Weekly Forecast: #GBPUSD Speculative Perspective Important This Coming Week (13-17 May 2024)

Another week of rather volatile conditions persisted for GBP/USD speculators last week, this as the Bank of England and growth data from the U.K created impetus.

• The GBP/USD went into this weekend near the 1.25210 ratio.
• This result may look like a negative technical sentiment when a one week perspective is used, but the ability of the GBP/USD to climb back from lows around the 1.24460 ratio seen on Thursday may spur speculators with a buying interest.
• While the GBP/USD did finish the week lower than it started with regarding value, speculators likely are intrigued about the notion of additional upside potential.

But before speculators gamble blindly on upside, they should also remember the rather choppy Forex landscape which has proven difficult for GBP/USD day traders and all other wagering on major currencies versus the USD since the start of this year. Last Thursday’s Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary helped pushed the GBP/USD lower until financial institutions apparently thought it had been oversold.

Lower Depths and a Climb Upwards in the GBP/USD

Last Thursday’s lows challenged values seen on the 24th of April, downwards momentum has been strong in the GBP/USD. A one month chart of the GBP/USD still shows the currency pair struggling to maintain its balance above the 1.25000 mark. Yes, the 1.26000 target may be the preferred value for bullish GBP/USD to target, but the simple ability of staying above the 1.25000 level the past month has not been easy. However, early last week did see the GBP/USD remain above the 1.25000 mark until Wednesday.

It is likely financial institutions were positioning for inaction from the Bank of England which certainly was delivered on Thursday. The BoE spoke about the need to potentially have to lower its Official Bank Rate in the coming months. This is something the BoE likely doesn’t want to do before the Federal Reserve lowers their Federal Funds Rate. Inflation concerns for now have allowed the Bank of England to stay inactive. Financial institutions are suspicious about global central banks and this has led to widespread volatility across Forex. Yet, last Friday also saw a push higher in the GBP/USD and this occurred when GDP numbers from the U.K came in stronger than expected.

Rush Higher and Confusion Regarding Where to Go Next

While the growth numbers from the U.K came in with a gain that was not anticipated and helped the GBP/USD surge to a high of around 1.25400 momentarily, the currency pair was not able to hold onto high water marks which were still below values seen last Monday and Tuesday. The GBP/USD went into this weekend producing a slight selloff.

• The slight late selling in the GBP/USD last Friday occurred after an inflation report from the U.S, once again came in stronger than expected. And this is an important warning sign.
• The broad Forex market remains nervous regarding U.S data outlooks, and while they might be leaning towards a weaker USD outlook mid-term, short-term conditions remain volatile and day traders need to remain cautious because of incoming data this week.

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for GBP/USD is 1.24625 to 1.26150

The U.K will be rather light on economic data this week. However the U.S will present important Producer Price Index statistics on Tuesday and CPI numbers will be delivered on Wednesday. GBP/USD traders need to be prepared for more price velocity. Monday’s opening should be watched intently to judge existing behavioral sentiment when the London Forex session opens fully. If the GBP/USD can maintain its marks above the 1.25200 level this may be seen as a sign of optimism, but any falls below the 1.25200 and challenge of the 1.25175 mark will highlight nervousness remains ample.

Traders should watch technical charts carefully on Monday and Tuesday and make sure they are not overly leveraged as inflation data starts to come from the U.S on Tuesday. Weaker inflation data from the U.S would help GBP/USD bullish perspectives certainly, but betting on the outcome of the PPI and CPI readings beforehand will be gambling, particularly taking into consideration the surprising outcomes which have been coming from the U.S on a consistent basis the past few months. If the inflation numbers are weaker from the U.S this could spark a surge of GBP/USD buying.

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#GBPUSD Weekly Forecast: Fight Upwards After Long-Term Depth was Challenged (29 April-3 May 2024)

The GBP/USD begun last week by hitting a five month low, but then started to battle its ways upwards and went into this weekend having produced rather polite climb.

