Monthly Forecast : #EURUSD & #USDMXN (May 2024)

EUR/USD Monthly Forecast: May 2024

• The EUR/USD is trading near the 1.07015 mark as of this writing, which is a bullish accomplishment considering the currency pair touched a low of nearly 1.06000 on the 16th of April.
• The shift in sentiment regarding a more cautious Federal Reserve has essentially been cemented over the past few weeks as inflation data from the U.S has remained sticky, and changed the rhetoric of FOMC members who have been speaking in public.
• The potential of a U.S Federal Funds Rate cut in the mid-term has now almost vanished and become a hoped for interest rate cut late this summer or sometime in the fall, this if the U.S economy behaves.

As the month of May gets ready to start it will be met with a bang as the U.S Federal Reserve steps to the podium this Wednesday and delivers its FOMC Statement. Last week’s stubborn U.S inflation outcomes have brushed away any optimism that may have existed for a rate cut in June. However, intriguingly the EUR/USD has actually climbed upwards since Tuesday the 23rd of April when the currency pair was around the 1.06375 level.

Lack of Confidence in the European Central Bank to Become Proactive

The EUR/USD is now fighting near the 1.07000 mark which is important psychologically for technical traders and this may last for a bit longer. The U.S will also issue jobs numbers this Friday which will factor into the EUR/USD over the remainder of this week. Germany today published slightly weaker than anticipated Consumer Price Index numbers, but the European Central Bank is likely going to take its cue from the U.S Federal Reserve during the month of May and remain cautious.

The ability of the EUR/USD to dive lower with a rapid pace caught some speculators off guard. The largest fall occurred on the 10th of April when Consumer Price Index numbers in the U.S came in stronger than expected. These higher inflation results helped take the EUR/USD which was around the 1.08670 ratio before the CPI report was published, to the 1.07300 as the day progressed. The ECB held their monetary policy pronouncements the very next day and a low on that Thursday the 11th of April came in around the 1.07000 level, which intriguingly enough is the vicinity the EUR/USD is trading now.

Equilibrium and Nervousness in the EUR/USD

The EUR/USD has shown the ability to trade lower and looking at its one month technical chart the currency pair remains within the lower elements of its price range. The lowest depth for the EUR/USD in the month of April challenged values not seen since the 2nd of November. The 1.06850 to 1.07250 range may feature within the near-term as financial institutions await the FOMC Statement.

• But here’s the thing, the Fed rhetoric this week is unlikely to deliver more clarity.
• Certainly they will try to stay cautiously optimistic, but will it be enough to create equilibrium for the EUR/USD above the 1.07000 mark and launch an upwards attack on the 1.08000 level?

EUR/USD Outlook for May 2024:

Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.06775 to 1.07650

Speculators have seen choppy trading in the EUR/USD for the past four months and this is likely to continue during May. The value of the EUR/USD in April created a wide price range. Now that most financial institutions likely believe the Fed will remain cautious, this might create a bit of a tighter value band moving forward. However, speculators will still need to be careful. Traders who believe the EUR/USD is oversold need to make sure they aren’t simply biased against the USD.

While it may seem logical to believe the EUR/USD will gain over the mid-term and reestablish stronger values, traders looking for upside should remain realistic regarding their goals. If the EUR/USD is able to sustain value above the 1.07000 level this would be a positive sign, but bullish speculators may not jump into long positions until the 1.07500 mark proves it is durable as support. Traders looking for values below should also practice caution and moves below the 1.06775 ratio may be too far.

USD/MXN Monthly Forecast: May 2024

• The US dollar has been bullish against the Mexican peso during the bulk of the month of April.
• That being said, I don’t necessarily think this means anything other than we have found an area where people are willing to take profit.

When you look at the longer-term charts, the 16 pesos level is an area that is a major support level. Because of this, it should not be a huge surprise that we have seen the market bounce the way it has. Furthermore, we have a lot of questions to ask around the world right now as far as risk appetite is concerned.

We tested the 50-We EMA a couple of times during the month of April, but ultimately, we continue to see a lot of overhang as far as pressure is concerned. Because of this, I would assume that the downward pressure continues, mainly due to the fact that there is a massive interest rate differential, as Mexico has a massive amount of interest attached to its currency, in the form of 11.75%. While the US dollar does enjoy historically high interest rates as far as the last 15 years is concerned, the reality is that the Mexican peso is an entirely different world as far as interest is concerned.

