Monthly Gold & WTI Crude Oil Forecast: December 2023

Gold Forecast: December 2023

At this point, it has become increasingly obvious that gold is in a bullish run, and November has seen more of the same. However, as we enter the month of December, we are at a major resistance barrier that has caused quite a few problems in the past. Because of this, I think you need to pay very close attention to the $2050 level, because if we can close above there, then the gold market can truly take off.

That being said, the market has rallied quite drastically over the last couple of months and could very well need to take a bit of a breather. That would not be out of the realm of normalcy or possibility, so it’s worth noting that a pullback is somewhat likely. Whether or not that sticks remains to be seen, but we have seen this area be very stubborn in the past. However, I can also point out that on the weekly chart, the most recent pullback has been much less drastic than the 3 that preceded it. Because of this, we could be in a situation where we are simply waiting to find out whether or not momentum can enter the market.

Selling Gold is Difficult at This Point

• Recently, we have seen the bond markets have a major influence on where we are going, and I do think at this point higher interest rates will continue to be something that we need to pay close attention to.
• If interest rates in America start to rise again, that will be bad for the gold market.
• On the other hand, we also have geopolitical issues around the world that can continue to keep the gold market somewhat buoyed, with the idea being that people are out there looking to protect their wealth. Recession could also come into play here as well.

Regardless, I think it is going to be difficult to sell gold at this point, and I would anticipate that pullback should see a significant port near the crucial $2000 level. That pullback should be thought of as a potential buying opportunity, but caution is something that you need to keep in the back of your mind, due to the fact that as we head toward Christmas, liquidity will become rather thin, and cold markets could become somewhat erratic. While I favor the upside, I also recognize you need to find value.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: December 2023

• December could be a pretty wild month for the crude oil markets, as we are currently waiting to find out whether or not OPEC will cut production.
• It’s a pretty safe bet that they will, but there’s also the prevailing crosswinds of a potential recession.
• In a recessionary environment, crude oil tends to perform very poorly, as demand for energy drops. I think given enough time we’ve probably got a situation where the markets have gotten a bit ahead of themselves to the downside though, so the potential for a rally is still there.

On the weekly chart, we are sitting just below the 50-Week EMA and the 200-Week EMA, so pay close attention to those indicators, right along with the $80 level. If we can get a close above the $80 level on at least the daily chart, it could kick off a bit of buying in the oil market. After all, oil is very volatile under the best of circumstances, but when you look at the chart, you can see that we have seen a lot of negative pressure over the last couple of months. OPEC won’t allow this to happen for too long, as national budgets for many of those member countries need to see at least $70 a barrel.

Anticipating a Year-End Oil Bounce

Whether or not they can lift the market for a significant amount of time remains to be seen, but I am expecting oil to bounce into the end of the year. The $90 level above is a massive barrier that will be very difficult to overcome, so if we did overtake that level, I think that would capture a lot of attention. In general, oil does tend to be very range-bound over time, so we may be trying to find the bottom of the trading range currently, and that might be what part of the drop has been.

Alternatively, if we were to break down below the $70 level it would be a very negative turn of events, although I don’t necessarily expect to see that happen. If it does, that could foretell a lot of markets finding themselves in trouble, not just this one. It’s also worth noting that most of November has seen a lot of fighting by the bulls near the $77 level, so that’s something to keep an eye on as well.

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