#NASDAQ100 Monthly Forecast: November 2023 (2 Nov 2023)
NASDAQ 100 Forecast: November 2023
When I look at this chart, it is very interesting due to the fact that while we are in a descending channel, you can still make an argument that perhaps we are trying to build a bit of a bullish flag.
- The NASDAQ 100 has had a tough October, as it is currently testing the 50-Week you may indicator.
- The market is very likely to continue to be noisy, especially as the 3rd quarter results have been somewhat mixed.
- Further telling is the fact that some of the bigger stocks have responded somewhat poorly to even reasonable earnings announcements.
Obviously, we have a major source to headwinds out there in the form of interest rates, and of course geopolitical problems. As long as the war in Gaza is going to continue, it’s likely that the markets will be somewhat jittery. That being said, the market has behaved fairly well considering everything that’s going on, so at this point I think there will still be traders out there willing to try to pick the market up. Remember, the NASDAQ 100 is influenced by just a handful of stocks, more than anything else, and therefore it’s likely that we will continue to see the market move right along with Apple, Tesla, and the usual suspects.
Underneath, we have the 13,750 level offering support, and that will be an area that needs to be held. If we were to break down below there, it’s possible that the market could drop down to the 13,000 level. On the other hand, if we can turn around and recapture the 14,500 level, it’s possible that the NASDAQ 100 will do everything it can to reach the top of the channel that it has been trading in, which is essentially going to be found just below the 15,250 level. I anticipate that the month of November will probably be very noisy, but we are more likely than not to see an attempt at a rally, followed by selling pressure. That being said, if the market were to break above the 15,250 level, then the market is likely to continue to go higher, perhaps reaching the 16,500 level. That was an area where we had seen a lot of selling pressure previously and was the most recent swing high.
When I look at this chart, it is very interesting due to the fact that while we are in a descending channel, you can still make an argument that perhaps we are trying to build a bit of a bullish flag. That being said, we need to break out to the upside rather soon to kick that pattern off, so November is very likely to be noisy to say the least.
S&P 500 Forecast: November 2023
I do think that this is going to be a very difficult month, but the S&P 500 index is highly influenced by something like 5 stocks, which account for roughly 24% of the move.
- The S&P 500 had a very tough October, which is not a huge surprise considering that there is so much going on around the world.
- The war in Gaza of course will continue to have a major influence on what goes on, and therefore I think you got a situation where the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatile moves based on the latest headlines.
- The 4200 level is an area that seems to be of importance, and if we can recapture that, perhaps we can see some type of recovery overall.
On a rally from this point, you could see a move to the 50-Week EMA, maybe even the 4300 level. Signs of exhaustion get sold into from what I can see, unless of course we can break above that 4300 level on it weekly close. We have essentially hit the “measured move” of the head and shoulders pattern at the top, so now the question is whether or not we continue to go lower?
If we break down below the lows of October, it opens up the possibility of a move down to the 4000 level, and then perhaps even down to the 200-Week EMA which is lower than that. Ultimately, this is a market is trying to sort out whether or not we can continue to see a move to the upside, or if the earnings season, geopolitical concerns, and interest rates rising could come into the picture and continue the downward pressure.
I do think that this is going to be a very difficult month, but the S&P 500 index is highly influenced by something like 5 stocks, which account for roughly 24% of the move. In other words, it’s just a handful of stocks and several hundred other ones that are essentially going nowhere. Because of this, the index is not indicative of what’s going on in the stock market, as most of the stocks out there have essentially done very little, at least over the last year or so. I believe that we are at a very precarious point at the moment, and I do think that a short-term rally with signs of exhaustion bringing in more sellers does make a certain amount of sense. However, Wall Street will try to find some type of narrative to push the market higher and therefore you have to be cognizant of the latest “fad” out there. Expect a lot of noisy trading this month.
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