Traders will continue to get paid to be short of this market, but I also believe at this point in time you also need to pay close attention to risk appetite. After all, the Mexican economy is not one that people want to throw a ton of money into in times of huge concerns. With that being said, if we were to break above the 18.50 MXN level, then I think this is a market that could truly take off to the upside. On the other hand, if we break down below the 16 MXN pesos level, then we could really start to see the US dollar unwind. In general, the market is likely to see the US dollar shrink against almost everything else, not just the Mexican peso. On the other hand, if we see a major “risk off move” in the market, emerging market currencies like the Mexican peso will get decimated. At the end of the day, I would not be surprised at all to see this market bounce around between 16 pesos and 18 pesos for the month.

GFHGFH

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Monthly Forecast : #EURUSD & #USDMXN (April 2024)

EUR/USD Monthly Forecast: April 2024

The EUR/USD will begin April’s trading near mid-term lows as financial institutions continue to show nervous behavioral sentiment regarding the outlook of U.S Federal Reserve policy.

• The EUR/USD went into this weekend near the 1.07895 level which will not make bullish traders happy, unless of course they believe current price levels are near durable support.
• However, traders who have had bullish perspectives and have looked for higher momentum to ignite in the currency pair solely based on technical support levels in March are likely feeling a bit unsatisfied as prices have continued to test lower realms.
• The ability of the EUR/USD to continue trading lower mirrors the broad Forex market, but the downward trend of the Euro is noteworthy.

There is a growing concern in some financial institutions the European Central Bank may be forced to cut interest rates before the Federal Reserve. U.S data continues to come in stronger than anticipated. GDP numbers and inflation statistics last week in the U.S continued to show a rather stubbornly strong economy; even Consumer Sentiment numbers were higher than anticipated. While the Fed has seemingly promised a few interest rate cuts in 2024, economic data is not helping its case and doubts are being seen throughout global Forex as the USD has gotten stronger.

Holiday Trading and an Early Test of Sentiment

While the EUR/USD went into the weekend touching values seen in late February, the currency pair is also once again bouncing up against mid-December values before the U.S Federal Reserve made its ‘official’ rhetoric softer. Choppy conditions have been stark in the EUR/USD since the middle of December and in March a high of nearly 1.09835 was seen on the 5th briefly. Yet, the overwhelming response to moves higher in the EUR/USD over the past few months and weeks have been reversals lower.

More volatility will develop later this week in the EUR/USD. Trading volumes to start April will be light as financial institutions return from the Easter holiday, but this coming Friday crucial jobs data will come from the U.S and speculators will react. The Fed has been put into a position that seems to be wishing on weaker jobs numbers in order to talk about interest rate cuts. Jerome Powell said recently that even if inflation remains sticky in the mid-term that weaker hiring could spur the U.S central bank into a rate cut. However, economic data from Europe has been weaker than U.S statistics and this has created the notion the ECB could be forced into a position in which they are more dovish than the Federal Reserve.

The 1.08000 Ratio as a Barometer for the EUR/USD

• Trading going into the holiday weekend was light and its results may lead to volatile reactions early this week.
• Intriguingly Gold remains near record values even as the USD is at stronger levels, which is suspicious and suggests Forex has additional volatile days ahead.

Traders who are convinced the EUR/USD has been oversold should be careful. The 1.08000 ratio is likely important for behavioral sentiment. Unless the 1.0800 level is penetrated upwards and sustained, traders may believe selling power continues to remain dominant in the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Outlook for April 2024:

Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.07425 to 1.09150

The choppy trading conditions which have plagued Forex are likely to continue until clarity regarding central bank outlooks start to become better. Jobs numbers this Friday from the U.S will take on added significance and have an effect on the EUR/USD which is likely to create a rather wide price range being demonstrated. Quick hitting trades should be done with proper risk management, and for traders holding positions before the jobs data the use of stop loss and take profit orders will help.

April may prove to be difficult for traders if U.S data continue to come in mixed. But if jobs numbers this coming Friday proves weaker than anticipated this could lead to some bullish ignition in the EUR/USD based on the notion the Fed will have ammunition to pursue a rate cut in June. But if the EUR/USD were to fall below the 1.07600 level this would be a bearish signal and likely be acknowledging U.S data continues to be stronger than anticipated and the ECB may have to actually be the first to cut interest rates.

USD/MXN Monthly Forecast: April 2024

Continued US dollar decline vs. Mexican peso. Crucial levels at 16 and 17.50 pesos. Interest rate differentials and US-Mexico economic ties key factors.

• The US dollar has continued to drop against the Mexican peso during the month of March, which is truly interesting considering we have just made a “lower low”, on the weekly chart.
• That being said I still see a lot of noise between here and 16 pesos that we need to watch out for, so the month of April could be one that is going to be crucial as to where this pair goes for the longer-term.