• The GBP/USD will begin trading this week near the 1.24880 ratio, which is an accomplishment considering the currency pair touched a low around 1.22970 on Monday the 22nd of April.
• The downwards selling in the GBP/USD continued early last Monday, but then a reversal upwards started to be seen.
• Even as the U.S continued to produce rather mixed economic data the entirety of last week, the GBP/USD produced a rather incremental move higher.

The lows last week had last been seen on the 14th of November, which may appear significant technically because that day produced a strong amount of upwards buying. The low which was tested early last week did produce buying too, and intriguingly Tuesday’s run higher did have some price velocity which was demonstrated. Technical traders may believe the 1.23000 ratio has essentially proven to be a level in which financial institutions believe the GBP /USD has been too oversold.

Difficult Days Ahead for Central Banks and the GBP/USD

This coming Wednesday the U.S Federal Reserve will make its FOMC Statement. No change to the Federal Funds Rate will happen this week. U.S economic data remains troubling because inflation continues to remain stubborn, but GDP growth numbers last week did show a significant drop which is intriguing. Equally interesting for GBP/USD traders is that fact the Bank of England will hold its monetary policy meetings next week.

While the BoE is not expected to make any change to its Official Bank Rate on the 9th of May, there are signs the U.K economy is continuing to struggle. Manufacturing numbers this past week were poor and the CBI Realized Sales produced a terrible reading last Thursday of minus -44. The GBP/USD reacted to the bad retail number from the U.K with a fall to the 1.24565 vicinity but recovered its footing. The notion that the Federal Reserve and Bank of England are both in difficult positions regarding policy is becoming a common theme. Yet both central banks appear ready to remain reactive and not become proactive, particularly as inflation remains within the economic landscape.

Jobs Numbers and Additional Factors as Speculators Consider Equilibrium

The trading above the 1.25000 level created last Thursday and Friday was noteworthy, but the GBP/USD remains volatile and day traders hoping to catch a trend should be careful. The past three months of trading in the currency pair have been problematic and the GBP/USD remains within the lower depths of its mid-term technical price range because outlook regarding central banks is troublesome.

• Adding more fireworks to the GBP/USD trading late this coming week will be U.S jobs numbers on Friday.
• If U.S hiring shows signs of slowing it could help spur on some USD centric weakness in Forex, meaning the GBP/USD could target higher ratios.

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for GBP/USD is 1.24390 to 1.25410

While the GBP/USD remains within sight of the 1.25000 mark, it is still nevertheless also near lower values. If the 1.24900 level remains durable as resistance this may mean some selling could develop in the GBP/USD in the near-term. However, because of the U.S Federal Reserve FOMC Statement this coming Wednesday trading in the GBP/USD is likely to remain rather choppy leading up to this event. The potential that financial institutions believe equilibrium has been found for the currency pair may lead to a rather broad test of the current price range between the 1.24500 and 1.25300 marks.

Forex trading has not been easy the past few months and speculators do not have many reasons to believe this coming week will suddenly make things easy. Caution should be practiced as the GBP/USD likely continues to test a rather choppy range. Support levels if tested may prove to be an interesting place to ignite quick hitting buying positions looking for momentary upwards movement. Support around the 1.24800 to 1.24700 levels may prove interesting in the near-term, but risk management will certainly have to be used to guard against stronger than anticipated moves.

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#GBPUSD 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart and Intraday Analysis (25 April 2024)

Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis on GBPUSD Shows 5 Waves Bullish Impulse

Elliott Wave view on GBPUSD suggests that rally from 10.4.2023 low takes the form of an impulsive structure. Up from 10.4.2023 low, wave (1) ended at 1.2828. Correction in wave (2) unfolded as an expanded flat Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (1), wave A ended at 1.2519 and wave B ended at 1.2894. Down from there, wave C subdivided into 5 waves. Wave ((i)) ended at 1.2538 and wave ((ii)) ended at 1.2709. The 60 minutes chart below shows the move lower in wave C from wave ((ii)) high.

