#Gold,#Silver & #Natural Gas Forecast (19 July 2023)

Gold Forecast: Shows Signs of Strength

Any significant movements or developments in the US dollar could potentially influence the direction of gold markets.

The gold market witnessed a noteworthy rally during Tuesday's trading session, with signs indicating a potential breakthrough of significant resistance. While the path towards the $2000 level is bound to be accompanied by considerable noise, market participants are eyeing it as a likely target. However, immediate support is anticipated from the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average located just below the current levels. Recent market trends reveal notable volatility, but the crucial factor to consider is the reliable support offered by the 200-Day EMA at the 61.8% Fibonacci level.

Expectations point to continued volatility in the market; however, buyers are anticipated to seize opportunities to acquire value, as gold has proven its resilience time and again. A decisive breach above the $2000 level would likely ignite a significant surge in gold markets, potentially driving prices up by another $50. It is important to note that interest rates are being closely monitored, as any downward drift in rates could facilitate gold appreciation, as historically observed in their inverse relationship.

• At present, the gold market offers favorable conditions for value-seeking investors.
• Nevertheless, it is crucial to exercise caution due to the prevailing volatility.
• When positioning trades, it is advisable to carefully consider the appropriate size to mitigate risks.
• Despite the associated risks, the market presents buying opportunities with pullbacks.

Personally, I intend to add to my position as the market demonstrates upward momentum, although progress is expected to be more gradual than explosive. It is worth noting that shorting gold should not be considered until a break below the 200-Day EMA, which aligns with the $1900 level and the 61.8% Fibonacci support.

Furthermore, it is prudent to closely monitor the performance of the US dollar, as there exists a negative correlation between the greenback and gold prices most of the time. Any significant movements or developments in the US dollar could potentially influence the direction of gold markets.

In conclusion, the gold market is currently displaying signs of strength as it attempts to overcome significant resistance. While the $2000 level remains a target, investors should be prepared for a turbulent journey. The 50-Day EMA is expected to provide support, and the 200-Day EMA has proven to be a reliable indicator at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. As market participants navigate the volatility, opportunities to acquire value are likely to emerge. However, caution is advised, and position sizes should be carefully considered. Shorting gold should only be considered if the 200-Day EMA is breached. Additionally, the inverse correlation between gold and the US dollar should be closely monitored for potential market shifts.

Silver Forecast: Traders Eye Potential Entry Points

Silver prices experienced a slight uptick on Tuesday, hovering around the $25 level following a recent surge. This psychologically significant figure has played a role in shaping market movements, with a mild correction expected. Technical analysis suggests a potential entry point around $24.50, a previous resistance level. Traders should closely monitor critical support levels and keep a watchful eye on the performance of the US dollar, as it maintains a negative correlation with silver.

Following a rapid ascent, it is natural for silver to encounter a period of consolidation and undergo a mild correction. This pullback can be viewed as a necessary step to attract more buyers and sustain the overall upward trajectory. Last week's lower-than-expected inflation numbers in the United States prompted traders to seek wealth preservation, leading to a surge in silver prices driven by decreasing bond yields.

• Technical analysis suggests a potential entry point for silver around the $24.50 level, which previously served as a resistance level.
• This area should be closely monitored for potential buying opportunities.
• However, in the event that the market breaks below this level, traders should shift their focus to the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average as a critical support level.

On the upside, a breakout above the current consolidation range could propel silver prices towards the $26 level and potentially even reach the recent highs near $26.45, given sufficient time. To determine the future direction of silver, careful attention must be paid to the performance of the US dollar, as the negative correlation between the two markets appears to be regaining prominence. Monitoring the US Dollar Index provides valuable insights into the potential movement of silver.

Considering the current market conditions, the possibility of shorting silver would only be worth considering if it breaks below the 200-Day EMA, which is currently near the $23.25 level. However, such a scenario seems unlikely in the near future. Therefore, the favored strategy in this market is to "buy on the dips." While a retest of the recent highs is anticipated, a short-term pullback before reaching that point is plausible.

Silver's recent consolidation near the $25 level presents a potential entry point around $24.50, a previous resistance level. Traders should closely monitor the 50-Day EMA as a critical support level. A breakout above the consolidation range could propel silver prices towards the $26 level and beyond. Given its negative correlation with silver, the performance of the US dollar remains a significant factor to consider. Shorting silver is unlikely unless it breaks below the 200-Day EMA near $23.25. As the silver market continues to evolve, prudent observation and strategic decision-making will be key for traders seeking opportunities in this dynamic environment.