The US dollar has been struggling for some time against the Mexican peso, mainly due to the interest rate differential. After all, in this world we like to get a lot of interest whenever we can, and the fact that the central bank in Mexico offers 11.25%, makes the Mexican peso a currency that a lot of people will be interested in. However, that doesn’t mean that we get a straight shot down.

Pay attention to America

Ironically, if the economy in the United States starts to crumble, that can actually work against the value of the Mexican peso, despite the fact that the interest rate differential will be massive. After all, most of Mexico’s economy involves the United States one way or another, as Mexico is now the largest exporter to the US. Furthermore, it’s probably worth noting that the pair also has to deal with remittances, which is just another way to talk about Mexicans sending money home that are presently working in the United States.

At this point, rallies are probably selling opportunities with the 50-Week EMA near the 17.50 pesos level, but if we were to break down below the 16.00 pesos level, I think we could see a huge flush in the US dollar, perhaps sending it much lower. If that’s the case, it means that there will probably be a major “risk on” attitude around the world, and it does make a certain amount of sense that we could see that happen with the Federal Reserve looking to cut rates this year. However, you should also be aware of the fact that the Mexican peso is considered to be an emerging market currency, meaning that traders won’t want to hold it if we are in a sudden “risk off” type of attitude.

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#EURUSD Monthly Forecast: March 2024

Traders of the EUR/USD have seen a rather wild month of results in the currency pair and their perceptions as March approaches are likely anxious.

• A simple look at the results of trading for the EUR/USD in February via a one month technical chart should be enough to highlight the volatility which has occurred for all speculators.
• The question for those who want to pursue the currency pair in March is if the rather choppy conditions demonstrated the past handful of weeks is going to begin subsiding.

Behavioral sentiment in the broad Forex markets has shifted consistently in the past handful of weeks which has led to rather violent price fluctuations as financial institutions have changed their outlooks nervously. The high of 1.08980 which was momentarily hit on the 2nd of February was quickly turned into an assault on lows which hit the 1.07230 on the 5th. Since the beginning of February choppiness has prevailed and the current price of the EUR/USD near 1.08160 almost feels like a positive accomplishment.

Sustained Value over the 1.08000 Level has been Difficult

Viewpoints regarding what the U.S Federal Reserve will do in the spring have now changed to questions about what the Fed do in the early summer. Shifting tides regarding outlook has caused turbulent conditions for speculators. Some traders still may feel the EUR/USD remains in oversold territory and the prospect of a stronger currency pair may be enticing. However, timeframe considerations must be dealt with when weighing perspectives on what the current value of the EUR/USD is now and its daily gyrations, compared to mid and long term outlooks. The 1.08000 level has been important during February.

While value has been sustained over the 1.08000 level since the 21st of February, there are enough worries about U.S economic data and European numbers to cause financial institutions to remain nervous. Traders may remain convinced that reversals higher should take place when support near the 1.08000 to 1.08100 levels are seen, but the ability of the EUR/USD to move below these levels has caused plenty of problematic results for those with stubborn bullish positions who are over-leveraged.

A Return for the EUR/USD to 1.09000 and Wishful Thinking

• German economic data has been lackluster and hasn’t shown much sign of improvements regarding growth, but inflation remains troubling in the European Union which puts the ECB in a difficult position.
• Technical traders who lean towards bullish momentum in the EUR/USD will want to see durable support start to emerge which offers the hope of a stronger bullish climb.

The belief the EUR/USD should be trading near the 1.09000 level may lead some speculators to continue to bet on upside movement in the currency pair. However, speculators should examine their bias regarding their perceptions regarding higher values in the EUR/USD. Until the U.S Federal Reserve is given inflation data which shows erosion in prices, the EUR/USD could remain in choppy waters and continue to produce volatility like it has over the past month, in fact over the past two months. EUR/USD traders should not get overly ambitious regarding their outlooks for an upwards trend until economic data solidifies their notions.

EUR/USD Outlook for March 2024:

Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.07625 to 1.09010

While nervous sentiment continues to linger in the broad Forex market, but the prevailing viewpoint remains the Federal Reserve will eventually become more dovish, perhaps the best speculative tool for traders to consider using are potential support levels which could ignite some upwards price action. Traders in the EUR/USD during February suffered through uncomfortable value swings if they were not using proper risk management.

