#INDICES Forecast: #NASDAQ,#DOWJONES & #SP500 (15 NOVEMBER 2022)

Dow Jones Technical Analysis: The Index Takes Profits

Investors focused on comments by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lail Brainard, in a live interview with Bloomberg.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to record losses in its last sessions, by -0.63%.
• The index lost the index by -211.16 points, settling at the end of trading at the level of 33,536.71, after rising in Friday's trading by 0.10%.
• On the last trading day of the week, the index had a gain of 4.15%.

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

Technically, the index’s decline comes as an attempt to reap the profits of its previous rises. To try to gain some positive momentum that may help it recover and rise again, amidst its impact on the breach of a bearish corrective slope in the short term. This is shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, with the continuation of the positive support for its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. In addition to this, we notice the start of the influx of positive signals on the relative strength indicators, after the indicator succeeded in discharging its overbought, which was evident in it earlier.

Therefore, we expect the index to return to the upside during its upcoming trading, provided that the 32,504.00 support level remains intact, to target the important and nearby 34,281.36 resistance level, in preparation for attacking it.

S&P 500 Forecast: Pulls Back from 200-Day EMA

So far, everybody on the Federal Reserve Board continues to reiterate the idea of a tight monetary policy going forward, so I just don’t see why the market is trying to front-run something that’s not going to happen.

• The S&P 500 pulled back from the 200-Day EMA during the trading session on Monday, as well as the 4000 level.
• There is a lot of noise in this area, so I suspect that we are probably going to see a little bit of a pullback.
• Whether or not this was the top of the short-term rally is a completely different question, but it should be noted that there is a huge options barrier in that area that people will be paying close attention to. It is because of this that I think it’s more likely than not we get a pullback in the short term.

Stocks Likely to Keep Losing Ground

On the other hand, if we do break above the 200-Day EMA, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the 4200 level. The 4200 level is followed by the 4300 level, but I have a hard time believing that we are going to get to that area without the Federal Reserve truly stepping back. So far, everybody on the Federal Reserve Board continues to reiterate the idea of a tight monetary policy going forward, so I just don’t see why the market is trying to front-run something that’s not going to happen.

Nonetheless, that’s exactly what has been happening, but another potential issue is out there, with contagion coming out of the crypto markets. More and more firms are learning that they have lost a ton of money in the FTX Ponzi scheme. Keep in mind that they will have to sell things that they own in order to cover some of the losses that they will never get their hands on again. Because of this, we may see selling in some of the most random places that you would think have very little to do it crypto.

NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Has a Sluggish Monday

Pay close attention to the fact that the bond market was closed on Friday, which was part of the 2D massive squeeze that we had seen.

• The NASDAQ 100 has gapped lower to kick off the trading week, showing signs of sluggish behavior.
• At this point, the market is more likely than not going to continue to try to go higher, but one of the main things you should be paying attention to is the bond market right now.
• After all, if interest rates start to rise again, that would be an extraordinarily negative influence on this market, as technology stocks tend to get hammered in that environment.

Pay close attention to the fact that the bond market was closed on Friday, which was part of the 2D massive squeeze that we had seen. While I recognize that we broke through a little bit of minor resistance, the reality is that the fundamentals still do not line up quite right for the NASDAQ 100 to take off. Ultimately, the overall attitude of the market will continue to be noisy, so therefore you need to be cautious about jumping “all in.”

I Remain Bearish Despite the Volatility

The 50-Day EMA has been somewhat important as of late, so it could offer a little bit of support. If we break down below there, then it’s likely that the market will try to fill the gap from last week, which could open the possibility of a move down to the 11,000 level. Anything below there could open a huge move lower.

The Federal Reserve is nowhere near loosening monetary policy, even though Wall Street is kicking and screaming for it. Lael Brainard sounded somewhat dovish during the day, so that may have had something to do with some of the positivity. However, I would point out that late in the day the NASDAQ 100, or the other risk assets out there did not behave very well. Because of this, we could very well find ourselves slipping back into the consolidation area that we had been in for a while. I’m not completely sold on the idea of going higher, but if we broke above the 12,000 level it is possible that we could go looking to the 200-Day EMA near the 12,500 level. Ultimately, I’m still bearish but I recognize that we have a lot of volatility ahead of us, so there’s no need to jump into the market in one direction or the other.

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