Commodity Analysis: #Gold,#WTI #CrudeOil & #Naturalgas (9 NOVEMBER 2022)

Gold Technical Analysis: Prices Witness Bullish Breaches

The continuation of the US dollar price allowed the XAU/USD gold price to move strongly upwards, breaching the psychological resistance level of 1700 dollars an ounce. Gains extended to the resistance level of 1717 dollars an ounce, the highest in prices in a month, and it settles around the 1711 dollars an ounce at the time of writing the analysis. Besides the dollar's decline, gold gained momentum from lower bond yields as investors looked ahead to US inflation data, due to be released later in the week.

The most important milestone for the markets this week of Election Day may be the upcoming inflation report on Thursday. This data, which economists expect to show for the fourth consecutive month of slowing gains from the summer peak, is likely to have a much larger impact on what the Fed does in terms of interest rates.

XAU/USD Gold Price Forecast Today:

I also expected before that the stability of the XAU/USD gold price above the $1685 resistance will support the bulls to test the $1700 psychological resistance in a row. This may increase technical buying deals, taking advantage of the absence of the US dollar from the markets. Until the US inflation figures are announced, which will have a strong reaction to the future market expectations for the policy of the US Federal Reserve.

• The recent gains have moved the technical indicators towards overbought levels.
• If gold does not gain more momentum, it may be exposed to profit-taking at any time.
• The closest targets for the bulls are currently the resistance levels of 1728 and 1740 dollars, and they can be sold with no risk.
• On the other hand, according to the performance on the daily chart below, the price movement towards the support level of 1678 dollars will be important for the bears to control the trend again.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Struggles With the 200-Day EMA

I do think the crude oil has an interesting couple of weeks ahead of it, since the decisions to be made about its pricing are all over the place as we must worry about global demand dropping, and then of course the idea that OPEC has cut production.

• The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen just a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as the 200-Day EMA continues to offer a little bit of trouble.
• At this point, the market is likely to see a lot of resistance, as the 200-Day EMA is such an important indicator.
• The 200-Day EMA indicator is relatively flat but is starting to drift a little bit lower. The dynamic ceiling in that area could cause you trouble if you are bullish.

Volatility Ahead

I do think the crude oil has an interesting couple of weeks ahead of it, since the decisions to be made about its pricing are all over the place as we must worry about global demand dropping, and then of course the idea that OPEC has cut production. In other words, there’s a lot of volatility in both directions just waiting to happen.

Ultimately, I think this is a market that will have to deal with making a bigger decision, but you could make a huge argument for the fact that the market is trying to form either some type of inverted head and shoulders, or a rounding bottom pattern. It’s a little early to make that decision, but at this point I think we’ve got a scenario where you must look at it through the prism of a potential turnaround. The $80 level underneath should be considered the “floor in the market” for the short term. The market seems to be awfully resilient these days.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Price is Expected to Drop

These large inventory builds could increase gas stocks to near or even above normal levels for the first time since January 2022.

• Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) declined in early trading on Wednesday, recording slight daily losses until the moment of writing this report.
• It went down by -0.36% to settle at a price of $5.801 per million British thermal units.
• This happens after declining during yesterday’s trading by - 7.12%.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Technically, the decline in natural gas comes as a result of touching the resistance of its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. This coincided with its retest of a major bullish slope line in the medium term that the price had broken earlier, as shown in the attached chart for a period (daily), considering the dominance of the corrective bearish trend in the short term.

In addition to the above and in addition to those negative pressures, we notice the start of negative signals in the relative strength indicators, after they reached areas of severe overbought. This was exaggerated compared to the price movement, starting to form negative divergence in them.

Therefore, our expectations indicate more decline for natural gas during its upcoming trading, as long as the 6.412 resistance remains intact, to target the pivotal 5.310 support level.

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