Pairs in Focus This Week – #USDCHF,#USDCAD,#BTCUSD,#NASDAQ100,#USDJPY (24-30 Sept 2023)

USD/CHF

The US dollar has rallied rather significantly against the Swiss franc during the trading week to break well above the 0.90 level. We are now facing the 50-week EMA and an area that has been resistant more than once. I think given enough time, we will probably get a bit of a pullback, but the buyers will return in order to break out to the upside over the longer term. A short-term pullback should be thought of as a potential buying opportunity in this environment. Interest rate differentials will continue to favor the US dollar, especially as the Swiss National Bank decided to hold rates flat this past week.

USD/CAD

Despite the fact that oil has been massively bullish as of late, the Canadian dollar has seen itself give up quite a bit of strength against the US dollar this past week. That being said, this is a market that continues to see a lot of volatility is the 1.33 level underneath and the 50-Week EMA both offer potential support. Just above, we have the 1.38 level offering significant resistance, and I think we continue to go back and forth in this overall consolidation region.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin rallied initially for the week but gave back the gains as it looks like crypto is yet again in the deserted wasteland of financial markets. Quite frankly, there is no real strength at this point in time, so I think we will continue to go sideways. That being said, I think the $26,000 level continues to be supported, and if we break down below there it could open up a move down to the $25,000 level. On a break above the top of the weekly candlestick, we could see a move toward the $30,000 level.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ 100 fell hard during the course of the week, slamming into a major support level at the 14,600 level. All things being equal, if we break down below there, then the market is likely to get looking to the 13,750 level. The fact that we are closing at the very bottom of the candlestick also suggests that there is probably some potential follow-through here, and it’s worth noting that central banks around the world suddenly have stopped raising rates, which is not a good sign for the underlying economy. Because of this, I think we probably have another week or two of negativity.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair printed a bullish candlestick which was close to being a pin bar, but not quite. We saw a relatively small range over the week, but the price made the highest weekly close seen in almost an entire year. The price also closed quite near its high, which is another bullish sign. However, the low volatility does suggest that this bullish movement might be running out of momentum.

I still see this currency pair as a long-term buy due to the very loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, as well the long-term downwards trend in the Yen. However, the Bank of Japan and the Japanese government have started to make comments recently which tend to trigger sudden rises in the Yen, and there is a sense that the Japanese authorities will look to intervene if the Yen continues to weaken much further. This and the low volatility might make things a bit risky for bulls, but there are good fundamental and technical reasons to look for long trades in this currency pair in the meantime.

It is also true that the big round number at ¥150 produced a strong bearish reversal the last time it was reached – it could do so again.

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