#USDCHF Forex Signal: Dollar Tests 200 Day EMA Against Franc (18 March 2024)

Potential signals: I believe at this point in time the US dollar is getting ready to break out against the Swiss franc. On a daily close above the 0.89 level, I am a buyer with a stoploss at the 0.88 level. My target would be a longer-term one, with parity being the ultimate prize.

• The US dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday, as we are now testing the 200 day EMA.

The 200 day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to, and it is of course an area that the technical traders out there will pay close attention to as well. Ultimately, if we can break above there, then we could go looking to the 0.89 level, which is an area that has offered a significant amount of resistance previously. If we can break above there, then I think the US dollar is free to go much higher.

Swiss National Bank

Keep in mind that the Swiss National Bank is likely to continue to look at the monetary policy coming out of Switzerland as needing to be loosened, as the Swiss franc has gotten far too strong. In fact, the SNB might be one of the first central banks in the world to start cutting rates as far as the major economies are concerned. If that’s the case, then the Swiss franc will of course continue to get beaten up on. This is especially true against the US dollar, which although the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates later this year, they are nowhere near being as aggressive as the Swiss will more likely than not be.

You can also take a look around the world and see the Swiss denominated pears continue to see a lot of upward pressure. All things being equal, this is a market that I do think is in the midst of trying to turn things around for a bigger move, and therefore think you’ve got a situation where a lot of people are going to be jumping into the trade over the longer term.

All things being equal, if we fall below the 0.87 level, then it is likely that we could see more of a selloff. At that point, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of panic, and perhaps a run toward the Swiss franc and some type of safety trade. I don’t see that happening very easily, but ultimately it is something that you need to keep in the back of your mind.

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USDCHF Puts 2024 Uptrend in Test (8 March 2024)

• USDCHF consolidates its 2024 uptrend
• Short-term bias weakens, but a rebound is still possible

USDCHF topped twice around February’s high of 0.8884 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), increasing fears that the 2024 upleg might have peaked, especially after the tick below the nearby 0.8780 support region on Thursday.

However, the ascending trendline from December’s low is still intact and is currently being examined at 0.8765, with the possibility that January’s high at 0.8727 could also mitigate pressures. The bearish wave could gain momentum if the latter is breached, causing the price to approach the 0.8680 constraining zone. This zone represents the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October-December downleg. A steeper decline could head for the 23.6% Fibonacci level of 0.8545.

The above bearish scenario is backed by the technical indicators, as the RSI is poised to fall below 50 and the MACD is consistently below its signal line. The stochastic oscillator is also maintaining its negative trajectory above its 20 oversold level.

On the upside, the pair will have to pierce through the 0.8810-0.8855 region, which includes the long-term resistance trendline from November 2011, in order to re-challenge the double-top region and the 61.8% Fibonacci of 0.8895. A successful penetration higher could bolster buying appetite towards the 0.8970 barrier and then up to the 78.6% Fibonacci bar of 0.9050.

In short, the uptrend of USDCHF in 2024 has plateaued, but the downside risks may remain balanced as long as the price stays above 0.8730.

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TODAY'S #GBPJPY,#EURJPY,#USDCHF RETURN💰💵made by our clients with our Technical & Fundamental research signals📊💯Join us now👇1 March 2024

 1MARCH 2024 :

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#USDCHF : US #Dollar Continues to Bounce About Against the Franc (16 Feb 2024)

The US dollar weakens against the Swiss franc. Traders eye buying opportunities on dips. Potential trend reversal underway. Swiss National Bank may favor weaker franc. Support at 0.87 level, watch EUR/CHF for indicators.

• The US dollar has fallen in early trading on Thursday against the Swiss franc as the 200 day EMA has offered significant resistance.
• At this point, I think we've got a scenario where traders will be looking to buy on dips and I do think that we are in the process of perhaps trying to change the overall trend.
• One thing is for sure, the Swiss National Bank will not be arguing with that move because they do not like the idea of a Swiss franc that is far too strong.

That being said, they typically watch the value of the Swiss franc against the euro and not necessarily the dollar, but they are all interconnected. Underneath, I see the 0.87 level as a major support level with a 50 day EMA curling towards it. However, always watch that EUR/CHF pair as an indicator for the Franc, and any potential intervention by the Swiss National Bank – which has historically been much quicker to get involved than most other central banks around the world.

