#XAUUSD (#Gold) & #WTI #CrudeOil Technical Analysis (29 November 2022)
XAU/USD (Gold) Technical Analysis: Gold Price May Face a Sell-off
In the long term and according to the performance of the monthly chart, gold price XAU/USD breached below the double top pattern and entered a bearish movement.
The US dollar recovered before announcing a package of economic data and important events that contributed to selling the XAU/USD (gold) price towards the support level of $1740 an ounce. This happened before settling around the level of $1754 at the time of writing the analysis, waiting for any new news.
The gold market will monitor the course of China's measures to contain the outbreak of the epidemic and at the same time plans to revive the Chinese economy, in addition to the course of tightening the US Federal Reserve's policy and the US labor market numbers by the end of the week.
XAU/USD (gold) Forecast
The bullish trend in XAU/USD (gold) prices is seeing a trend reversal as inflation and interest rate in the US continue to increase. This year has been bearish for gold prices but there is hope for a bullish reversal as the Fed looks to ease as it raises interest rates. Investors can expect gold's bullish trend to continue as the inflation rate continues to remain at a high level while the rise in interest rates may slow.
In the long term and according to the performance of the monthly chart, gold price XAU/USD breached below the double top pattern and entered a bearish movement. And at the moment, there is a sharp bullish reversal that may signal the start of another bullish move. And if gold prices continue the bearish move instead, then $1390-$1430 and $1500-$1550 areas to watch for a bullish reaction.
On the other hand, the XAU/USD (gold) price on the weekly chart remains near the previous upward movement's high. There is no higher high printed on the chart yet which means there is a risk of a bearish reversal. And if gold prices start to fall again, a bearish continuation may occur.
Investors may want to remain cautious for now. According to the performance on the daily chart, the XAU/USD gold price is going through a downward movement after the new higher high on the chart. It is supported at $1,730 or the previous swing high. And if the price can bounce back and move up with a strong upward movement and print a new higher high, then the upward movement may develop into a new bullish trend.
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Hanging On By a Thread
If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick, it’s likely that we could go down to the $72.50 level, and then possibly the $70 level.
- The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market is basically hanging on by a thread right now, as we had broken through a major support level, but then turned around later in the day to form a bit of a hammer.
- There have been multiple attempts to break down, and the market continues to push higher.
- We have a lot of concerns out there that could have a major influence on what happens in this market next.
Fundamental Factors Affecting the Crude Oil Price Today
To begin with, a lot of people are concerned about global growth. If global growth starts to fall apart, that means that demand for crude oil will continue to be a major issue. As demand drops, the price drops. Yes, there are a lot of concerns when it comes to supply, but at this point in time, it seems like demand is a bigger shock to the system.
One cannot rule out the possibility that OPEC decided to get involved, because member states have stepped into the futures market in order to buoy prices. Remember, OPEC needs this market to be somewhat lively, in order to protect their own economies. If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick, it’s likely that we could go down to the $72.50 level, and then possibly the $70 level. The $70 level courses a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people would pay attention to, and it would obviously catch a lot of media attention if we broke down below it.
On the other hand, if we were to turn around and take out the top of the inverted hammer from the trading session on Friday, it opens up a move above the $80 level. In that scenario, we probably have a little bit more of a correction, which I think smart money will stop in and start shorting at the first signs of exhaustion. This is a market that continues to be very noisy, and it does seem like it is trying to find some type of bottom, but we clearly haven’t found it quite yet. Expect a lot of choppy and erratic behavior, especially through the rest of the week as we have to pay close attention to the Federal Reserve and expectations around the job market as well as the Core PCE figures.
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