#EURUSD & #GBPUSD Live #Forex Signal (12 Dec 2023)

Posted by Clara Mellor on 00:43 with No comments

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Threatening Bullish Breakout Above $1.0773

Trading today is complicated by the fact that the US inflation data release near the start of the New York session could cause a lot of directional volatility, so traders should beware of that.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be entered before 5pm London time today.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0773, $1.0815, or $1.0848.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Idea

  • Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0726.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair last Thursday, I wrote that the technical picture had become more bearish, with both a relatively strong US Dollar and a weak Euro, which had been pushing the price down quite firmly over the past few days.

However, I also noted that the area around $1.0750 which the price had almost reached had typically been pivotal during recent months, so a bullish bounce here was very possible.

This is what we have seen, with the price seeming to bottom out and slowly turn in the $1.0750. The price is now rising bullishly to threaten the nearest resistance level at $1.0773.

I think if we get two consecutive higher hourly closes above $1.0773 following the London open, the price will be likely to continue rising to $1.0815. If the price closes above $1.0815 at the end of the New York session, that would be a very bullish sign and suggest an important bullish reversal has taken place.

Alternatively, if the price falls to close below $1.0773, that will be a bearish sign.

Trading today is complicated by the fact that the US inflation data release near the start of the New York session could cause a lot of directional volatility, so traders should beware of that.



Regarding the USD, there will be a release of CPI (inflation) data at 1:30pm London time. There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the EUR.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Forecast Ahead of US Inflation Data

The GBP/USD pair has drifted downwards in the past few weeks.

Bearish view

  • Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2468.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.2600.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

  • Set a buy-stop at 1.2565 and a take-profit at 1.2635.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.2470.

The GBP/USD exchange rate was flat on Tuesday morning ahead of important events from the US and the UK. The pair was trading at 1.2550, a few points above last week’s low of 1.2502.

UK and US economic data ahead

The broader financial market was on edge on Monday and Tuesday morning ahead of key market events. In the US, key indices like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 rose by about 0.50% while the dollar index jumped by 15 basis points.

The main reason for this price action is that this will be the most important week in the financial market this month. The US will publish the November consumer inflation data on Tuesday.

Economists believe that inflation continued falling in November, helped by durable goods and energy prices. Gasoline prices have slumped to the lowest level in over two years while natural gas is down by double-digits this year.

These numbers will come a few days after the US released strong jobs data. The economy added over 190k jobs in November as the unemployment rate dropped to 3.7%. Wage growth continued rising during the month.

These numbers, which form part of the Fed’s dual mandate, will help the bank in its meeting. Economists expect the Fed will leave rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50% and push back against rate cut bets.

The other important GBP/USD news will be the upcoming UK jobs numbers. Economists expect these numbers to reveal that the jobless rate remained unchanged at 4.2% while wage growth held quite well.

Like the Fed, economists are anticipating that the BoE will maintain rates at the current level in its December meeting. In a note, analysts at Goldman Sachs expect the bank will start cutting in August next year.

GBP/USD technical analysis

The GBP/USD pair has drifted downwards in the past few weeks. It has formed a descending channel and retreated below the 50-period moving average. The pair has also dropped below the Ichimoku cloud indicator and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been in a downtrend. Therefore, the outlook for the GBP/USD exchange rate is bearish as long as it remains below the upper side of the descending channel.

If the downtrend holds, the next support level to watch will be the 38.2% retracement point at 1.2468.



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