#COMMODITY ANALYSIS: #GOLD,#Natural Gas & #WTI #CRUDEOIL FORECAST (24 MAY 2022)
Gold Forecast: Markets Fail at 200-Day EMA
Pay close attention to the US dollar as well, because the US dollar has a massive negative correlation to the gold market.
Gold markets initially tried to rally on Monday but then turned around to show signs of weakness. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, and I think will continue to going forward. After all, we have a line of technical resistance just above, so a little bit of a pullback would make sense. After all, we had bounced quite viciously, so with that being the scenario that we find ourselves in, I believe it is probably due for a short-term pullback.
If we were to break above the high for the trading session on Monday, then it would show a continuation of the momentum, allowing the gold market to reach the 50-day EMA above. Breaking above that level obviously would be bullish and it could open up the possibility of a move to the $1900 level. The market will pay close attention to that as well, as that has been important more than once. Pay close attention to the US dollar as well, because the US dollar has a massive negative correlation to the gold market. Furthermore, you need to pay a lot of attention to the bond market, because if yields start to spike again, is likely that we will see gold get punished. The alternate scenario is that yields suddenly drop, making gold much more attractive. Keep one eye on the 10-year yield, and another one on this chart.
Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Attacking Pivotal Resistance
We expect more rise for natural gas during its upcoming trading.
Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) rose in their recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve slight daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 0.88%. It settled at the price of $8.787 per million British thermal units, after rising sharply during yesterday’s trading by amounting to $8.787 per million British thermal units. 8.44%.
Natural gas futures rose on Monday, ending their two-day loss, as US exports gained more momentum and modest production to offset cooler near-term weather forecasts. June gas futures contracts in Nymex settled at $8.744 per million British thermal units, an estimated increase of 66.1 cents on the day. The July contract advanced by 64.9 cents to $8.827.
Meanwhile, US LNG exports on Monday rose more than 13 billion cubic feet, after exceeding that limit last Friday.
While domestic weather demand eased some forecasts on Monday, there is not enough to allay concerns about natural gas consumption outstripping supply in the event of a hot summer.
Technically, the price is attacking the pivotal resistance level 8.870 with its recent rise. This is the level at which it recorded the last peak on May 6, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend over the medium and short term along a trend line. This is shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, supported by its continuous trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days, in addition to the influx of positive signals on the relative strength indicators.
Therefore, we expect more rise for natural gas during its upcoming trading, but first it has to cross the resistance obstacle at 8.870, to target immediately after that the first resistance levels at 9.550.
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Price Hesitates
As far as a longer move is concerned, it will not be until we break out of this channel.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market rallied a bit on Monday but turned around and fell to show signs of hesitation. Because of this, the market is more likely than not going to continue to be noisy and choppy, to say the least. Because of this, I think you need to pay close attention to the overall channel that we have been in.
On the other hand, if we were to break above the $115 level, then we could go looking to the $120 level above. The $120 level then would allow a potential move to the $130 level. The $130 level is where we stalled previously, so a return to that level would make a certain amount of sense. Ultimately, you need to keep an eye on the barriers that we have been trading in, and then whether or not there is a global appetite for risk out there. Keep in mind that crude oil is a risk-based market, so you need to pay attention to whether or not people are trying to price in those types of trades.
When you look at this chart, you can see that we have been grinding back and forth but with a bit of a significant upward trajectory. Because of this, the market is one that I will be looking to buy on dips more than anything else. However, you will probably have to look at the short-term charts in order to find entries and exits. As far as a longer move is concerned, it will not be until we break out of this channel.
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