If the EUR/USD were to break below the 1.08000 level again and begin to test the 1.07900 to 1.07800 levels, traders may feel emboldened to look for reversals higher. However, before looking for moves higher if support is being tested, traders should ask why the lower moves have taken place. Economic data has rattled financial institutions and their publications may remain a hurdle in March. The upside looks tempting in the EUR/USD, but solid impetus is still needed for a sustained trend to emerge.

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#EURUSD #Signal: Neutral Outlook With a Bullish Bias (28 Feb 2024)

Neutral with bullish tilt. Buy at 1.0855, target 1.0890, stop-loss 1.0800. Sell at 1.0835, target 1.0780, stop-loss 1.0925. Awaiting US, EU data.

Bullish view

• Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0890.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0800.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Set a sell-stop at 1.0835 and a take-profit at 1.0780.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0925.

The EUR/USD pair wavered after the relatively weak economic numbers from the United States. It remained at 1.0855, where it has been since Friday as focus now shifts to the upcoming US GDP and European confidence numbers.

Weak US economic data

The EUR/USD pair reacted mildly to a set of weak economic numbers on Tuesday. These numbers revealed that consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and housing numbers were worse than expected.

According to Conference Board, the country’s consumer confidence dropped from 110.9 in January to 106.7 in February. This figure was worse than the median estimate of 114.8 and was the lowest figure in months.

Another report showed that durable goods orders dropped by 0.3% MoM in January, worse than the expected increase of 0.2%. It declined by 6.1% on a YoY basis, also missing the consensus estimate of 4.9%.

The housing market is also starting to soften as the house price index rose by 0.1% in December, dropping from the previous month’s 0.4%.

These numbers, together with the weak retail sales and industrial production figures, will likely put more pressure on the Fed. The bank is at a crossroad with inflation remaining stubbornly above its 2% target as the economic slowdown continues.

Looking ahead, the next key EUR/USD news to watch will be the upcoming US GDP numbers. Based on the first estimate, economists expect the data to show that the economy expanded by 3.3% in Q4 after growing by 4.9% in the previous month.

The other important report will come from Europe, where Eurostat will publish the bloc’s consumer and business confidence numbers. Economists believe that the two figures remained in the negative zone as Europe goes through an economic weakness. Germany, the biggest economy in the bloc is already in a recession.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair has held steady this week even after the weak US consumer confidence report. It remains below the important resistance point at 1.0885, the highest swing on February 22nd. Additionally, there are signs that it has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern while the 50-period and 100-period moving averages have made a bullish crossover.

The MACD indicator has remained above the zero line. Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range on Wednesday. While the US GDP and European confidence numbers are important, their impact on the pair will be limited. The key support and resistance levels to watch will be at 1.0800 and 1.0900.

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#EURUSD Monthly Forecast: January 2024

December provided EUR/USD traders with a rather difficult track if they were not prepared with solid risk management. The first two weeks of the month delivered a test of emotional fortitude for EUR/USD speculators, particularly if they had bullish sentiment. Trading started in a hectic manner as a late November selloff produced a low of nearly 1.08300 on the 1st of December, only to see a brief run higher going into the weekend. And early December trading then stayed choppy, as additional lows were produced which certainly tested the fortitude of day traders.

December lows were seen on the 8th when the 1.07250 vicinity was briefly touched. By the 13th of December, the EUR/USD was still fighting below the 1.0800 level, but this occurred shortly before the U.S Federal Reserve stepped into the limelight and essentially provided financial institutions with a change of rhetoric. The Fed’s aggressive hawkish stance was brushed away, as the U.S. central bank confirmed they had reached the end of interest rate hikes, and opened the door wide for the potential of rate cuts starting in the spring of 2024.

The EUR/USD Ignited Higher as Sentiment Shifted

On the 14th of December, the EUR/USD was trading near a high of 1.10100 momentarily. Choppy trading developed after this quick rise higher. Price velocity was fast as the EUR/USD had climbed, and the week of trading that followed until the 21st was full of reversals. And then fundamental impetus struck Forex again when U.S inflation data came in weaker than expected, which set off more buying of the EUR/USD and a test of the 1.10400 ratio on the 22nd of December.

Intriguingly as January gets ready to start the EUR/USD is close to the same marks it finished with on the 21st of December. Last week’s holiday trading produced a high of nearly 1.11415 this past Thursday, but this was met by headwinds as the New Year’s holiday weekend began to shadow. Trading will likely remain light early this week and full volumes may not return to Forex until the second week of January. However, the ability of the EUR/USD to climb to mid-term highs and sustain value over the 1.10000 mark is noteworthy. Early August and late July 2023 values are in sight for speculators of the EUR/USD.

