it is not only a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it is also an area that has seen quite a bit of action in the past. The 50 Day EMA is in this area as well, so that makes quite a bit of sense that we would see a little bit of dynamic resistance here as well. Ultimately, this is a market that I think given enough time will have to decide what it wants to do over the longer term, and Friday might be the day that we figure it out.

While it is more likely than not that we will see a volatile session, the real question is going to be whether or not the Federal Reserve will have to remain extraordinarily tight with their monetary policy, and if we get a very strong jobs number, it’s possible that we could see the interest rates rise again in the United States, as it will almost certainly mean that the Federal Reserve will have to step on the gas when it comes to tightening. On the other hand, if we were to see a less strong job number, then the idea might be that the economy is slowing down and the Federal Reserve will have to abandon plans to tighten as quickly as they say they will.

It really doesn’t matter because the market will do whatever it wants to do. Looking at this general vicinity, I think it’s likely that we continue to see a lot of noise in the $1800 level, and therefore it will come down to where we close on Friday at the end of the day. This not only tells you what the reaction would be to the announcement but whether or not people are comfortable holding gold through the weekend.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Finally Breaks Down

Rallies more likely than not will set up for selling opportunities for those who are patient enough to look for signs of exhaustion.

• The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has finally broken down during the trading session on Thursday as the market is starting to price and the idea of a recession.
• The market looks very likely to continue seeing massive downward pressure.
• The demand is going to be determined by the fact that we are heading into a recession.

Looking to the $80 level

The US dollar strengthening would also put negative pressure on the oil markets, but at this point in time, it’s not even that for once. Now that we are well below the 200 Day EMA, and of course the bottom of that hammer that suggested massive support at the $90 level, it’s likely that crude oil goes looking to the $80 level over the next several weeks. Keep in mind that the jobs number comes out during the trading session on Friday, so there will be a bit of volatility due to that as well. Nonetheless, markets will continue to look through the prism of noise more than anything else, and as long as the market is noisy, it is one that people don’t want to be invested in with a large amount of money. The attitude of the crude markets shows just how erratic the world is at the moment.

I believe that by the end of the day Friday, we may have a lot of questions answered, but then again one would’ve thought that had been the case by now anyways. Demand seems to be dropping, and it appears that most traders believe this as well, because quite frankly OPEC has decided to barely budge it comes to output production. If they do that and we can’t see a rally in price, then that tells you most of what you need to know to begin with.

It is not until we break above the 200 Day EMA on a daily close that I would consider going long, and even then I think it’s probably unlikely that we would be in the “all clear” anytime soon. I think the only thing you can count on is a lot of noise and volatility, which unfortunately is something that we’ve had far too much of in financial markets as of late. Rallies more likely than not will set up for selling opportunities for those who are patient enough to look for signs of exhaustion.

For more forex gold Indices analysis, Signals, and Account management services text me on my telegram: Claramellor

Fill 1-day Account management free trial: https://forms.gle/38sbhZgWG5HFzFd87

Best Forex Signal telegram

Forex Account Management Services

#Singapore #Dubai #Brasil  #UAE #USA #Amsterdam #Brussels #Dublin #Lisbon #London #Paris #fx #fxinvestment #fxanalysis #fxtrader #scalping #xauusdgold #xauusdsignal