Monthly Forecast : #GOLD(#XAUUSD) & #WTI #CrudeOil (April 2024)

Gold Monthly Forecast: April 2024

High volatility with an upward trend towards $2500, driven by global rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold as a safe haven remains in focus.

• Gold markets are likely to be very noisy during the trading month of April, as we have a lot of different things going on.
• After all, this is not a market that operates in a vacuum, so it does make certain medicines that we will continue to see a lot of volatility and even more so in the sense that we have a lot of uncertainty.
• The market of course is one of the people will run to in times of uncertainty, but at the same time, a lot of people are out there wondering whether or not we have seen the highs?

To answer that question very quickly, I will say no, we have not. The market is likely to continue going higher in the month of April, and at this point in time I really don’t see anything keeping gold from reaching the $2500 level over the longer term. Will it happen in April? I’m not sure, but it’s definitely in the realm of possibility as we have seen so much in the way of upward momentum.

When I think about what’s going on in the world, central banks around the world cutting rates of course will have a major influence on gold markets as shrinking interest rates makes it more attractive to actually hold physical metal instead of electronic paper. Furthermore, there are massive amounts of geopolitical risks out there that you need to pay close attention to, and therefore gold could end up being a safe haven from war and political crises. Beyond that, it’s probably worth pointing out at this juncture that central banks around the world continue to buy gold, so there’s already a bit of an automatic bid underneath the market.

Technical Analysis

At this point, the gold market most certainly has shown itself to be bullish during the month of March, but most of the month was actually spent grinding away and trying to rally. It’s interesting that we continue to struggle with the $2200 region, but I do think that eventually it gives way, and buyers start to push gold much higher. The $2500 level is the next psychologically important figure.

The $2075 level underneath is the Florida market, assuming that we can even get to that point. The $2150 level underneath the recent consolidation is the first massive support level that I am watching in this market. Regardless, I think you continue to see a lot of “buy on the dips” attitude here.

WTI Crude Oil Monthly Forecast: April 2024

Slight rise in March with upward trend expected in April. Key support at $80, target at $85. Market influenced by seasonal demand and interest rate cuts.

• The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been slightly positive during the month of March, and it is very likely that we will continue to see upward pressure during the month of April.
• After all, there is a cyclical trade that you need to pay close attention to here, as demand for petroleum picks up as drivers and flyers start to travel much more.
• This is a well-known cycle that traders will play, so I think at this point in time it’s easy to say that April should, all things being equal, end up being a rather positive month.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that we take off straight up in the air on April 1, but it does suggest that perhaps we could see a continuation of the overall grind to the upside. This is a market that has been extraordinarily noisy until late, as we finally broke above the $80 level, and now it looks like the $80 level is trying to offer a little bit of short-term support. For what it is worth, I do believe that the $85 level is a bit of a target at this point, and as long as we can stay above the $80 level, we should continue to find plenty of people willing to step in and by this market.

Technical Analysis

The market continues to see a lot of volatility, but not only do I think that the $80 level is support, I also recognize that the 50-Week EMA is sitting just below there as well. All things being equal, this is a market that short-term pullbacks will continue to attract a certain amount of attention, and therefore I do think that you are looking to “buy the dip.” Crude oil also has plenty of external factors to make it go higher, not the least of which would be the central banks around the world looking to cut interest rates. If they do, that typically means that you will see more industrial demand as manufacturers start to ramp up engines. In general, this is a market that I think will be bullish for the next several months, and April will just be the beginning of what should be a good season for petroleum going forward. I have no interest whatsoever in shorting this market, and even if we were to break down below the 50-Week EMA, I would just look for an area where we bounce from later.

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