#EURUSD & #GBPUSD Forecast: Weekly Forecast 13–19 Nov 2022

EURUSD Forecast: Weekly Forecast 13th – 19th November

The ability of the EUR/USD to climb above the 1.00000 level this time around may be different.

The EUR/USD climbed above parity last week and sustained upwards momentum, this as the weekend came into sight while the Forex pair continued to challenge resistance.

The EUR/USD will start this week of trading near the 1.03500, having accomplished not only a climb above parity, but also having sustained its bullish trend going into the weekend. The last time the EUR/USD traded near its current value was on the 11th of August, when a flourish of momentum upwards in the second week of that month exhibited brief bullish optimism before drifting back into the long-term bearish trend the EUR/USD has suffered.

The ability of the EUR/USD to climb above the 1.00000 level this time around may be different. While it may not be time to declare the creation of a new bullish trend for buyers to continuously speculate on, there does seem to be a shift in trading sentiment taking place. The upwards direction of the EUR/USD has mirrored most other major currency pairs teamed against the USD. Last week’s late dose of ‘better’ than expected inflation data in the U.S, helped create another spur in the EUR/USD kicking it upwards yet again.

Six Month Charts should be looked at for the EUR/USD to Gain Perspective

As experienced traders know the EUR/USD is still trading at what can easily be perceived as lower values even at the current ratio of 1.03300. While the EUR/USD has traded below parity since the middle of August, this is not a long-time common occurrence. Traders should refresh their perspectives by looking at six month charts.

There will not be a lot of economic data from Europe this week to ‘spin’ behavioral sentiment. Global equity indices remain fragile even though they certainly put in solid gains last week. Europe will see services and manufacturing data from Germany early next week, but this is not likely to stir behavioral sentiment in the EUR/USD too much either. The EUR/USD seems largely reactive to financial institutions positioning their ‘holdings’ according to their viewpoints of the U.S Federal Reserve.

• U.S CPI data increased less than expected last week, this ‘positive’ outcome has increased the notion the U.S Federal Reserve will start becoming less hawkish regarding its interest rate policy.
• The ability to sustain value over the 1.00000 mark on Tuesday of last week, even before the CPI data from the U.S on Thursday was published, is another potential bullish signal for EUR/USD speculators.

Price Velocity and the EUR/USD Move Higher were Quick Last Week

Speculative zeal in the EUR/USD may build in the coming days, but it does not mean the climb achieved by the Forex pair will resemble last week’s solid results. The bursts upwards in the EUR/USD demonstrated since the 3rd of November has certainly been solid, but simple one way avenues do not exist in Forex, traders need to remain cautious and practice risk management. While the 1.04000 ratio and above now may look very attractive, trading conditions may make this task harder to accomplish than hoped.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.00600 to 1.06300

Support should be watched attentively by traders this week to guard against potential selling reactions in the EUR/USD from financial houses which may believe the currency pair has been overbought. When the EUR/USD opens on Monday the 1.03000 is a logical ratio to watch carefully, if this level can hold its value throughout the day, this would be another positive signal for the EUR/USD.

It should be remembered that on Thursday of last week the EUR/USD was still trading under the 1.00000 for a moment as selling increase, perhaps via profit taking by large financial houses. However support actually did rather well late last week and when challenged, buying momentum did show exuberance in the EUR/USD.

The EUR/USD is now within sight of intriguing resistance. The sudden change in behavioral sentiment has been swift enough to cause surprise among many speculators. The ability of the EUR/USD to now have the 1.03700 value as a legitimate target is attractive. If the 1.03900 mark sees quick testing early this week, the EUR/USD could easily climb above 1.04000. The currency pair saw a lot a fast price velocity last week and speculators should be prepared for more as equilibrium is sought. Risk management is important and should be practiced when wagering on the EUR/USD.

GBP/USD Forecast: Weekly Forecast 13th – 19th November

The GBP/USD continued to march upwards last week as the currency pair has not only fought off lows, but has begun to come within sight of ‘accepted’ price equilibrium.

The GBP/USD continued to march upwards last week as the currency pair has not only fought off lows, but has begun to come within sight of ‘accepted’ price equilibrium.

Speculators who have been anticipating another solid bout of selling pressure to erupt in the GBP/USD have likely become frustrated the past couple of weeks. Certainly reversals lower in the GBP/USD are part of the landscape in Forex, but it appears for the moment that the worst of the bearish trend in the GBP/USD has been brushed away. Last week’s low for the GBP/USD was on Monday the 7th of November.

Intriguingly the low which was put in early last week didn’t break through the lows seen in the previous two days of trading, meaning technically the GBP/USD has incrementally build stronger support levels. While fundamental data elements within the GBP/USD still remains rather negative, it does seem from a speculative viewpoint that behavioral sentiment has shifted and technically driven trading is driving momentum upwards.

Perhaps the Worst of the News has been digested by Financial Houses for the GBP/USD

While economic conditions regarding inflation and recessionary data remain troublesome, many financial houses may be looking at mid and long-term prospects for the GBP/USD and wagering on upside. As one of the most traded currency pairs globally, the GBP/USD is a solid barometer of behavioral sentiment and its results the past two weeks do mirror what seems to be a tidal shift in direction for the USD.

• This past Friday, U.K GDP data came in more negative than expected with a drop of 0.6% compared to the estimate of 0.4%, but the GBP/USD still managed to rise significantly before going into the weekend.
• This coming Wednesday, the U.K will conduct its Monetary Policy Report Hearings with Bank of England members speaking, but there are unlikely to be many major surprises.

Upwards Momentum has been fast so Traders may want to be Cautious about Reactions

The GBP/USD is set to begin this week of trading near the 1.18300 ratio, the last time this value had been seen was on the 26th of August. Speculators should not get too over confident regarding the bullish trend upwards which has been demonstrated the past week, but they should not be fearful of the direction either. Risk management which guards against the potential of sudden downturns should be used. Day traders as always need to keep their perspectives geared towards price action which takes into account hourly gyrations.

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for GBP/USD is 1.15690 to 1.20750

Support below technically does look rather impressive. It seems farfetched to believe the GBP/USD is suddenly going to resume its immense bearish trend and find it breaking below 1.10000 anytime soon. Yes, it could happen, but more likely are polite technical tests of nearby ratios which could be natural targets via transactions in the GBP/USD being generated by financial houses. Certainly the 1.18000 level should be watched. And support near the 1.17300 mark appears to be significant since it was the high achieved on Thursday, this before price velocity increased and the GBP/USD jumped higher on Friday.

If the 1.17000 mark should become vulnerable a test of the 1.16700 to 1.16200 should be watched. Anything below the 1.16000 ratio this week would be a reaction to negative market news being generated which is an unknown quantity at this time. Risk management should be used, and traders looking to short the GBP/USD should make sure their targets are realistic, because it doesn’t appear a truly profound change in attitude is going to develop short-term.

Speculators who want to take advantage of the current upside movement should remain optimistic, but cautious. The GBP/USD has gained a substantial amount the past two weeks. Financial houses and speculators are certainly use to seeing the GBP/USD trade near the 1.20000 and higher, but the bullish trend which saw plenty of price velocity upwards last week could slow down for a moment and take a breather. Traders may want to remain bullish, but conservative speculators may want to wait for support levels to be touched before they trigger buying positions in the GBP/USD. After suffering a long term bearish trend, the GBP/USD may be changing direction, but it is unlikely to follow a one way path higher. Buying caution is advised.

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