#Gold WTI Oil Forecast: Attempting to Save Itself| #Oil Remains Firmly in Red on Demand Fears,Strong #Dollar (19 SEPTEMBER 2022)

Gold Forecast: Attempting to Save Itself

I am looking to short this market until something fundamentally changes.

Gold markets bounced a bit during the trading session on Friday, after breaking through major support on Thursday. While this is a somewhat encouraging sign, there is still a lot of resistance above, and you would have to think that a lot of people were more than willing to get out of gold after trying to buy the bottom. As soon as they get close to being breakeven, they will jump out of that position as it is extraordinarily uncomfortable to be underwater in this type of environment.

That being said, you need to see some type of exhaustion candle in order to start shorting. On the other hand, we could just simply turn around and break down through the bottom of the candlestick from the Friday session. If that happens, then it’s likely that we continue to see a gold selloff. In that environment, and I do believe that’s the environment we will find ourselves in, it’s likely that we go down to the $1500 level over the longer term. We will get the occasional rally, probably in line with the US dollar losing a little bit of the ground from time to time. Nonetheless, both the US dollar and the gold selling pressure should continue going forward, as we should see a lot of momentum continuing.

Eyeing Both the Dollar and US Bond Markets

• On the upside, the $1720 level should be a bit of a barrier, right along with the 50-Day EMA which sits above there and is starting to drop.
• Regardless, you need to keep an eye on not only the US dollar but perhaps more importantly the US bond markets, because if interest rates continue to climb, that will be another sign that you could see even more downward pressure on precious metals.
• Regardless, I don’t have any interest in trying to fight this market, and you can see that the potential double bottom that I marked on the chart has now been blown through.

It is probably worth recognizing that the $1680 level that had marked the potential support goes back as being important for the last several years. With that in mind, it’s a serious breach of support, and these typically do not happen in a vacuum. Because of this, I am looking to short this market until something fundamentally changes. Any rally at this point in time that show signs of exhaustion should be thought of as a potential opportunity.

WTI Oil: Oil Remains Firmly in Red on Demand Fears, Strong Dollar

WTI oil started the week in negative mode, falling 1.7% during Asian and early European trading on Monday.

Crude oil is pressured by fears of recession that would significantly slow global economy and lower demand for energies, while strong dollar on prospects of further aggressive steps of the Fed towards its monetary policy, adds to negative sentiment

The contract remains in red following three consecutive weeks of losses, as well as falling for the fourth straight month.

Fresh weakness probes again through pivotal Fibo support at $83.13 (38.2% of $6.52/$130.48, Apr 2020/Mar 2022 rally), with firm break here to generate bearish signal for retest of key near-term support at $81.17 (nine-month low, posted on Sep 8).

Bearish technical studies on daily and weekly chart support the action, with upticks expected to provide better selling opportunities.

Upticks will face solid resistance from daily Tenkan-sen ($85.50) which should ideally cap.

Only break above $90 zone (daily Kijun-sen / Sep 14 lower top / psychological) would sideline bear

Res: 85.50; 86.16; 88.68; 89.40.
Sup: 82.73; 81.17; 80.00; 78.48.

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