Commodity Analysis: #Gold,#WTI #CrudeOil (15 NOVEMBER 2022)

 Gold Forecast: Continues to Build Upward Pressure

The market will continue to pay close attention to the US dollar, and of course interest rates because they have such a huge negative correlation to gold.

• Gold markets have pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Monday, dipping below the 200-Day EMA before turning around and showing signs of blank again.
• By forming a hammer-shaped candlestick, it sets up a bigger move.
• We can either break to the upside and are looking to the $1800 level which is the next major area of previous support and the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure.

Pay Close Attention to the Greenback

The market will continue to pay close attention to the US dollar, and of course interest rates because they have such a huge negative correlation to gold. It is possible at this point that we would see at the very least some consolidation, so I would be a bit concerned if we shot straight up in the air since overbought markets tend to get wrecked.

There have been some rather large gold orders as of late, so the question is whether these big players are done at this point. If we do break out to the outside, then we could look at a move all the way to the $2000 level based on historical price action. I think we are going to continue to see a lot of stomach-churning volatility because quite frankly the Federal Reserve claims it is not done slowing down the economy. If rates continue to rise, in other words, if people believe the Federal Reserve, then we’ll see gold sold off quite drastically. On the other hand, if people choose to continue to ignore the Federal Reserve, we could see gold take off quite rapidly. At this point, it’s just a game of drama.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Pulls Back Again

All things being equal, the market is on the precipice of making a bigger move, but at this point I think you are better off letting the market do first before following.

• The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has shown itself to be a bit negative, as we have pulled back from the $90 level.
• The market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, as we see our going back and forth between the possibility of either a lack of demand or a lack of supply.
• After all, a lot of people are wondering whether the global economy is going to slow down, and if it does it makes a lot of sense that demand for crude oil will drop off if we do in fact have a major change in the economy to the downside.

Volatility Ahead

The US dollar of course has a certain amount of influence on this market as well, so if the dollar ends up dropping in value, that could make oil go higher since it will take more of those dollars to buy a barrel of oil. If we can break above the $95 level, then it’s possible that we could be looking to the $120 level over the longer term. More likely than not, this is the trajectory if we have any hope of economic strength.

On the other hand, if we turn around and break down below the $80 level, it could be very negative and send oil much slower. I suspect that we have a situation where volatility will continue to be a major influence on this market, so therefore you need to be very cautious with the position sizes you use, as it has been such a difficult market as of late. All things being equal, the market is on the precipice of making a bigger move, but at this point I think you are better off letting the market do first before following.

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