Higher Values and Bullish Wagering in January

• As January gets started traders should watch support levels. If the 1.10200 to 1.10100 levels sustain values, this may be an indication more buying will start to filter into the EUR/USD.
• The mid-term outlook for the USD has become weaker, and many financial institutions likely believe the EUR/USD may be undervalued if it is trading below the 1.10000 level.
• Having challenged highs near the 1.11400 level may be a looking glass into EUR/USD speculative outlooks. However, traders should not get overly ambitious, particularly if they are day traders and need to be more conservative.

EUR/USD Outlook for January 2024:

Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.09510 to 1.11925

Risk appetite appears optimistic as January gets ready to begin. U.S. Treasury yields have continued to decrease. The outlook for the USD is certainly weaker because of U.S inflation data which has produced lower-than-expected numbers recently, potentially helping the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within a handful of months. If the EUR/USD climbs above the 1.10500 mark and begins to show the ability to sustain this value, buyers may begin to rapidly seek additional bullish positions.

Price velocity should be watched intently by day traders. Holiday volumes will remain questionable this week, but as financial institutions become fully involved the trading by Monday the 8th of January should be dynamic. If choppiness occurs in the next couple of weeks with downside pressure, traders may remain bullish nevertheless. To handle potential reversals lower speculators should be using stop loss orders to protect their accounts and wait out the ‘lows’.

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Pairs in Focus This Week –#EURUSD,#NASDAQ 100,#Bitcoin,#Cocoa Futures (19-25 Nov 2023)

EUR/USD

The euro took off to the upside during the course of the week to test the previous uptrend line as resistance. The 1.09 level above could be a major barrier that if we were to overcome, the market could go looking to the 1.10 level. After that, the market then could continue to take off to the outside. Underneath, the market has a lot of support near the 200-Week EMA, closer to the 1.0720 level.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ 100 has had yet another bullish week, as it looks like we are trying to break out at this point. The 16,000 level above looms large, and if we can clear that it's likely that we go much higher. It's also worth noting that we have recently broken out of the major bullish flag, so think at this point in time there will be plenty of buyers every time it pulls back. I have no interest in shorting the NASDAQ 100, because quite frankly Wall Street is obviously throwing liquidity into the market.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin markets have been somewhat sideways during the course of the week as the $40,000 level above looms large as resistance. The market has got a little ahead of itself so would not surprise me at all to see a little bit of a pullback, but that more likely than not will continue to attract inflows, as a lot of people will have missed this move. You can even make a bit of an argument for an ascending channel, so I think at this point in time the market certainly looks as if it wants to go higher, especially as people are trying to front run the idea of the Federal Reserve loosening monetary policy, although it’s not necessarily something is going to be doing anytime soon.

Cocoa Futures

Cocoa futures have been in a strong bullish trend for over a year now and made another strong rise last week. The price chart below applies a linear regression analysis to the past 60 weeks and shows graphically what a great opportunity this has been on the long side.

The weekly candlestick was again firmly bullish, closing right on its high at a multi-year high price.

It is always a bit aggressive to enter without a pullback, especially right now with the price action above the upper band of the linear regression channel, but this is a strong trend that shows no sign of stopping on ever-increasing global demand for the superfood cocoa.

Trading commodities long on breakouts to new 6-month highs has been a very profitable strategy over recent years.

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#USDMXN AND #EURUSD Monthly Forecast: November 2023 (2 Nov 2023)

 USD/MXN Forecast: November 2023

While the pair is most certainly in a downtrend, it is worth noting that we recently have seen a surge higher, with October mainly being more or less a consolidation timeframe.

• The US dollar has been consolidating against the Mexican peso during a majority of the month of October, as we continue to bang against a very serious significant resistance barrier.
• This is found at the 18.50 MXN level, and if we can break above there it could really start to send this market higher.
• The 200-Week EMA is near the 19.15 MXN level, and that could be the next target if we can get at least a daily close above that level.

Needless to say, there are a lot of questions right now because the interest rate differential does favor Mexico. The US dollar is very strong, mainly due to higher interest rates but also the potential safety trade. If we continue to get a lot of “risk off behavior”, then it would make a certain amount of sense that this market continues to rally. Breaking above the 200-Week EMA would be a major turnaround, perhaps opening up a move to the 20 pesos level, maybe even 21 pesos after that. While I don’t know whether or not we can get there during the month of November, it certainly is a possibility.

