Weekly Forecast #XAUUSD #SP500 & #OIL: 21–25 Nov 2022

Posted by Clara Mellor on 05:10 with No comments

The past week has seen one of the quietest weeks seen in the markets in months, as the Forex Commodity market consolidates following an emerging consensus that the Federal Reserve won’t be forced into any more hawkish tilts in the foreseeable future.

Gold

Gold markets will continue to be very noisy, but what’s interesting about this past week is that we almost did nothing. After all, the previous week had been extraordinarily bullish based upon the CPI numbers coming in a little lower than anticipated in the United States, but there was actually no follow-through. What does this tell me? It tells me that there is not a whole lot of faith in the idea of the Federal Reserve slowing things down. In fact, James Bullard has said just in the last 24 hours that people need to get used to the Federal Reserve being “higher for longer.” In this environment, I suspect that the next move for gold is lower, although I’m not calling for some type of meltdown.

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen rather hard during the course of the week, to slice through the $80 level. At this point, it looks like traders are starting to focus on the idea of a lack of demand, as economies around the world continue to struggle. If we break down below the lows of last month, it’s likely that this market will continue to drift toward the 200-Week EMA. After that, it could open up a move all the way down to the $60 level.

More likely than not, we probably will get some type of bounce, but bounces will almost certainly present fading opportunities for those who are willing to short this market.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 had initially tried to rally during the course of the week but found a lot of trouble at the 50-Week EMA. By doing so, it shows that the market is running out of momentum, and much like the gold market, it must be noted that we had a massive surge higher after the CPI figures from last week, and then simply went nowhere. What this tells me is that there is a real threat to the downside at this point. Breaking below the 3900 level opens up new short positions in my account.


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