Natural Gas Forecast: Market Shows Signs of Recovery

Patience and careful observation will be key as market conditions evolve, and opportunities arise to capitalize on the natural gas market's recovery.

The natural gas market experienced a modest rally during Tuesday's trading session, with the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average continuing to provide substantial support. This suggests that the market is gearing up to challenge the important $3.00 level, which has proven significant on multiple occasions. Additionally, the $3.00 level holds psychological importance as a large, round figure, making it likely that breaking above this resistance will be met with difficulty. Should the market successfully breach this level, it opens up the potential for further gains towards the 200-Day EMA, approximately $0.50 higher.

In the event of a pullback from current levels, there is a possibility of the market retracing towards the $2.00 level. However, this level serves as a major support zone, given the formation of a range throughout the summer months. It is important to consider that summer typically exhibits seasonal weakness for natural gas. The absence of Russian gas in the European market this year necessitates replenishment of natural gas supplies, which can drive European suppliers to acquire liquefied natural gas from the United States. Consequently, this increased demand may propel prices higher.

• Considering the current market conditions, it is crucial to exercise patience, as the breakout may occur at a later stage.
• The formation of a large "rounding bottom" suggests a longer-term investment approach.
• A decisive breakthrough of the $3.00 level could attract substantial capital from market participants seeking to capitalize on the potential move.
• Confirmation of a sustained upward trajectory would come with a breach above the 200-Day EMA, indicating the possibility of prices climbing as high as $5.00, another psychologically significant milestone.

Overall, the natural gas market is anticipated to exhibit substantial volatility, but with a general upward trajectory. While the journey may be marked by fluctuations, the support provided by the 50-Day EMA underscores the market's resilience. Investors should remain aware of the potential noise in the market but maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook. It is crucial to consider the possibility of a retracement towards the $2.00 level, which holds significant support. Moreover, the absence of Russian gas in the European market is likely to drive increased demand for liquefied natural gas from the United States, potentially boosting prices. Patience and careful observation will be key as market conditions evolve, and opportunities arise to capitalize on the natural gas market's recovery.

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Commodity Analysis: #Gold,#WTI #CrudeOil & #Naturalgas (9 NOVEMBER 2022)

Gold Technical Analysis: Prices Witness Bullish Breaches

The continuation of the US dollar price allowed the XAU/USD gold price to move strongly upwards, breaching the psychological resistance level of 1700 dollars an ounce. Gains extended to the resistance level of 1717 dollars an ounce, the highest in prices in a month, and it settles around the 1711 dollars an ounce at the time of writing the analysis. Besides the dollar's decline, gold gained momentum from lower bond yields as investors looked ahead to US inflation data, due to be released later in the week.

The most important milestone for the markets this week of Election Day may be the upcoming inflation report on Thursday. This data, which economists expect to show for the fourth consecutive month of slowing gains from the summer peak, is likely to have a much larger impact on what the Fed does in terms of interest rates.

XAU/USD Gold Price Forecast Today:

I also expected before that the stability of the XAU/USD gold price above the $1685 resistance will support the bulls to test the $1700 psychological resistance in a row. This may increase technical buying deals, taking advantage of the absence of the US dollar from the markets. Until the US inflation figures are announced, which will have a strong reaction to the future market expectations for the policy of the US Federal Reserve.

• The recent gains have moved the technical indicators towards overbought levels.
• If gold does not gain more momentum, it may be exposed to profit-taking at any time.
• The closest targets for the bulls are currently the resistance levels of 1728 and 1740 dollars, and they can be sold with no risk.
• On the other hand, according to the performance on the daily chart below, the price movement towards the support level of 1678 dollars will be important for the bears to control the trend again.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Struggles With the 200-Day EMA

I do think the crude oil has an interesting couple of weeks ahead of it, since the decisions to be made about its pricing are all over the place as we must worry about global demand dropping, and then of course the idea that OPEC has cut production.

• The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen just a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as the 200-Day EMA continues to offer a little bit of trouble.
• At this point, the market is likely to see a lot of resistance, as the 200-Day EMA is such an important indicator.
• The 200-Day EMA indicator is relatively flat but is starting to drift a little bit lower. The dynamic ceiling in that area could cause you trouble if you are bullish.

Volatility Ahead

I do think the crude oil has an interesting couple of weeks ahead of it, since the decisions to be made about its pricing are all over the place as we must worry about global demand dropping, and then of course the idea that OPEC has cut production. In other words, there’s a lot of volatility in both directions just waiting to happen.

