Week Ahead April 1st Analysis for USA, Europe, and China Investors

It will be a very busy week in the United States with investors focusing on the labor market report, featuring non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate. Other important data include: JOLTS job openings, ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, factory orders, and foreign trade data. Globally, market participants will keep a close eye on the March inflation rates from Germany, the Euro Area, the Netherlands, Switzerland, South Korea, Turkey, Indonesia, and the Philippines. In addition, Manufacturing PMI readings from China, South Korea, Russia, Canada, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland, as well as Services PMI from China, Brazil, Spain, and Italy, will be under scrutiny. Trade data from Canada, Brazil, and Australia will offer insights into the global trade dynamics. Moreover, the unemployment rates in Canada and the Euro Area, along with India’s interest rate decision, are set to influence market sentiment and investment decisions.

In the United States, investors eagerly await the release of the highly anticipated US jobs report, alongside the ISM PMI surveys covering both the services and manufacturing sectors. Projections suggest non-farm payrolls increased by 198 thousand in March, marking a significant decline from the 275 thousand jobs added in February. Additionally, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9%, its highest level since January 2022, while monthly wage growth likely accelerated to 0.3%, up from the previous period's 0.1%. Meanwhile, the ISM reports for March are poised to reveal that the country's manufacturing sector continued to dwell in contraction territory for a 17th consecutive period, while the service sector's growth remains relatively stable compared to February's solid rate. Investors will also scrutinize comments from several Fed officials, including Fed Chair Powell's speech at the 2024 Business, Government & Society Forum at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. Other releases include the JOLTs job openings, ADP employment change, factory orders, foreign trade data, and the final readings of S&P Global PMI figures. Elsewhere in America, attention will also be on Canada's employment figures, trade balance, and PMIs from both Ivey and S&P Global, in addition to Mexico's consumer and business confidence indicators, and Brazil's industrial output and foreign trade statistics.

In Europe, key inflation reports will be released, including for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The headline HICP rate in the Euro Area is projected to remain steady at 2.6% in March. Conversely, consumer prices in Turkey are expected to rise significantly to 69.1%, the highest since November 2022. Retail sales in the Euro Area are anticipated to increase for the second consecutive month. Germany is forecasted to see a rebound in factory orders following the sharpest decline in six months, while France's industrial production is set to recover in February. Investors will also keep an eye on unemployment figures from the Euro Area, Italy and Spain; Switzerland's inflation rate, retail sales and manufacturing PMI; and Turkey's foreign trade. Additionally, final estimates of S&P Global PMIs will be published by the Eurozone, Germany, and France, with flash readings expected from countries like Spain and Italy. In Spain, the manufacturing sector is projected to grow for the second month and services for the tenth month, while in Italy, factory activity is likely to contract for the twelfth consecutive month but services are set to expand for the third month in a row. On the monetary policy front, minutes from the latest ECB monetary policy meeting in March could offer further clues on when the central bank will start cutting the interest rates. The United Kingdom will release final estimates of S&P Global PMIs, as well as monetary indicators from the Bank of England, Halifax house prices, and Nationwide housing prices.

In China, all eyes will be on March PMI figures, with official and Caixin gauges expected to show mixed signals. In Japan, the BoJ Tankan index for large manufacturers is expected to ease after three straight quarters of improvement. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India is expected to hold its policy rate at 6.5% as inflation has steadied below its upper tolerance band and the rupee fell under intense pressure in late March. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea will release PMI figures and its trade balance, in addition to joining the Philippines and Indonesia in posting new CPI prints. In Australia, economic releases will be headline by minutes from the RBA’s latest meeting and February’s trade balance.

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