Monthly Forecast : #NASDAQ100 & #SP500 (May 2024)

NASDAQ 100 Monthly Forecast: May 2024

• The NASDAQ 100 has been all over the place during the month of April, which is not a huge surprise considering that there are a lot of uncertainties around the world.
• After all, the NASDAQ 100 is an index that is highly sensitive to risk appetite, as it is some of the higher growth companies.
• Furthermore, the month of April has seen earning season kickoff at the end of it, so that obviously has a major influence on what happens in the NASDAQ 100 as well.

The 17,000 level has proven itself to be important in this market, and therefore I think you need to look at it through the prism of a “floor in the market” that we are dealing with. If the market were to break down below the 17,000 level, then it’s possible that we could drop another 1000 points down to the 16,000 level. While I don’t necessarily have that as a target going forward, I do recognize that it is something important to keep in the back of your mind.

At this point in time, I believe that the 18,500 level is an area that traders will continue to look to as a potential target, as it was significant resistance previously. With that being the case, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, but I think every time we pull back, it’s very likely that buyers will come in and try to pick up a little bit of value.

One thing is for sure, it seems like the Wall Street traders out there continue to find reasons to buy stocks regardless. That being said, I think every dip will more likely than not capture a certain amount of attention, and therefore I think given enough time we could really start to see this market take off. Over the longer term, I think you continue to see a lot of people jumping into this market, but there may be a lot of pain between now and whenever we find momentum. Longer-term, it would not surprise me at all to see the NASDAQ 100 go looking to the 20,000 level, but it may not happen during the month of May as we are probably going to spend most of her time digesting some of the massive gains that we had seen previously.

S&P 500 Monthly Forecast: May 2024

• The S&P 500 has been very noisy for the month of April, which should not be a huge surprise considering that we have seen so much in the way of upward momentum.
• Sooner or later, we had to consolidate, and therefore work off some of the excess froth that had been built up in the markets.
• I think given enough time, this is a market that will eventually take off to the upside again, and as we are going through earnings season, it does make a certain amount of sense the volatility would be part of the market anyway.

At this point, I have to assume that the S&P 500 remains more or less a “buy on the dips” market, as we have seen so much in the way of upward pressure of the longer term, and therefore a lot of traders will be out there wishing that they had gotten involved that in earlier level. However, they did get a little bit of an opportunity to pick up “cheap contracts” in this market, therefore I think that’s part of what we are seeing happen right now. Underneath, we have the 5000 level that will almost certainly offer a significant amount of support, and then after that we have the 4900 level. Anything below the 4900 level could open up a major correction.

All things being equal, this is a market that will continue to see a lot of volatility during this time of year, but I also believe that we have a situation where plenty of value hunters are willing to get involved. If we can break above the 5300 level, then it’s likely that the S&P 500 will go looking to the 5500 level. Underneath, if we were to break down then the 50-We EMA will be right around the 4700 level, and it could be a bit of support as well. That being said, at the end of the month of April, it looks like the buyers are starting the flexor muscles again, so I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we continue to go higher. Ultimately, I think you have a noisy market, but you still have to look at this through the prism of a market that is still bullish from a long-term perspective.

SXSZCXZ