#GOLD,#SP500 Index,#NASDAQ100 Index : Weekly Forecast with me telegram: @claramellor (19-25 February 2023)

Gold

Gold markets have fallen rather hard during the week but did find a bit of support just above the 50-Week EMA. Ultimately, I think we are trying to turn things around, as it looks like the market overall is going to be heading for safety, which in and of itself might make gold attractive just as it makes the US dollar attractive. I still believe that the $1900 level is going to be difficult to get above.

S&P 500 Index

Last week again saw the S&P 500 Index fall, printing a small bearish doji inside candlestick which was also nearly an inside candlestick. This again signifies directional indecision, although the chart pattern here is a flag which is usually seen as bullish.

The daily price chart still shows a valid golden cross (or bull cross), where the 50-day MA crosses over the 200-day MA, valid since Thursday the week before last. Such a cross historically indicates the beginning of a major bull move, so it could be a great long-term buy signal.

A key feature is the support level shown in the price chart below which is just above the very large round number at 4000. A daily close below 4000 could be taken as a bearish sign if it happens, and if the price trades well below 3900 that would suggest, based on historical data, that a bull market is not going to take off any time soon.

I am not sure whether the Index is likely to rise or fall over the coming week. On the bullish side, we have seen firmer upwards movement over recent weeks indicating a more bullish market. However, we also see higher rate expectations and rising US treasury yields which tend to indicate flat or falling stock markets ahead.

NASDAQ 100 Index

Last week saw the NASDAQ 100 Index print a bearish inside candlestick, as the price again failed to make a bullish breakout beyond the key resistance level at 12820.

It is worth noting that while the NASDAQ is very positively correlated with the wider S&P 500 Index, the NASDAQ is not showing a golden cross, unlike the S&P 500, and is being held by an obvious resistance level. This suggests that the NASDAQ is looking relatively weak, so a bullish play should use the S&P 500 Index as a more appropriate vehicle. If you think the US stock market is about to break down and you want to trade short, the NASDAQ is likely to be a better bet, following a daily close below the 12200 level.

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