#USDSGD Analysis: Range Ignites Speculative Volatility for Traders (23 April 2024)

The USD/SGD continues to trade within the upper boundaries of its long-term technical perspectives, but some traders may feel the ability to wager on technical resistance.

On Friday of last week the USD/SGD touched a high of nearly 1.36600 briefly. While the upside movement did create a high above the marks seen on Tuesday of last week, the price action of the currency pair on Friday took place in the wake of geopolitical concerns which shook global Forex momentarily. The USD/SGD did come down from the high water marks and went into the weekend near the 1.36160 vicinity.

Volatility has been a factor in global Forex the past week as the U.S has produced higher than expected inflation data and then had Jerome Powell essentially say the Fed was in an uncertain position regarding interest rates. Financial institutions which have clearly become more cautious have been buying the USD/SGD even as it has banged up against resistance and often proven the technical ratios are vulnerable.

Has the USD/SGD Traversed Too High?

Speculators may believe the USD/SGD has been overbought, but they need to be careful. The ability of the USD/SGD to incrementally climb in yesterday’s price action, and as of this writing trade near the 1.36285 mark is a reminder risk averse notions are still strong in financial institutions. This Thursday the U.S will release Gross Domestic Product numbers, but they will also publish the GDP Price Index. These numbers will impact Forex and the USD/SGD.

Until Thursday’s statistics from the U.S are released it is likely the USD/SGD will test its current trading range as financial institutions wait for the important data to clarify insights. However, the fact that inflation has proven stubborn is likely not going to disappear overnight. The U.S will also release important PCE inflation statistics on Friday. Meaning the last two days of this week will affect today and tomorrow – likely producing cautious movement in the USD/SGD.

Range Test in the USD/SGD for the Moment

The USD/SGD is still within the higher elements of its long-term price range as it fluctuates below highs seen in late September and during October of 2023. While traders may believe the USD/SGD will not touch those heights, they should remember the Federal Reserve has been bet against heavily the past couple of weeks and this has caused volatility and steady buying of the USD/SGD.

• The USD/SGD has been able to push lower, but in the short-term the 1.36150 to 1.36375 marks may continue to be tested on a constant basis until more clarity is delivered via U.S economic data.
• The volatility seen the past week of trading should serve as a reminder for all speculators to use solid risk taking tactics. The USD/SGD will get volatile again.

Singapore Dollar Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 1.36310

Current Support: 1.36210

High Target: 1.36390

Low Target: 1.36125

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#USDSGD Forecast: #US #Dollar Pulls Back Slightly Against Singapore Dollar (18 April 2024)

• The US dollar pulled back slightly during the trading session on Monday, as the 1.3650 level has offered a little bit in the way of resistance, but then turned around to show signs of exhaustion.
• Nonetheless, later in the day we have seen buyers come back into the picture to show signs of life, and this is rather impressive considering just how straight up in the air the US dollar has shot.

Keep in mind that the 50-Day EMA has broken above the 200-Day EMA, crossing over to form a “golden cross”, which of course is a bullish sign for a lot of longer-term traders that are willing to hang onto a currency pair. That being said, this is a market indicator that is quite often late to trade, but in the longer-term it does tend to pan out.

Underneath, the 1.35 level would be a significant support level that a lot of people will be paying close attention to, because not only is it an area where we had seen a lot of resistance, but we have also to keep in mind that there is a certain amount of psychological importance attached to it as well.

The US Dollar Eats Everything

The US dollar looks as if it is going to continue to strengthen against almost everything as long as we have seen interest rates rise, which is exactly what’s been happening. Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that it’s likely that we may have to wait to see rates being cut in the United States, and that of course has made the US dollar strengthen yet again. Furthermore, you have to pay close attention to the bond markets, and therefore what they are doing as far as buying and selling is concerned.

To the upside, if we can break above the 1.37 level, then it’s likely that we could go looking to the 1.40 level. The market has been very noisy, and therefore it’s likely that it will be a straight shot higher, despite the fact that it has been very bullish over the last week or so. Given enough time, I fully anticipate that we could go to the 1.40 SGD level, but it may take some time to get there is this pair is typically a slow mover.

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#USDSGD Analysis: Near-Term Trend Higher Resembles a Staircase Climb (16 April 2024)

The USD/SGD has powered to new highs in early trading this morning, this as the upwards momentum being generated brushes resistance away with relative ease.