Pair then extended lower in wave ((iii)) towards 1.2405 and rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 1.2485. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 1.23. This completed wave C of (2) of the expanded flat. The pair has turned higher in wave (3), and the rally shows a promising 5 waves impulse in short term. Up from wave (2), wave (i) ended at 1.236 and wave (ii) ended at 1.233. Wave (iii) higher ended at 1.2465 and wave (iv) pullback ended at 1.242. Expect wave (v) of ((i)) to complete soon. Pair should then pullback in wave ((ii)) to correct cycle from 4.22.2024 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 1.23 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.

GBPUSD 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

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#GBPCHF #Forexsignal: Stable Against Franc (19 April 2024)

Potential Signal:

The British Pound continues to look strong against the Swiss franc, and as we are close to a major support barrier in the form of the 1.13 level, I am a buyer at this level. I would have a stop loss underneath the 50-Day EMA. My short-term target is 1.1475 above.

• Over the last several sessions, I have been paying close attention to the GBP/CHF pair, as it has such a significant amount of swap that you can get paid, and of course there is a major divergence between the two major central banks.
• Ultimately, the Swiss National Bank recently cutting rates has a major influence on this market, as the SNB is the first major central bank in the world to cut rates.
• This will continue to keep the Swiss franc on its back foot and is likely that will continue to drive the value of the Swiss franc lower over the longer term.

Technical Analysis

The pair does look very bullish, and the 1.13 level underneath is going to continue to be important. It’s an area that we’ve seen a little bit of action at previously, but we also have the 50-Day EMA approaching that region a little bit of a bounce from there does make quite a bit of sense, due to the fact that you get paid at the end of every day to hold this currency pair. Furthermore, it’s possible that the Swiss National Bank may continue to cut rates, and if that’s going to be the case, the Swiss franc becomes a massive funding currency for currency traders.

On the upside, we have the 1.15 level above offering a significant amount of resistance, and I think we simply bounce back and forth in this area as we continue to build up the necessary momentum eventually to perhaps break out. If we can break above the 1.15 level, then it is likely that we could go higher, perhaps reaching as high as 1.20 over the longer term.

On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 50-Day EMA, then it’s possible that the market could go down to the 200-Day EMA, which sits right around the 1.1150 level. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility, but I still favor the upside as the swap at the end of the day continues to be a major feature of this pair.

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✅LIVE #FOREX SIGNAL :#GBPUSD✅11 April 2024

GBPUSD BUY @ 1.2563

TP1 : 1.2589

TP2 : 1.2619

TP3 : 1.2769

SL : 1.2469

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#USDCAD,#EURUSD,#GBPUSD #Forexsignal (10 April 2024)

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Forms Double Bottom Ahead of US CPI Data

Bullish view

• Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0975.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0725.
• Timeline: 1-3 days.

Bearish view

• Set a sell-stop at 1.0845 and a take-profit at 1.0725.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0925.

US inflation data and FOMC minutes ahead

The EUR/USD pair has rebounded in the past few days even as some analysts hint at a drop to the parity level. Analysts at Bank of America and LBBW believe that the pair has more downside in the coming months.

The main reason for this is that analysts expect that the European Central Bank (ECB) will start cutting interest rates earlier than the Fed. That’s because Europe’s inflation is nearing the bank’s target of 2.0%. The bank will provide hints on when it will start cutting rates in its meeting this week.

There will be no economic data and news from Europe on Wednesday. Instead, focus will be on the upcoming US inflation data.

Economists polled by Bloomberg expect the report to show that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in March, translating to a YoY increase of 3.4%. Core inflation is expected to come in at 0.3% MoM and 3.7% on a YoY basis.

If these numbers are correct, it means that inflation has remained stubbornly high. It will also be a sign that the recent disinflation trend has ended. As a result, it will signal that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates for longer.