Ultimately, I think this is a market that will have to deal with making a bigger decision, but you could make a huge argument for the fact that the market is trying to form either some type of inverted head and shoulders, or a rounding bottom pattern. It’s a little early to make that decision, but at this point I think we’ve got a scenario where you must look at it through the prism of a potential turnaround. The $80 level underneath should be considered the “floor in the market” for the short term. The market seems to be awfully resilient these days.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Price is Expected to Drop

These large inventory builds could increase gas stocks to near or even above normal levels for the first time since January 2022.

• Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) declined in early trading on Wednesday, recording slight daily losses until the moment of writing this report.
• It went down by -0.36% to settle at a price of $5.801 per million British thermal units.
• This happens after declining during yesterday’s trading by - 7.12%.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Technically, the decline in natural gas comes as a result of touching the resistance of its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. This coincided with its retest of a major bullish slope line in the medium term that the price had broken earlier, as shown in the attached chart for a period (daily), considering the dominance of the corrective bearish trend in the short term.

In addition to the above and in addition to those negative pressures, we notice the start of negative signals in the relative strength indicators, after they reached areas of severe overbought. This was exaggerated compared to the price movement, starting to form negative divergence in them.

Therefore, our expectations indicate more decline for natural gas during its upcoming trading, as long as the 6.412 resistance remains intact, to target the pivotal 5.310 support level.

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Natural Gas Futures Drop Sharply after Rebound Falters (19 SEPTEMBER 2022)

Natural gas futures (October 2022 delivery) have drifted lower again after their recent advance failed to cross above the 9.210 mark. Even though the latest downward spike seems to have encountered significant support at the lower Bollinger band, the near-term technical picture is constantly deteriorating.

The momentum indicators also reflect that bearish forces have gained the upper hand. Specifically, the stochastic oscillator is descending in the oversold territory, while the MACD histogram has dived below both zero and its red signal line.

In the negative scenario, further declines could meet support at the 7.000 psychological mark. Should that floor collapse, the bears could aim for 6.450 before the July low of 5.310 appears on the radar. A break below the latter may open the door for the 4.280 hurdle.

Alternatively, if buyers attempt to push the price higher, the recent support of 7.750 might provide immediate resistance. Violating this region, the price could ascend towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at 8.320. Even higher, the recent peak of 9.210 could prove to be a hard ceiling for the price to break through.

All in all, natural gas futures appear unable to reverse their recent downfall as negative momentum is constantly strengthening, but the commodity retains a bullish medium-term outlook. For that to alter, the price needs to dip below the 5.310 floor.

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Pairs in Focus This Week – #GBPUSD,#NZDUSD,#NaturalGas with Fundamental Analysis & Behavioral Sentiment (22-26 AUGUST 2022)

The difference between success and failure in Forex / CFD trading is very likely to depend mostly upon which assets you choose to trade each week and in which direction, and not on the exact methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits.

So, when starting the week, it is a good idea to look at the big picture of what is developing in the market as a whole, and how such developments and affected by macro fundamentals, technical factors, and market sentiment. Read on to get my weekly analysis below.

Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment

I wrote in my previous piece on 14th August that the best trades for the week were likely to be:

• Looking for short-term long trades in the S&P 500 Index during periods of short-term bullish momentum. However, we did not really see any bullish momentum here last week.

The news is currently dominated by the FOMC meeting minutes which were released last week, showing that the Fed remains determined to continue hiking rates until inflation is brought considerably lower, and that Fed members are worried about the economic impact of the ongoing rate hikes. Recent inflation data released in the US and Canada showed inflation slowing, but inflation in the UK was revealed last week to be still increasing, now standing there at an annualized rate of 10.3%. The shift is sentiment is towards risk-off, which has had the effect of knocking down stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, and strongly boosting the US Dollar, mostly at the expense of the commodity currencies NZD, AUD, and CAD.

It is worth pointing out that although the US stock market had been rising in recent week, the US stock market has technically been in a bear market for some time, with the US yield curve being inverted for several weeks now. The US is also arguably in a recession, having seen two successive quarters of GDP contraction, although wages growth and the job market remain relatively buoyant.