On the other hand, if the market were to break down below the lows of the month in October, it’s possible that the market could drop down to the 17 pesos level, an area where we attempted to recover from during the bulk of the month. Anything below there then could open up quite a bit of significant selling pressure. While the pair is most certainly in a downtrend, it is worth noting that we recently have seen a surge higher, with October mainly being more or less a consolidation timeframe.

The 50-Week EMA is sitting in the middle of these couple of candlesticks on the weekly chart, and it of course does attract a certain amount of attention. It is also flattening out, which suggests that we are more likely than not to see a little bit of a consolidation in the meantime. However, if and when I see some type of impulsive candlestick, I am more than willing to follow it, regardless of the direction. Obviously, this is a market that can be quite noisy but we could be at a major inflection point that could become more of an investment than a trade if we do continue the turnaround.

EUR/USD Forecast: November 2023

Regarding the prospects for a more serious downturn, traders who feel compelled to be sellers and look for additional momentum lower cannot be blamed.

As of this writing the EUR/USD is near the 1.05730 as the month of November begins its trading, this mark is in the vicinity of where October’s trading got started. However, plenty of volatility was seen during the past handful of weeks for speculators and the road to profits was likely not easy. A high for the EUR/USD yesterday was near the 1.06760 mark, which actually came within sight of the high for October which was seen on the 24th when the currency pair traded near 1.06950.

A combination of rather contradictory economic data and global risk-averse conditions have not helped create a meaningful trend in the EUR/USD, except for a rather mixed value range with plenty of reversals. The U.S Federal Reserve will release its FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate this evening. The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates, but it is not anticipated to turn dovish either. Higher interest rates in the U.S are likely to remain stubborn over the mid-term, while inflation is showing some signs of erosion, U.S consumers however continue to spend.

The EUR/USD is Caught in a Vicious Circle

While the Fed sounds aggressive, its counterpart the ECB does not. Yes, the European Central Bank is warning about inflation, but the lackluster economic conditions in Europe make it almost impossible for the ECB to consider raising interest rates over the mid-term. This means higher yields via U.S Treasuries could stay attractive which may lead to a greater need for USD via financial institutions, which helps fuel a consistently strong USD and thus a rather mediocre EUR/USD when looking for upside.

However, at some point optimist will start to think there is going to be a change of direction. At some point risk appetite is going to spring forth. Certainly there are plenty of financial institutions and traders who think the EUR/USD has been oversold, but this may be a case of bias because of where the financial institutions and traders are located. The low for the EUR/USD was near the 1.04500 ratio, but a bullish speculator of the currency pair would certainly point out this occurred on the 3rd of October.

Support and Resistance within the EUR/USD via Choppy Results

• Traders should remain cautious regarding the EUR/USD based on the results since the middle of July. The EUR/USD remains near low water marks and the last time the currency pair traded within this vicinity was in March of 2023.
• Yesterday’s move lower in the EUR/USD perhaps not coincidentally occurred when European GDP numbers proved to be recessionary, and U.S consumer confidence remained strong.
• If the EUR/USD sustains value below the 1.06000 level this could continue to make short-term traders nervous and consider the potential that the 1.05500 support ratio below could be a target.

EUR/USD Outlook for November 2023:

Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.04350 to 1.07310

The month of October was unable to spark a sustained trend upwards in the EUR/USD and current economic conditions make the prospect of a bullish trend higher during November rather hard to imagine. However, technically some traders may continue to look for upside price action when the EUR/USD hits perceived support levels which they believe will generate reversals higher. Traders looking for these higher moves should not be overly ambitious. Until the EUR/USD can sustain value above the 1.06500 mark for a solid duration, traders should anticipate more mixed results.

Regarding the prospects for a more serious downturn, traders who feel compelled to be sellers and look for additional momentum lower cannot be blamed. The EUR/USD remains near important lows and support ratios near the 1.05500 and 1.05000 should be monitored. If the EUR/USD breaks below the 1.05500 and selling pressure remains high a test of the 1.05000 would not be surprising. If the EUR/USD were to break below the 1.05000 level and see sustained trading below this ratio, it could set off additional alarm bells and a drive towards lower depths again.

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#Gold and #WTI #CrudeOil Monthly Forecast: November 2023 (2 Nov 2023)

Gold Forecast: November 2023

It is worth noting that the mod had been so bullish that one could see a little bit of a pullback at this point, especially as the $2000 region is an area where we would see a lot of psychological resistance.

• Gold markets have had a very bullish month of October, and certainly there is a lot out there going on at the moment that could cause gold to continue to be noisy.
• Not the least of which of course is going to be the war between Israel and Hamas, and whether or not the entire region is going to kick off into a larger war.
• Because of this, there is probably going to be a bit of a bid for gold on pullbacks, and I believe that the month of November will probably play out that way.

