#Gold (#XAUUSD),#Silver,#WTI & #Natural Gas Technical Forecast:21 FEB 2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: Gold Price Awaits Stimulus

Reports recently showed more strength than expected in everything from the labor market to retail sales to inflation itself, sparking fears that the US Federal Reserve will have to get tougher on interest rates.

• Amid a temporary halt to the gains of the US dollar, the gold (XAU/USD) price gained a positive momentum to rebound to the upside, stable around the level of $1847 an ounce.
• This happened after strong selling operations that the gold market was exposed to last week, with losses towards the support level of $1819 an ounce, the lowest price of XAU/USD for nearly two months.
• The downward momentum of prices increased after the return of strong expectations for the future of US central bank policy tightening in light of strong and positive readings of the US economic sectors.

Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast

According to the performance on the daily timeframe chart, the gold price is still on a downward track, and despite the technical indicators reaching oversold levels. If the US dollar’s strength continues, the price of gold may be subject to a move towards the next stronger support levels at $1824 and $1800, respectively. It is better to buy gold without the risk of waiting for an upward correction.

On the other hand, over the same time period, the outlook for the gold price will not change without returning to the vicinity of the $1885 resistance level again. The price of gold today will be affected by the level of the US dollar price and the extent to which investors are willing to take risks, as well as the reaction from the announcement of the readings of the manufacturing and services sectors of the global economies.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: The Price is Showing More Negative Signs

The main question among commodity traders now is whether we will see a response in power generation in terms of volume to lower gas prices. It would cause a shift away from coal use, boosting inventories and thus supporting prices.

• Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) settled down during their early trading on Tuesday, stable at their lowest level in two years.
• It achieved slight daily gains until the moment of writing this report, at a rate of 1.39%.
• It settled at a price of 2.335, after declining in yesterday’s trading and for the fourth session respectively by -1.16%. During the past week prices recorded a decline of -12.38%.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Technically, the main bearish trend dominates the movement of natural gas in the medium and short term along a main slope line, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period. It also suffers from continued negative pressure due to its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50-day period.

In addition to that, we note Divergence is negative in the relative strength indicators. It occurs because of reaching areas that are highly saturated with buying operations, to an exaggerated degree compared to the price movement, to confirm this with the start of negative signals from them. It doubles the negative pressures on its upcoming trades.

Therefore, our expectations indicate that natural gas will continue to decline during its upcoming trading, especially as long as it stabilizes below 2.432, to target psychological support at 2.00.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Choppy Behavior in Thin Volume

Most range-bound traders love crude oil at the moment, but eventually, we could break out of this range.

Crude Oil Waiting for the Next Catalyst

At this point, we should anticipate back-and-forth trading more than anything else. With that being the case, we are probably going to be better off looking at this through the prism of a range-bound system. Most range-bound traders love crude oil at the moment, but eventually, we could break out of this range. The $82 level above has been the ceiling, with the $72 level underneath being support. If we can break out of there, we can move up by about $10. Until we get some type of catalyst, that's going to be difficult.

In summary, during Monday's trading session, the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market rallied a bit, but we saw a lot of noisy and choppy behavior in thin volume. We are currently in the middle of a major consolidation area and may see a less-than-straightforward move ahead due to questions about global demand for crude oil. We should anticipate back-and-forth trading, and we may be better off looking at this market through the prism of a range-bound system. If we can break out of the current range, we may move up by about $10. Until then, breaking out of the range will be difficult without a catalyst.

• Overall, I anticipate that the market will continue to see a lot of hesitation, but if you are focused on short-term charts with perhaps using the Stochastic Oscillator, you may do quite well.
• While we do not know where the markets are going to go next, the reality is that even though there is relatively tight supply, if there are not enough buyers out there, it won’t matter.
• Furthermore, Russia seems to be able to sell oil to India and China, and as a result the flow of crude oil continues, despite the sanctions by the West.

Silver Forecast: Silver Continues the Bounce From Last Week

The silver market has been extraordinarily bullish, and this appears to be a great opportunity for traders to pick up some value in the market.

The silver market showed some signs of life during the trading session on Monday, despite the initial pullback. The $22 level is currently acting as significant resistance and could cause a bit of difficulty if the price continues to rise. If the $22 level is broken, we can anticipate a potential move to the $22.50 level and then potentially to the 50-Day EMA, which is also an area that has seen resistance in the past. The $22.70 level is also an area where we could expect some resistance.

Silver Could Reach the Highs

• A move above all these levels could mean that silver is headed for the upside and could reach the highs we have recently seen
• Keep in mind that silver has a negative correlation with the US dollar.
• So, if the dollar starts to sell off, silver will likely benefit.

The 50% Fibonacci level has offered significant support during Friday’s trading, forming a nice-looking hammer that is expected to attract interest from many traders. However, there is no guarantee that this support level will hold. If the hammer is broken, the price could drop down to the $20 level, and even as low as $19.50, where it previously took off from.

It is important to keep in mind that silver is an extremely volatile market under the best of conditions, and the prices can fluctuate significantly. Therefore, it is advisable to keep your position size reasonable. The silver market has been extraordinarily bullish, and this appears to be a great opportunity for traders to pick up some value in the market.

In conclusion, the silver market has recently shown signs of life, and if the resistance levels can be broken, it may continue to rise in value. The market is volatile, so traders should keep their position size reasonable. The negative correlation with the US dollar makes it likely that silver will benefit from a dollar selloff. Therefore, traders should keep a close eye on the dollar movements as they could indicate potential price changes in the silver market. It’s also worth noting that silver has a high correlation to what’s going on with gold, so pay attention to silvers bigger brother to give you a bit of an idea as to the overall directionality of the market. With that being said, silver does tend to be quite a bit more dangerous.

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