• The climb higher in the USD/SGD has continued this morning and values are being sustained.
• The currency pair is traversing the 1.36525 vicinity as of this writing. On Wednesday of last week the USD/SGD was near 1.34400 before performing a swift reversal to the 1.35490 mark, since achieving this height the currency pair has taken on a look technically of a staircase.
• Bullish traders who have pursued the momentum have likely profited as sentiment has shifted.

The reason behind this upwards trajectory is clearly the stronger than anticipated U.S economic data via inflation reports, but yesterday’s better than expected Retail Sales numbers sparked additional buying. The U.S Federal Reserve had hopes of cutting interest rates in May or June of this year, and these visions of becoming more dovish have been swept aside. The USD/SGD is reacting with buying and is now touching values last seen in early November. Higher October values are in sight.

Resistance Levels are Vulnerable in the USD/SGD

While the CPI report last week from the U.S showed inflation is stubborn, yesterday’s consumer spending report shows Americans are still opening up their wallets and spending. Economists have been left scratching their heads along with Federal Reserve FOMC Members. The Singapore Dollar has mirrored other major currencies as it has lost value since the second week of March against the USD.

This morning’s economic data from China was mixed. Singapore has strong financial ties with China and the weaker than expected Industrial Production data today likely caused some concerns. However, China did show improved GDP results. The USD/SGD works as a lynchpin in financial transactions because of the amount of shipping and commercial enterprises Singapore does throughout Asia and globally. Resistance levels have been penetrated with ease recently and higher values have been sustained. China’s CNY is not showing a great deal of strength either.

Speculative Highs and Notions about Bullish Behavior Continuing

The price of the USD/SGD at this moment while technically high over the mid-term has seen loftier values. In October of 2023 the currency pair traversed a range that tested the 1.37000 levels rather steadily, yes, there were outliers, but the current heights of the USD/SGD are not unprecedented.

• The U.S is not releasing any major economic data today, but Fed officials will be speaking – but no surprises are expected from their mouths.
• The current values of the USD/SGD will likely see fast trading, but if the currency pair remains above the 1.36500 level this means more bullish sentiment is lingering.
• Traders should remain realistic and not get overly ambitious. The USD/SGD can reverse lower, and at some point financial institutions will believe equilibrium has been found.

Singapore Dollar Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 1.36620

Current Support: 1.36490

High Target: 1.36710

Low Target: 1.36090

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#USDSGD Slips; Could Get Support From Waning Fed Rate-Cut Bets (18 Jan 2024)

USD/SGD edges lower in the afternoon Asian session amid lower Treasury yields, which dim the appeal of U.S. fixed-income assets and demand for the greenback.

However, the currency pair is likely to be supported by waning Fed rate-cut bets. U.S. retail sales data surprised more strongly on Wednesday, which appears to have added to doubts about the possibility of a Fed rate cut as early as March, Maybank analysts say in an FX research & strategy report. USD/SGD is down 0.1% at 1.3437.

Singapore equities lead Southeast Asia

Singapore’s equities market outperformed Southeast Asian peers in December, with the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) advancing 5.4% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 3,240.27. Retail investors drove trading activity on SGX Securities for a third consecutive month, with growth across segments including index stocks, real-estate investment trusts (REIT) as well as small- and mid-cap stocks.

Securities daily average value (SDAV) held steady m-o-m in December at S$951 million, climbing 2% y-o-y. With the global interest-rate environment stabilising, the SDAV of REITs increased 2% m-o-m, with net inflows from institutional investors for the first time since January 2023.

The market turnover value of exchange-traded funds (ETF) grew 18% m-o-m in December to S$277 million. Two new ETFs with combined month-end assets under management (AUM) of S$118 million, up from S$56 million at launch, were listed under SGX Group’s product link with Shanghai Stock Exchange, a landmark initiative established in 2023 to promote stock market connectivity between Singapore and China.

During the month, SGX Securities welcomed the listing of 17Live, the first de-SPAC in both Singapore and major Asian markets.

On SGX Fixed Income, Asia’s leading international bond marketplace, the amount issued from 86 new bond listings stood at S$14.7 billion in December. Highlights included the inaugural US$1 billion, five-and-a-half-year Sukuk offering by the Republic of the Philippines; A$675 million Liberty Series 2023-1 Class A auto asset-backed notes and A$968 million Liberty Prime Series 2022-1 Class A1 mortgage-backed notes issued by Liberty Funding Pty Ltd.; and US$500 million green bonds due 2025 by Guangzhou Development District Holding Group Limited.

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