So, I think that is where you will determine whether or not there's any chance of a longer term rally. A breakdown below the 0.87 level would simply continue the massive negativity that we have seen. If we can take out the high of the Wednesday session, that would be very strong and could send the US dollar reaching towards the 0.90 level against the Swiss franc.

Anything Above…

Anything above there then I think brings in quite a bit of FOMO trading as traders will be looking to take advantage of that momentum. Keep in mind that both of these are considered to be safety currencies, so that of course will have its own effect as there are plenty of geopolitical concerns. However, the one big problem Switzerland has is that 85% of its exports head to the EU and the EU is heading into a recession. So that might be why the US dollar is favored at the moment. Either way, you do get paid to hang on to this pair via swap so that is also something worth paying attention to but I think we are going to be very choppy even if we were to go much higher.

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Weekly #Forex Forecast : #SP500,#USDJPY,#BTCUSD,#USDCHF,#AUDUSD (22-26 Jan 2024)

S&P 500 rebounds towards 5000; USD/JPY rises past ¥147.33; WTI eyes $75 resistance; AUD/USD tests 0.65; USD/CHF nears 0.87; Bitcoin at $40,000; Gold at $2000; Nikkei strong.

SP 500

The S&P 500 initially pulled back during the course of the trading week to reach down toward the 4700 level. The 4700 level is an area that has been important multiple times. All things being equal, the market has turned around to show signs of life, and it does look like we will eventually break out. Short-term pullbacks are buying opportunities, and I think that given enough time that we could go looking toward the 4900 level, followed by the 5000 level.

USDJPY

The US dollar has rallied rather significantly during the course of the trading week to break above the ¥147.33 level, and therefore it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of upward pressure. All things being equal, if we do see a short-term pullback, there will be plenty of people willing to jump into the market and take advantage of value. The size of the candlestick does suggest that we are going to continue to see buyers, but I would also look for some type of value to take advantage of.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar has fallen significantly during the course of the trading week to test the 0.65 level. The 0.65 level is an area that previously has been support and resistance both. Because of this, I think this is a market that looks as if we are eventually going to turn around and show signs of life. The 0.67 level above will be the target, which was a major area of interest previously. If we can break above there, then the market is likely to look into the 0.69 level above, which is also an area where the 200-Week EMA is going to show up.

USD/CHF

The US dollar has exploded to the upside against the Swiss franc as we are closing out the week near the 0.87 level. The 0.87 level is an area where the market is going to continue to see a lot of trouble, but if we can break above there the next target would be the 0.88 level. If we were to break above there, then the US dollar could go looking to the 0.90 level above. On the other hand, if we do see some signs of exhaustion, this could be the top of the recovery. I think the next candlestick is going to be crucial for this pair.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin initially tried to rally during the course of the week, only to turn around and show signs of weakness. The market is sitting on top of the $40,000 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. If we break down below there, then the market could go down to the $38,000 level. All things being equal, I do believe the Bitcoin is going to continue to see a lot of bullish pressure, but it’s probably going to be a situation where value is something that traders will continue to look toward, but now that we have had the Bitcoin ETF announced, we are looking for the next catalyst to make this market go higher.

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Weekly Trading Support and Resistance – #USDJPY,#USDCHF (30-3 Nov 2023)

This week I will begin with my monthly and weekly Forex forecast of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of my forecast is based upon my research of the past 20 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:

• Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 6 months.
• Trading against very strong weekly counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
• Carry Trade: Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.

Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:

Monthly Forecast October 2023

For the month of October, I forecasted that the USD/JPY currency pair would gain in value.

The result so far is as follows:

Weekly Forecast 29th October 2023

Last week, I gave no weekly forecast, as there were no strong counter-trend price movements.

This week, I again have no forecast.

Directional volatility in the Forex market decreased last week with 22% of the most important currency pairs fluctuating over the week by more than 1%. Volatility is likely to increase over the coming week, due mostly to the scheduled FOMC meeting, and if the war in the Middle East widens, it will extend even further.

Last week was dominated by relative strength in the US Dollar, and relative weakness in the Canadian Dollar.

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

I teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be monitored on the more popular currency pairs this week.