That being said, we also need to pay attention to the interest rate markets, because the interest rates have been spiking in the United States, and that does work against gold quite often. That doesn’t necessarily mean that we have to do that same negative correlation at this point, just that the possibility does exist. In fact, it would not surprise me at all to see not only yields go crazy, but the US dollar strengthened, while the gold market will as well, all in a bit of a safety trade.

It is worth noting that the mod had been so bullish that one could see a little bit of a pullback at this point, especially as the $2000 region is an area where we would see a lot of psychological resistance. If we can break above there, then it’s possible that the market could go looking to the $2060 region in the spot gold market, which is where we peaked last time. We have seen a bit of a triple top in that area, going back to July 2021. Breaking through that region would be a very bullish sign, allowing gold to take off to the upside for a longer-term “buy-and-hold move.”

That being said, if we were to break back below the $1900 level, I suspect that would be a very negative turn of events for the market, and we could see a drop all the way down to the $1800 level. That would also be the 61.8% Fibonacci or to his level of the bigger move, but at this point it seems as if the market is likely to see plenty of buyers between here and there. All things being equal, I like the idea of buying dips overall.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: November 2023

The US dollar could strengthen and that could cause some issues for pricing, but at the end of the day it’s also likely that inflation will continue to be a major issue.

• The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market (US Oil) had a back-and-forth month during October, and I suspect we probably have more of the same ahead.
• After all, there are a lot of questions about the Middle East war, and whether or not it will expand. If Iran were to somehow be sucked into the conflict, that will almost certainly drive the price of oil higher.
• That being said, OPEC has already cut back some of the production, leading to the most recent rally. As we are closing the month of October, we are hanging about the 50-We EMA, a technical indicator that a lot of people pay attention to.

If we turn around and break above the $85 level, then it’s likely that we could go look into the $90 level, possibly even back to the highs of the last several weeks. Ultimately, the market is likely to see the $100 level as a target, but it would probably take some type of fundamental event to make that happen. All things being equal, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility based on the latest headline coming across the newswires, so therefore it’s going to be difficult to trade this market. That being said, I think it’s probably easier to be a buyer than a seller, because of the lack of supply, and the fact that the physical market itself is rather tight also.

The US dollar could strengthen and that could cause some issues for pricing, but at the end of the day it’s also likely that inflation will continue to be a major issue, and it is probably worth noting that the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil chart has been forming a bit of a bullish flag lately, and therefore we could get a move higher. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 50-Week EMA on a weekly close, then we could have a potential move down to the 200-Week EMA, which is closer to the $75 level. That would be a bit surprising considering all of the tensions and the lack of supply, but you can make an argument that a lack of demand might creep into the market as well.

All things being equal, I think that the crude oil market is trying to carve out some type of range right now, and therefore I think the market is likely to continue to see a lot of back and forth in this general vicinity, and I would not be surprised at all that the month of November into being volatile, but ultimately somewhat flat.

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#EURUSD Weekly Signal: Bearish Sentiment as Government Shutdown Starts (1 OCT 2023)

 Bearish view

• Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0400.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0675.
• Timeline: 1-5 days.

Bullish view

• Set a buy-stop at 1.0610 and a take-profit at 1.0700.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0500.

The EUR/USD exchange rate continued its free-fall as the US dollar rally gained momentum. The pair slipped to a low of 1.0485, the lowest level since November 2022. It has slipped in the past eleven straight weeks, the first time it happened in many years.

US government shutdown

The EUR/USD pair continued its downward trend after the relatively encouraging inflation numbers from the US and Europe. According to Eurostat, the headline consumer price index (CPI) dropped from 5.2% in August to 4.3% in September even as energy prices rose. This decline was better than the median estimate of 4.5%.

Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, dropped from 5.3% to 4.5%. These are highly encouraging numbers since they came at a time when Europe’s import costs are rising because of the weaker euro.

Meanwhile, in the United States, a closely watched inflation gauge also retreated in August. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index data retreated to 3.5% while core PCE dropped to 3.9%. These are important numbers since they are the Fed’s favorite inflation gauges.

Looking ahead, the main catalyst for the EUR/USD pair will be events in the United States, which is facing a prolonged government shutdown. The shutdown will have an impact on the economy since the government is the biggest employer in te country.

It will also affect the market by shutting down key statistics offices. For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to publish the latest JOLTs job openings data on Tuesday and the official non-farm payrolls (NFP) numbers on Friday.