To recap there were a few other important economic data releases last week apart from the FOMC meeting minutes. The results were as follows:

1. UK CPI data – an annualized rate of inflation of 10.3% was reported compared to the rate of 9.8% which had been expected.
2. Canadian CPI data – a month-on-month increase of only 0.1% was reported, which had been expected.
3. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate, Rate Statement, and Monetary Policy Statement – the RBNZ hiked its rate of interest by 0.50% to 3.00%, the highest rate of any major currency, and signaled a more hawkish tightening path over the coming months.
4. Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – the RBA signaled an intent to take further tightening steps but did not define the path clearly.
5. US Retail Sales data – the core data came in more strongly than had been expected, showing a month on month increase of 0.4% when a decrease by 0.1% had been widely forecast.
6. Australian Unemployment data – there was a net loss of approximately 40k new jobs when a gain had been expected, but the headline unemployment rate fell to 3.4%.

The Forex market saw a strong rise by the US Dollar last week. The rise was broad but especially strong against the commodity currencies, especially the New Zealand Dollar.

Rates of coronavirus infection globally dropped last week for the fifth consecutive week. The most significant growths in new confirmed coronavirus cases overall right now are happening in South Korea, Moldova, the Marshall Islands, and Tonga.

The Week Ahead: 22nd August – 26th August 2022

The coming week in the markets is likely to show a lower level of volatility compared to last week, although there will be a release of preliminary GDP data for the US that could move the market despite the low level of important data releases due. Releases due are, in order of likely importance:

1. US Preliminary GDP data
2. US Core PCI Price Index data
3. US, UK, German, and French Flash PMI data
4. Jackson Hole Symposium (central bankers)

Technical Analysis

U.S. Dollar Index

The weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed a long, strongly bullish candlestick which closed right on its high, in line with the long-term trend, which is bullish. The weekly closing price is a 20-year high, and the week’s strong rise came after the price rejected the support level below just under 105.00. These are all very strong bullish signs.

It will probably be a good idea to look for long trades in the US Dollar over the coming week. This is a very powerful, long-term bullish trend in the most important currency in the Forex market, and it remains likely to continue as long as sentiment remains driven by the fear of ongoing interest rate hikes negatively impacting risky assets, with the US Dollar acting as a primary safe haven.

GBP/USD

Last week saw the GBP/USD currency pair print a large, bearish engulfing candlestick. The British Pound was not one of the biggest losers against the strong US Dollar over the week, but this pair is technically interesting as it printed the lowest weekly close seen since the coronavirus panic in March 2020.

The price briefly traded below $1.1800 on Friday before closing a little higher than that.

The British Pound is beset by fundamental woes, including new increased inflation figures above 10%, and a Bank of England forecast of a coming recession which will last for five quarters and see GDP shrink by 2.2%.

The strength of the US Dollar and the technical breakdown we see here, plus fundamental headwinds against the Pound, see a short trend trade opportunity in this currency pair. However, it is important to use relatively tight stop losses for the British Pound, as using ATR 1 has over the years produced much better results than the more typical ATR 3.

NZD/USD

The New Zealand Dollar was the biggest loser of all major currencies last week, despite the RBNZ’s rate hike by 0.50% to 3.00%, the highest rate of any major currency. However, there was no technical breakdown below recent support.

It is notable that the price closed right on the low of the week, which is a bearish sign.

There may be further bearish momentum in the NZD/USD currency pair over the coming week, with all the commodity currencies weak and the NZD weakest of all showing this can be an interesting currency on the short side.

Natural Gas

Although we are seeing a bearish market with most commodities and risky assets shrinking against safe havens such as the US Dollar, we have seen Natural Gas gain strongly over the past week to make new multi-year highs.

Volatility is very high and price movement can be extremely choppy.

Long natural gas can be an attractive trend trade as we are seeing a breakout in the price chart. However, anyone trading natural gas should be very, very mindful of the extremely high level of volatility we have seen here over recent months, and trade very small position sizes which respect the volatility.

As commodities in general and energies are quite weak, I do not have very strong faith in a long trade here, which is another reason to keep the position size very small if you are trading natural gas over the coming week.

Bottom Line

I see the best opportunities in the financial markets this week as likely to be:

1. Short of the GBP/USD currency pair, and
2. Long of Natural Gas.

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#Natural #Gas,#SP500,#GBPAUD Wave Analysis (26 MAY 2022)

 GBPAUD:

• GBPAUD reversed from support level 1.7620
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.7825

GBPAUD recently reversed up from the support level 1.7620, which is the lower boundary of the tight sideways price range inside which the pair has been moving from the start of May.

The support level 1.7620 was further strengthened by the 20-day moving average and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the earlier upward correction (ii).

