Gold & Crude Oil Forecast :17 March 2023

Gold Forecast: Markets Looks Tired

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently close to the $1860 level, and this should be considered a significant support level.

• The gold the market experienced a lot of back-and-forth movement during Thursday's trading session.
• It is likely that the market is experiencing a lot of indecision, given the recent parabolic movement in the price of gold.
• While this doesn't necessarily indicate a major change in trend, it does suggest that a pullback is likely to happen soon.

If the US dollar gains strength, especially due to the inflow of funds into the bond market, a pullback in gold is even more likely. However, the $1900 level underneath should provide some support, given its past role as both support and resistance. Additionally, gold may be experiencing an uptick in demand due to concerns about the banking system, as well as the expected bailouts that may lead to currency depreciation.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently closed to the $1860 level, and this should be considered a significant support level. Any pullback that approaches this area should be viewed as a potential buying opportunity unless there is a sudden surge in bonds and the US dollar. On the other hand, the $1950 level is likely to act as a significant resistance barrier. If the market can break through this level, it may test the recent highs once again. Breaking through $2000 would be a major milestone for gold.

Gold Remains Attractive

Despite its recent volatility, gold remains attractive as a haven investment. It has been consistent in this regard over the past few months, even with the significant pullback in February. Buying on dips may be the best approach for this market. More likely than not, there will be a lot of traders out there looking to get involved, especially as there are so many issues around the world from a financial standpoint that gold will become even more attractive as there are concerns about a credit crisis.

Ultimately, the gold market is experiencing a lot of noise and indecision. A pullback is likely soon, especially if the US dollar gains strength. However, the $1900 level should provide some support, and the $1860 level should be considered a major support level. Buying on dips may be the best approach, as gold remains an attractive haven investment. As always, it is important to proceed with caution and have a long-term investment strategy in place.

Crude Oil Forecast: Continues to Look Negative Overall

It is worth noting that crude oil is highly sensitive to global economic growth. If growth remains stagnant or slows down, demand for crude oil will likely be limited.

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market displayed reluctance to move during Thursday's trading session. This is unsurprising given the considerable selling pressure, which may have exhausted the market. With prices below $70, it is likely that the market will continue to decline toward $65. Any short-term rallies should be viewed as opportunities to sell short, as the world confronts the possibility of a deeper recession than previously expected.

It is worth noting that crude oil is highly sensitive to global economic growth. If growth remains stagnant or slows down, demand for crude oil will likely be limited. As of now, I am not interested in purchasing crude oil, as it has proven to be very difficult, and it now seems as if all rallies will continue to act as an opportunity for short sellers to get involved yet again. Quite frankly, I think we are setting up for something rather ugly when it comes to the global economy, and of course, crude oil will be front and center.

Brent (UK Oil)

• The Brent market has been fluctuating during the trading session, indicating weakness as there is no sign of a bear market rebound.
• The breach of the $75 level increases the likelihood of a decline toward $70.
• Any upward movement may present a good selling opportunity, given the sluggish pace of the global economy. Alternatively, the market may attempt to price in any signs of strength.

A breakdown below the bottom of Wednesday's candlestick could lead to a drop below $70, potentially triggering a significant downward trend. Any rally at this point is vulnerable, particularly as the 50-Day EMA is starting to trend lower and the $77.50 level above is a significant resistance level. As of now, buying oil appears unwise as there are so many things out there working against the economy. Of note would be the Credit Suisse bailout that’s currently going on in Switzerland, suggesting that there could be more trouble ahead for those who are paying attention.

Quite frankly, at this point, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where crude oil starts to take off unless the US dollar starts to tank quite rapidly. That seems to be unlikely since there are so many people out there throwing money at the bond market in America.

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