Let us see how trading two of these key pairs last week off key support and resistance levels could have worked out:

USD/JPY

I had expected the level at ¥149.46 might act as support in the USD/JPY currency pair last week, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “role reversal” levels can work well. The H1 price chart below shows how the price rejected this level right at the start of last Tuesday’s London session (which can be a great time to enter trades in major currency pairs like this one) with a bullish pin bar, marked by the up arrow in the price chart below signaling the timing of this bullish rejection. This trade was very profitable, giving a maximum reward to risk ratio of more than 6 to 1 based upon the size of the entry candlestick.

USD/CHF

I had expected the level at $0.8898 might act as support in the USD/CHF currency pair last week, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “role reversal” levels can work well. The H1 price chart below shows how the price rejected this level right at the start of last Tuesday’s London session (which can be a great time to enter trades in major currency pairs like this one) with a large bullish engulfing bar, marked by the up arrow in the price chart below signaling the timing of this bullish rejection. This trade was profitable, giving a maximum reward to risk ratio of about 3 to 1 based upon the size of the entry candlestick.

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#USDCHF Forecast: Rallies Against Swiss Franc Again: 27 OCT 2023

I do expect a lot of choppy and noisy behavior, but it’s worth noting that we had recently rallied from an extreme low near the 0.8650 level, which was the bottom of the overall consolidation area on the monthly chart, showing just how low we had gotten.

• The USD/CHF has broken above the 50-day EMA against the Swiss franc during the training session on Thursday, as it looks like we are threatening the 0.90 level.
• The 200-day EMA sets about and is more likely than not going to be the next target.
• It’s also worth noting that we are getting awfully close to wiping out a very negative candlestick from last week, and therefore if we break above the 0.90 level, that would show a significant turnaround in momentum.

Eventually, We Go to the Upside

I do expect a lot of choppy and noisy behavior, but it’s worth noting that we had recently rallied from an extreme low near the 0.8650 level, which was the bottom of the overall consolidation area on the monthly chart, showing just how low we had gotten. At this point, we can break above that double top, then it’s likely that we go looking to the 0.95 level next.

In general, this is a situation where you see a lot of volatility, which I think will be the same as most currency pairs. If we do break down below the 0.89 level, it would send the US dollar much lower against the Swiss franc, showing signs of a continuation of the recent selloff, but with the geopolitical concerns that we have around the world, it does make a certain amount of sense that both of these currencies will be attractive, but with that interest rate differential favoring the US dollar, you would have to think that eventually, we go to the upside.

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#USDCHF Forecast: Gives Up Early Gains Against Swiss franc (24 OCT 2023)

The Federal Reserve remains very tight with its monetary policy and with GDP numbers coming out this week, it does make a certain amount of sense that the market might be a rather volatile turn of events waiting to happen.

• The USD/CHF initially tried to rally on Monday but gave back gains as we approach the 50-Day EMA.
• That of course is an area that a lot of people would be paying close attention to, and the fact that we turned around for a bit of it inverted hammer suggests that we are ready to go lower.
• With this, I am a bit cautious, but I also recognize that the Swiss franc of course makes quite a bit of sense considering that it is a “safety currency”, despite the fact that the US dollar is as well.

We’ll Eventually Find Value Hunters

On the other hand, if we turn around a break above the 200-Day EMA, presently near the 0.9050 level, then the market could turn around and go racing toward the highs again. All things being equal, this is a market that I think eventually goes looking to the 0.93 level, the 0.95 level, and so on. I do think that the Swiss bank will eventually lose it since of humor, but right now is nowhere near intervening as it has been raising interest rates at the same time.

The Federal Reserve remains very tight with its monetary policy and with GDP numbers coming out this week, it does make a certain amount of sense that the market might be a rather volatile turn of events waiting to happen. All things being equal, this is a situation where we will eventually find value hunters. The 0.88 level underneath his massive support as well, so that might be an area where you start to find value hunters. Regardless, I don’t necessarily want to short this market quite yet, I recognize that there are a lot of buyers underneath.