GBPAUD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.7825 (upper boundary of the active sideways price range).

SP500:

• S&P 500 rising inside wave (iv)
• Likely to reach resistance level 4100.00

S&P 500 index earlier reversed up from the key support level 3900.00, standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily down channel from January.

The upward reversal from the support level 3900.00 started the active short-term correction (iv).

S&P 500 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 4100.00 (top of the earlier minor correction (iv)).

Natural Gas:

• Natural gas broke round resistance level 9.0000
• Likely to rise to resistance level 9.65

Natural gas recently broke above the round resistance level 9.0000 (which stopped the earlier minor impulse wave 3 at the start of May, as can be seen below).

The breakout of the resistance level 9.0000 continues the active short-term impulse wave 5 of the multi-month upward impulse wave (C) from December.

Given the strong daily uptrend, Natural gas can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 9.65 (target for the end of the active sub-impulse (iii)).

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#COMMODITY ANALYSIS: #GOLD,#Natural Gas & #WTI #CRUDEOIL FORECAST (24 MAY 2022)

 

Gold Forecast: Markets Fail at 200-Day EMA

Pay close attention to the US dollar as well, because the US dollar has a massive negative correlation to the gold market.

Gold markets initially tried to rally on Monday but then turned around to show signs of weakness. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, and I think will continue to going forward. After all, we have a line of technical resistance just above, so a little bit of a pullback would make sense. After all, we had bounced quite viciously, so with that being the scenario that we find ourselves in, I believe it is probably due for a short-term pullback.

If we were to break above the high for the trading session on Monday, then it would show a continuation of the momentum, allowing the gold market to reach the 50-day EMA above. Breaking above that level obviously would be bullish and it could open up the possibility of a move to the $1900 level. The market will pay close attention to that as well, as that has been important more than once. Pay close attention to the US dollar as well, because the US dollar has a massive negative correlation to the gold market. Furthermore, you need to pay a lot of attention to the bond market, because if yields start to spike again, is likely that we will see gold get punished. The alternate scenario is that yields suddenly drop, making gold much more attractive. Keep one eye on the 10-year yield, and another one on this chart.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Attacking Pivotal Resistance

We expect more rise for natural gas during its upcoming trading.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) rose in their recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve slight daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 0.88%. It settled at the price of $8.787 per million British thermal units, after rising sharply during yesterday’s trading by amounting to $8.787 per million British thermal units. 8.44%.

Natural gas futures rose on Monday, ending their two-day loss, as US exports gained more momentum and modest production to offset cooler near-term weather forecasts. June gas futures contracts in Nymex settled at $8.744 per million British thermal units, an estimated increase of 66.1 cents on the day. The July contract advanced by 64.9 cents to $8.827.

Meanwhile, US LNG exports on Monday rose more than 13 billion cubic feet, after exceeding that limit last Friday.

While domestic weather demand eased some forecasts on Monday, there is not enough to allay concerns about natural gas consumption outstripping supply in the event of a hot summer.

Technically, the price is attacking the pivotal resistance level 8.870 with its recent rise. This is the level at which it recorded the last peak on May 6, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend over the medium and short term along a trend line. This is shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, supported by its continuous trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days, in addition to the influx of positive signals on the relative strength indicators.

Therefore, we expect more rise for natural gas during its upcoming trading, but first it has to cross the resistance obstacle at 8.870, to target immediately after that the first resistance levels at 9.550.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Price Hesitates

As far as a longer move is concerned, it will not be until we break out of this channel.

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market rallied a bit on Monday but turned around and fell to show signs of hesitation. Because of this, the market is more likely than not going to continue to be noisy and choppy, to say the least. Because of this, I think you need to pay close attention to the overall channel that we have been in.

On the other hand, if we were to break above the $115 level, then we could go looking to the $120 level above. The $120 level then would allow a potential move to the $130 level. The $130 level is where we stalled previously, so a return to that level would make a certain amount of sense. Ultimately, you need to keep an eye on the barriers that we have been trading in, and then whether or not there is a global appetite for risk out there. Keep in mind that crude oil is a risk-based market, so you need to pay attention to whether or not people are trying to price in those types of trades.

When you look at this chart, you can see that we have been grinding back and forth but with a bit of a significant upward trajectory. Because of this, the market is one that I will be looking to buy on dips more than anything else. However, you will probably have to look at the short-term charts in order to find entries and exits. As far as a longer move is concerned, it will not be until we break out of this channel.

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