In a statement on Monday, Jamie Dimon, the head of JP Morgan warned that interest rates could remain higher for longer. He expects that rates could even push to 8% since the economy is doing well.

The next important EUR/USD news will be the upcoming Fed minutes. These minutes will provide more information about what the Fed officials deliberated in the last meeting.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The EUR/USD exchange rate has remained in a consolidation phase in the past few days. It was trading at 1.0855, higher than this month’s low of 1.0725. On the daily chart, the pair is consolidating at the 50-day and 25-day Weighted Moving Averages (EMA).

The pair has moved to the strong, pivot and reverse point of the Murrey Math Lines while the histogram of the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) has moved above the neutral point. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the neutral point.

Most importantly, it has formed a double-bottom pattern. Therefore, the outlook is bullish, with the next point to watch being at 1.0975, its highest swing on March 8th. A break below the support at 1.0725 will point to more downside.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Rally Fades Ahead of US Inflation Report

Bearish view

• Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2600.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2750.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

• Set a buy-stop at 1.2700 and a take-profit at 1.2765.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2600.

The GBP/USD exchange rate was flat on Wednesday morning as traders waited for the March inflation report. The pair was trading at 1.2680, a few points above this month’s low of 1.2545.

US inflation data ahead

The GBP/USD pair reacted mildly to the statement by Raphael Bostic, the head of the Atlanta Fed. He said that the bank will likely cut rates one time this year because of the strength of the economy and high inflation. He also insisted that he would be open to changing his mind if inflation retreat.

Federal Reserve officials have been divided on when the rate cuts will start. The recent dot plot showed that ten officials expect three or more rate cuts this year. Nine members anticipate two or fewer cuts.

Signs that the Fed will not deliver more cuts continued on Friday when the US published strong jobs numbers. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% in March as the economy added over 300k jobs.

Looking ahead, the US will deliver the latest consumer inflation numbers. These are notable figures since they form an important part of the bank’s dual mandate. Economists expect the data to show that the headline inflation rose to 3.4% in March while core CPI moved to 3.7%. These numbers will be higher than the Fed’s target of 2.0%.

The GBP/USD pair will also react to a statement by Austan Goolsbee, the head of Chicago Fed. In a recent statement, he hinted that he was in support of three rate cuts.

The other news will be the minutes of the last Fed meeting. These minutes will provide more information about what the Fed officials said in the second meeting of the year. In that meeting, the members left interest rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%.

GBP/USD technical analysis

The GBP/USD exchange rate has been in a strong uptrend in the past few days. This rebound started after the pair dropped to a low of 1.2535 on Monday last week. It has moved above the crucial resistance point at 1.2667, its highest swing on March 26th.

The pair has jumped above the 50-period Weighted Moving Average and the Ichimoku cloud. Also, the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have all pointed upwards.

The pair’s price action will be influenced by the US inflation data. A strong report will lead to a reversal, which will see it drop to a low of 1.2600. On the other hand, weak inflation figures will lead to more upside.

USD/CAD Forex Signal: To Buy or Sell?

Today's potential signal:

I am a buyer of this pair ONLY. I am interested in a small position near the 50-Day EMA. I would have a stop at 1.3475 below. I would be aiming for a bounce back to the 1.36 level.

• The US dollar initially tried to rally a bit during the early hours on Tuesday only to collapse a bit against the Canadian dollar.
• That being said, we are very much still in a consolidation phase, so I'm not overly pressed about this.
• I think we continue to see more buy on the dip behavior, but it is a bit of a grind.

This does make a certain amount of sense considering that the two economies are so heavily intertwined. Anybody who's ever been to either the peace bridge or the ambassador bridge between the two countries can see just how much trade there really is. It's actually kind of an impressive sight. With that being the case, you don't get massive swings very often, unless of course somebody is caught offside. As things stand right now, crude oil is rallying a bit.

Oil? Not Necessarily.