The EUR/USD pair will react to the signs of the end of the government shutdown and other economic numbers from the private sector. The key data to watch will be the latest manufacturing and services PMI from the US and Europe and the ADP private payrolls numbers.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair continued its downward trend last week as traders continued reacting on September’s Federal Reserve decision. As it dropped, it slipped below the key support at 1.0644, the lowest point in June this year and March 2020. This price was the neckline of the double-top pattern that formed around 1.1100. The double-top is one of the most popular bearish signs.

The EUR/USD pair has also remains below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. Therefore, while it has formed a small bullish engulfing pattern, the path of the least resistance is downwards, with the next reference level being at 1.0400.

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#EURUSD and #USDJPY Forecast: 14 September 2023

EUR/USD Signal: Faces Uphill Battle Amidst US Dollar Strength

In summary, the euro grapples with the formidable headwinds posed by the resurgent US dollar and the imminent release of critical economic data.

• The EUR/USD encountered a challenging trading day on Wednesday, wrestling to gain ground in the face of the resolute US dollar's dominance.
• The prevailing market sentiment hints at a prolonged downward path for the euro, with the crucial 1.06 level looming on the horizon, set to garner significant attention from both investors and traders.

Looking to Fade Rallies

For a noteworthy shift in market dynamics, a breach above the 200-day EMA is a prerequisite. However, a significant transformation may only take shape when the 50-day EMA is surmounted, signaling a genuine attempt at recovery and a more pronounced shift in the market's trajectory.

In summary, the euro grapples with the formidable headwinds posed by the resurgent US dollar and the imminent release of critical economic data. As traders navigate the turbulence preceding these events, the strategy of fading rallies holds appeal. Nevertheless, exercising caution and adopting prudent risk management practices in the current climate is imperative. While interest rates remain a pivotal focus, the upward trajectory of US interest rates suggests that the US dollar will retain its allure in the foreseeable future, solidifying its position as the favored currency of choice.

Potential signal: If the EUR/USD CLOSES on Thursday below the 1.07 level, then I am selling this pair with a target of 1.0525 below, and a stop loss of 1.08 above. Keep in mind that the ECB has an interest rate decision on Thursday, hence the reason to wait for the dust to settle.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: the resistance target 150.00 Awaits

The rise in gas prices led to a rise in the inflation rate in the United States of America in August, but most other costs rose at a more modest pace, which is evidence that increases in consumer prices in general are still cool.

The American inflation figures were in favor of the dollar's gains and the Bank of Japan's accommodative policy continued. The bulls had a good opportunity to move the USD/JPY currency pair higher with gains towards the resistance level of 147.74. This was before settling around the level of 147.40 at the beginning of today's session, Thursday ahead of a new round of Important American economic data. The rise in gas prices led to a rise in the inflation rate in the United States of America in August, but most other costs rose at a more modest pace, which is evidence that increases in consumer prices in general are still cool.

In a set of conflicting data on Wednesday, the Labor Department said the US consumer price index rose 3.7 percent in August from a year ago, compared with an annual pace of 3.2 percent in July. However, excluding volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 4.3 percent, down from 4.7 percent in July, the smallest increase in nearly two years. This remains far from the US Federal Reserve Bank's target of 2%.

Despite the seemingly disparate numbers, the decline in the core measure could add to optimism that inflation is under control. The Fed tracks core rates closely because it is seen as a better indicator of future inflation trends. Yesterday's numbers also increase the possibility that the Federal Reserve Bank will skip raising American interest rates at its meeting next week. While higher gas prices could lead to higher inflation this month as well, most economists expect US inflation to slowly decline through the end of the year.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices jumped 0.6 percent in August, the biggest increase in more than a year. Gas prices rose nearly 11 percent in August, though they've leveled off since then: According to AAA, the average pump price nationwide was $3.84 on Tuesday, little changed from a month ago.

Expectations of the dollar against the Japanese yen today:

• There is no change in my technical point of view for the performance of the price of the currency pair USD/JPY.
• The general trend is still upward.
• The opportunity to move towards the psychological resistance of 150.00 is coming strongly in case the rest of the American data comes in today with a stronger result supporting a further tightening of the Federal Reserve Bank's policy.

Today is the announcement of US retail sales figures and the producer price index and the number of weekly jobless claims.

Investors ignore the arrival of technical indicators towards strong saturation levels by buying as long as the currency pair's strength factors remain, and a break will not occur without Japanese intervention in the markets to prevent further collapse of the Japanese yen price. Therefore, I still prefer to buy currency pairs from each bearish level in the near term.

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