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Premium #GOLD,#USDCHF,#EURUSD and #GBPJPY Forecast: 21 OCT 2023

 

GOLD:

#EURUSD

#GBPJPY

#USDCHF

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#USDCHF: Two-Year Yield Surges as Risks Grow to #US Outlook (18 OCT 2023)

• Republican Jim Jordan does not have enough votes to be elected House speaker in the first round of floor voting.
• Risk aversion was the early trade as hot data fueled Fed rate hike bets
• Investors await key Chinese data that could alleviate global growth concerns

USD/CHF been a tough trade over the last week as geopolitical concerns initially sent safe haven flows towards the franc, but resilient economic data prevented risk aversion from running wild. The movement with Treasury yields are driving concerns that financial conditions are about to have a crippling impact on the economy. The 5-year yield rose to the highest levels since 2007. The 2-year Treasury yield also surged above the 5.22%, which is just below the current Fed’s Target range of 5.25%-5.50% .

The USD/CHF daily chart is showing prices tentatively breaking below the 200-day SMA and key support from the bullish trendline that has been in place since August. Wall Street has had a strong start to earnings season, but it seems traders are growing confident that a slowdown is here given how high rates are going. The risks to the US outlook are growing as the risk of more Fed rate hikes remains on the table and as Treasury market liquidity concerns remain a key focal point. If bearish momentum resumes, downside could the 0.8950 region.

The rest of the week could see risk appetite attempt a comeback if Chinese data impresses. China will have the release of Q3 GDP and September activity data that could show their economic recovery is gaining traction. Too much Fed speak is on the calendar but traders will focus on Thursday’s appearance by Fed Chair Powell. The dollar may fall if he supports the stance that more time is needed to decide if more tightening is needed to tame inflation.

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Pairs in Focus This Week – #USDCHF,#USDCAD,#BTCUSD,#NASDAQ100,#USDJPY (24-30 Sept 2023)

USD/CHF

The US dollar has rallied rather significantly against the Swiss franc during the trading week to break well above the 0.90 level. We are now facing the 50-week EMA and an area that has been resistant more than once. I think given enough time, we will probably get a bit of a pullback, but the buyers will return in order to break out to the upside over the longer term. A short-term pullback should be thought of as a potential buying opportunity in this environment. Interest rate differentials will continue to favor the US dollar, especially as the Swiss National Bank decided to hold rates flat this past week.

USD/CAD

Despite the fact that oil has been massively bullish as of late, the Canadian dollar has seen itself give up quite a bit of strength against the US dollar this past week. That being said, this is a market that continues to see a lot of volatility is the 1.33 level underneath and the 50-Week EMA both offer potential support. Just above, we have the 1.38 level offering significant resistance, and I think we continue to go back and forth in this overall consolidation region.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin rallied initially for the week but gave back the gains as it looks like crypto is yet again in the deserted wasteland of financial markets. Quite frankly, there is no real strength at this point in time, so I think we will continue to go sideways. That being said, I think the $26,000 level continues to be supported, and if we break down below there it could open up a move down to the $25,000 level. On a break above the top of the weekly candlestick, we could see a move toward the $30,000 level.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ 100 fell hard during the course of the week, slamming into a major support level at the 14,600 level. All things being equal, if we break down below there, then the market is likely to get looking to the 13,750 level. The fact that we are closing at the very bottom of the candlestick also suggests that there is probably some potential follow-through here, and it’s worth noting that central banks around the world suddenly have stopped raising rates, which is not a good sign for the underlying economy. Because of this, I think we probably have another week or two of negativity.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair printed a bullish candlestick which was close to being a pin bar, but not quite. We saw a relatively small range over the week, but the price made the highest weekly close seen in almost an entire year. The price also closed quite near its high, which is another bullish sign. However, the low volatility does suggest that this bullish movement might be running out of momentum.

I still see this currency pair as a long-term buy due to the very loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, as well the long-term downwards trend in the Yen. However, the Bank of Japan and the Japanese government have started to make comments recently which tend to trigger sudden rises in the Yen, and there is a sense that the Japanese authorities will look to intervene if the Yen continues to weaken much further. This and the low volatility might make things a bit risky for bulls, but there are good fundamental and technical reasons to look for long trades in this currency pair in the meantime.

It is also true that the big round number at ¥150 produced a strong bearish reversal the last time it was reached – it could do so again.

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Premium #GBPJPY and #USDCHF Forecast: 18 September 2023

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