But I don't think that is going to be a major driver of this USD/CAD pair anytime soon. Keep in mind that the Americans produce a lot of crude oil now, so although it can't help the Canadian dollar, it doesn't necessarily translate the same way against the greenback. The 50-day EMA underneath continues to be a technical support level right along with the 200-day EMA, so I do think it's probably only a matter of time before buyers would show up in that general vicinity.

It would continue the overall up trending channel that we've been in for a while. The 1.3625 level is still an area that I'm paying close attention to because if we can close up there on a daily chart, I think then you have a real shot at going to the 1.38 level. The CPI numbers coming out on Wednesday could have a lot to say as to what happens in this pair next, but keep in mind, it just tends to grind more than anything else, so you're not looking for massive moves most of the time.

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#GBPJPY Trades Lower Ahead of Key Market Events (4 April 2024)

• GBPJPY is in the red again today, not far from its recent high
• It has dropped below the January 2, 2024 ascending trendline
• Momentum indicators are in waiting mode for the next key market events

GBPJPY is trading lower again today as the market is preparing for today’s US labour market report, which could play a key role in the Fed’s outlook. The move from the January 2, 2024 low has been aggressive despite the recent BoJ rate hike but the threat of intervention appears to have already borne fruit. However, the Japanese officials’ resolve could be really tested if another strong rally takes place soon.

In the meantime, the momentum indicators are clearly directionless and trendless. More specifically, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) remains stuck below its 25-threshold, signaling a range-trading market. Similarly, the RSI continues to hover around 50, confirming the current indecisiveness of market participants. More importantly, the stochastic oscillator is trading around its midpoint, pointing to a delicate balance in GBPJPY.

Should the bulls remain confident, they could try to lead GBPJPY back above the January 2, 2024 ascending trendline and test the resistance set by the July 21, 2005 low at 192.57. They could then have the chance to record a new 2024 high, above the current 193.52 high, with the next plausible target being in the 195.00 area.

On the other hand, the bears are desperate to regain market control and gradually push GBPJPY towards the 189.61-189.81 area, which is populated by the March 31, 2004 low and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). If successful, they could then have a go at testing the support set by the busy 186.65-186.76 range that is defined by the August 22, 2023 high and the 100-day SMA.

To sum up, market participants are mostly on the sidelines ahead of the certain key market events with the GBPJPY bulls also trying to avoid further provoking the Japanese authorities.

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#GBPUSD Dips as Retail Sales Slide (19 Jan 2024)

• UK retail sales slide 3.2% in December
• GBP/USD edges lower

The British pound has weakened slightly on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2682, down 0.18%.

UK retail sales take a tumble

The markets were expecting a letdown from December retail sales after a strong November reading, but nobody was expecting a multi-year drop. Yet that’s what happened, as retail sales plunged 3.2% m/m, the lowest level since January 2021. Considering the sharp drop, the British pound’s reaction has been muted.

In November, retail sales jumped a revised 1.4%, as shoppers flocked to department stores to take advantage of Black Friday sales and other discounts. This meant that much of the Christmas shopping took place in November. The massive drop of 3.2% crushed the consensus estimate of -0.5%.

There is more to this story than Black Friday sales. The weak December reading reflected a UK consumer who is pessimistic about the economy and is being relentlessly squeezed by high inflation and elevated borrowing costs. December retail sales were brutal but the struggles faced by consumers are nothing new – retail sales fell by 2.8% in 2023, the lowest level since 2018.

The sharp drop in retail sales will have a negative impact on December GDP, which could mean that GDP for the fourth quarter is negative. If that is the case, the UK will technically be in a recession, with two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Even if the UK manages to avoid a recession, growth will be flat.

The Bank of England has kept rates unchanged for three straight times and meets on February 1. The sharp drop in retail sales supports the BoE considering a rate cut, but December inflation rose unexpectedly from 3.9% to 4.0%, and the BoE will be hesitant to chop rates before inflation is closer to the 2% target.

GBP/USD Technical

• GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2689. Next, there is support at 1.2625
• There is resistance at 1.2738 and 1.2802

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