#INDICES ANALYSIS: #DAX30,#SP500,#CAC40,#FTSE100,#DOWJONES (24 MAY 2022)
DAX Forecast: Threatening 50-Day EMA
The best scenario is that you fade exhaustion candles.
The DAX rallied a bit on Monday as we initially gapped above the €14,000 level in the futures market. The market seems to be hanging around the 50-day EMA, and now the €14,250 level comes into the picture to offer resistance. Ultimately, I believe it is only a matter of time before the sellers come back in and start pushing this thing lower. Rallies at this point will continue to be looked at as a potential selling opportunity.
Tightening central banks, and of course, the global economy slowing down, continue to be a negative for the DAX, which makes quite a bit of sense as there are so many major exporters on the index. After all, the major exporters are going to need to have customers to export to. As risk appetite continues to fade in multiple economies around the world, it is difficult to imagine that Germany is going to be any different. This is especially true as the European economy itself looks so vulnerable over the last several months. The best scenario is that you fade exhaustion candles.
FTSE 100 Wave Analysis
- FTSE 100 reversed from support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 7550.00
FTSE 100 index recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 7225.00, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the upward correction 2 from March.
The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous downward impulse waves (iii) and 3.
FTSE 100 can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 7550.00 (top of the earlier minor correction (ii)).
Dow Jones Technical Analysis: Trying To Recoup Some Losses
Our expectations suggest a return to the index's decline during its upcoming trading.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded, rising during its recent trading at intraday levels, to achieve sharp gains in its last sessions, by 1.98%, to add to it about 618.34 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 31,880.25, after its decline in Friday's trading by -0.03 %.
Technically, the index is trying with this rise to compensate for part of what it incurred from previous losses. It is trying to drain some of its clear oversold by the relative strength indicators, especially with the beginning of a positive crossover in them. The index found some support after it relied on its penultimate session to support those the bearish corrective price channel. This channel limits its previous trading in the short term, as shown in the attached chart for a period (daily). It gained it some positive momentum, but it continues to suffer from negative pressure for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days.
Therefore, our expectations suggest a return to the index's decline during its upcoming trading, especially throughout its stability below the 32,000 resistance level, to target the support level 30,547.50.
CAC Forecast: Choppy Behavior in Downtrending Channel
In general, I have no interest in trying to get long.
The Parisian CAC Index gapped higher Monday but then pulled back to find buyers underneath. By doing so, it suggests that the market is going to try to rally again, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that there is resistance above. After all, the CAC is sensitive to risk appetite, so you need to be cautious about what you do if you are trying to buy into this market. After all, the CAC is heavily influenced by luxury goods, something that does not go well in times of recession or global slowdown.
If we were to turn around and break down below the €6200 level, it is likely that the market will drop to the €6100 level rather quickly. This is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of sellers, as people will be running away from risk appetite, and if Germany drops, so will Paris. During the trading session, Christine Lagarde suggested that perhaps the ECB would start to raise rates at a ¼ percentage clip, which could work against risk demand as well. Either way, we are in a decisively negative market, and I just do not see that changing anytime soon. I would be a seller of rallies but would also sell breakdowns below support. Further exacerbating trouble will be the energy problems in the European Union, as well as a war on the doorstep of the continent. In general, I have no interest in trying to get long.
S&P 500 Forecast: Index Recovers Slightly
I have no interest whatsoever in trying to buy this market, and I believe it is only a matter of time before we get the signal to start selling.
The S&P 500 rallied in the futures market on Monday as we are above the 3950 level. That being said, the 4000 level above is going to cause a certain amount of resistance, based upon the psychological importance of that level. That being said, we have sliced through it multiple times, so it is only somewhat important at this point. Ultimately, the market has seen a lot of negative pressure more than once, and I think that will continue to be the case going forward.
As things stand right now, I have no interest whatsoever in trying to buy this market, and I believe it is only a matter of time before we get the signal to start selling. In fact, we need to get above 4300 to even have that conversation, something that I do not expect to see anytime soon. It is a matter of getting an opportunity, and that means taking your time and being patient.
0 comments:
Post a Comment