#Gold & #Silver Forecast (3 April 2024)

Gold Forecast: Sees Noisy Chop

This is a market that I think continues to be very noisy and that does make a lot of sense considering what drives it after all we are talking about interest rates

• Gold initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday but has given back some of the gains as we continue to see the market stretched.
• Being as stretched as it is, it does make a certain amount of sense that we probably need to consolidate, and we may see a lot of that this week due to the fact that the jobs number comes out on Friday.
• This will continue to see a lot of volatility, but the volatility will more likely than dry up between now and then.

Ultimately, Gold is a market that I do think goes higher, but you have to look at it through the prism of a buy on the dip strategy. Given enough time, I don't see any reason why we don't make a fresh new high in this market, and for that matter, go looking towards the $2,500 level. I have no interest in shorting this market regardless, and therefore continue to look at it through the prism of trying to find value.

Multiple Support Levels

Underneath I see multiple support levels including the $2,200 level the $2,150 level and then finally the 50-day EMA and the $2,075 level which for me is the bottom of the overall trend. In general this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy and that does make a lot of sense considering what drives it after all we are talking about interest rates. The markets continue to pay close attention to inflation figures, via CPI, Core PCE, jobs, etc.

Geopolitical concerns and of course the fact that central banks are buyers. In general, this is a situation where we had surged higher previously, consolidated for the better part of a couple of weeks, and then turned around to break out to the upside again. I think we will probably continue that pattern going forward. Either way, I have no interest in trying to short this market.

Silver Forecast: Slams Into Resistance

Silver approaches key $26 resistance amid volatility, supported at $24.50. Market trend bullish but cautious due to shorting. Gold's rally may influence direction.

• Silver has shown itself to be positive yet again during the trading session on Tuesday as it looks like we are threatening the $26 level.
• The $26 level of course is an area that a lot of people have been paying attention to for some time, and it has shown itself to be significant resistance more than once.
• With this being the case, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that is ultimately bullish, but it is also a situation where we have seen a lot of volatility and therefore it is a market that you have to be very cautious with.

Technical Analysis

The market has risen significantly during the Tuesday session, but at this point in time I think it takes a certain amount of momentum to break above the $26 level. If we were to break above the $26 level, it opens up the possibility of a move to the $26.50 level, but I think at this point in time you would need to see a huge shift in fundamentals. That being said, the $24.50 level underneath continues to offer support as we had pulled back to that area and then bounced. We have the 50-Day EMA sitting underneath there as well, and it does suggest that there is a significant amount of support underneath that region as well.

Underneath, this is a market that value hunters will continue to buy the dips, but it’s also a situation where the upside is somewhat limited. After all, the $26 level has been like a brick wall, and there has been a significant amount of “paper silver” that has been shorted by not only retail traders, but commercial traders. With that being said, this is a market that I think is limited in its upside, but you can continue to look at this through the prism of finding value occasionally.

Because it is with the overall idea of paying attention to interest rates, central bank actions, and of course geopolitical concerns that you need to trade this market. It’s also worth noting that gold is absolutely on fire at this point, so it is possible that gold could drag this market with it, but it’s got a lot of work to do to take out the $26 level easily.

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