#Gold & #CrudeOil Forecast: 10 March 2023
Gold Forecast: Markets Trying to Bounce Back
The gold market experienced a bit of a rally during Thursday's trading session as it found support at the 200-Day EMA.
- The gold market experienced a bit of a rally during Thursday's trading session as it found support at the 200-Day EMA.
- However, there is concern that this support may not hold, given the presence of a major selloff candlestick indicating potential trouble on the horizon.
- If the market were to break below the 200-Day EMA, it could go down to the $1800 level, which is also the 50% Fibonacci level.
A breakdown below the 50% Fibonacci level would be a negative sign and could lead to a drop to the $1755 level, where the 61.8% Fibonacci level sits and may offer potential support. However, if the market were to drop below this level, it could send the market even lower, potentially returning to the lows that were reached before the rally began.
It's important to note that the US dollar has a negative correlation to gold, and rising interest rates also pose a concern for the market. There have already been three major selloff candlesticks since the market reached its high price. This volatility is reflected in the market's position between the 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA indicators.
Gold Will Continue to Get Pushed Around
Given the likelihood of continued volatility, traders should approach the market with caution and focus on shorter time frames. Position size should be kept reasonable, as the only thing traders can control is their own position. It is unlikely that traders will want to go "all in" until the market breaks out of these moving averages.
Overall, while the gold market has found some support at the 200-Day EMA, there is a risk that it may break down below this level, potentially leading to further declines. The market is also facing headwinds from the US dollar and the prospect of rising interest rates. Traders should exercise caution and focus on shorter time frames while keeping position size reasonable. It may be wise to avoid large trades until the market shows signs of breaking out of its current range. Once it does, then we should have a bit of confidence build up, and a bit of “FOMO” back into the market. With all the noise coming out of the bond market and of course the US dollar, gold will continue to get pushed around on a daily basis, so you should look at this as a very choppy and short-term range-bound market for the time being.
Crude Oil Forecast: Still Looks Somewhat Lost
Until the market breaks out of its current range, traders should assume that it will continue to move back and forth between the $72.50 and $82.50 levels for the WTI Crude Oil market and the $77.50 and $89 levels for the Brent market.
WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)
The WTI Crude Oil market experienced a bit of a rally during Thursday's trading session but remains stuck in a range due to a lot of back-and-forth noisy behavior. The market is currently sitting just below the 50-Day EMA, which may be causing some resistance. The $82.50 level also appears to be a significant resistance barrier, and with the 200-Day EMA racing towards that area, it is likely to be even more resistant.
Significant support lies underneath at the $72.50 level, which may extend all the way down to the $70 level. However, the lack of movement in one direction or the other is a cause for concern. Traders should exercise caution and avoid putting a lot of money into this market until a clear trend emerges. Because of this, the market will probably continue to be very choppy, and therefore we need to look at this through the prism of short-term charts, perhaps looking for scalping opportunities from time to time or short-term swing trades. However, as far as a trend is concerned, we’re still a long way from seeing that in this market.
Brent (UK Oil)
- Similarly, the Brent market also rallied during the trading session and is sitting just below the 50-Day EMA.
- The market faces significant resistance near the $89 level, with the 200-Day EMA sitting right there as well. The $77.50 level underneath has recently offered support and may continue to do so in the future.
- However, concerns about demand may weigh on the market as the global economy may start shrinking, leading to lower demand for oil.
Until the market breaks out of its current range, traders should assume that it will continue to move back and forth between the $72.50 and $82.50 levels for the WTI Crude Oil market and the $77.50 and $89 levels for the Brent market. It may be wise to avoid placing larger, longer-term trades until a clear trend emerges.
Overall, the oil markets remain range-bound with significant resistance and support levels. Traders should exercise caution and focus on shorter time frames until a clear trend emerges. The lack of movement in one direction or the other is a cause for concern and suggests that traders should avoid putting a lot of money into these markets for the time being.
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