Monthly Forecast : #NASDAQ100 & #SP500 (May 2024)

NASDAQ 100 Monthly Forecast: May 2024

• The NASDAQ 100 has been all over the place during the month of April, which is not a huge surprise considering that there are a lot of uncertainties around the world.
• After all, the NASDAQ 100 is an index that is highly sensitive to risk appetite, as it is some of the higher growth companies.
• Furthermore, the month of April has seen earning season kickoff at the end of it, so that obviously has a major influence on what happens in the NASDAQ 100 as well.

The 17,000 level has proven itself to be important in this market, and therefore I think you need to look at it through the prism of a “floor in the market” that we are dealing with. If the market were to break down below the 17,000 level, then it’s possible that we could drop another 1000 points down to the 16,000 level. While I don’t necessarily have that as a target going forward, I do recognize that it is something important to keep in the back of your mind.

At this point in time, I believe that the 18,500 level is an area that traders will continue to look to as a potential target, as it was significant resistance previously. With that being the case, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, but I think every time we pull back, it’s very likely that buyers will come in and try to pick up a little bit of value.

One thing is for sure, it seems like the Wall Street traders out there continue to find reasons to buy stocks regardless. That being said, I think every dip will more likely than not capture a certain amount of attention, and therefore I think given enough time we could really start to see this market take off. Over the longer term, I think you continue to see a lot of people jumping into this market, but there may be a lot of pain between now and whenever we find momentum. Longer-term, it would not surprise me at all to see the NASDAQ 100 go looking to the 20,000 level, but it may not happen during the month of May as we are probably going to spend most of her time digesting some of the massive gains that we had seen previously.

S&P 500 Monthly Forecast: May 2024

• The S&P 500 has been very noisy for the month of April, which should not be a huge surprise considering that we have seen so much in the way of upward momentum.
• Sooner or later, we had to consolidate, and therefore work off some of the excess froth that had been built up in the markets.
• I think given enough time, this is a market that will eventually take off to the upside again, and as we are going through earnings season, it does make a certain amount of sense the volatility would be part of the market anyway.

At this point, I have to assume that the S&P 500 remains more or less a “buy on the dips” market, as we have seen so much in the way of upward pressure of the longer term, and therefore a lot of traders will be out there wishing that they had gotten involved that in earlier level. However, they did get a little bit of an opportunity to pick up “cheap contracts” in this market, therefore I think that’s part of what we are seeing happen right now. Underneath, we have the 5000 level that will almost certainly offer a significant amount of support, and then after that we have the 4900 level. Anything below the 4900 level could open up a major correction.

All things being equal, this is a market that will continue to see a lot of volatility during this time of year, but I also believe that we have a situation where plenty of value hunters are willing to get involved. If we can break above the 5300 level, then it’s likely that the S&P 500 will go looking to the 5500 level. Underneath, if we were to break down then the 50-We EMA will be right around the 4700 level, and it could be a bit of support as well. That being said, at the end of the month of April, it looks like the buyers are starting the flexor muscles again, so I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we continue to go higher. Ultimately, I think you have a noisy market, but you still have to look at this through the prism of a market that is still bullish from a long-term perspective.

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#Indices Forecast: #SP500,#DAX,#NASDAQ100 (10 April 2024)

NASDAQ Forecast: Looks Strong Ahead of CPI

• You can see that we did pull back just a bit during the early hours on Tuesday, but it looks like Wall Street is trying to power higher.
• Keep in mind that the CPI numbers come out on Wednesday and that of course will have a certain amount of influence on this market, but I think given enough time, we do break higher.

The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates later in the year and it does seem like traders on Wall Street are betting on that. It is reflected in the stock market. I think in the short term though, we need to look at the $17,775 level underneath as a significant support level, while the $18,500 level above is a significant resistance barrier.

We may bounce around in this area, but obviously CPI numbers could cause some type of major shift at the moment. I think it's a market that's trying to work through a lot of excess froth and it does make a certain amount of sense that we consolidate for a while. After all, we've been in a strong uptrend for several months now.

Potential Technical Support

The 50 day EMA sits underneath it and continues to offer support. So therefore, I think a lot of traders will look at that as a potential bounce just waiting to happen as well. But either way, I have no interest in shorting this market. I think it is probably only a matter of time before we continue to see buyers on dips and the upcoming earnings season could be one of the major drivers.

Earnings season has been a bit of a pleasant surprise for a while on Wall Street, and I think we may continue to see more of that. Regardless, earnings will only have so much of an effect as it seems like most people out there are more or less focused on what the Federal Reserve may do, so it’s possible that “bad news is good news” fairly soon as traders will continue to hope for loose monetary policy.

S&P 500 Forecast: Wall Street Waits for CPI as SP 500 Stagnates

• The S&P 500 was rather quiet during the trading session on Tuesday as we wait for the Consumer Price Index figures.
• Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to be very noisy, but I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we start to pick up momentum in the upward direction yet again.
• After all, this is a market that is focusing almost solely on the idea of cheap money.

We do have earnings season coming and that of course has a major influence on what could happen in the short term, but longer term it’s going to be about interest rates as per usual. Currently, it looks like the Federal Reserve will be cutting by the end of the year, but it may be as little as to interest rate cuts now. That being said, Wall Street still has plenty of hope for more, so I think you will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior in the short term.

Consumer Price Index

In the short term, traders will be paying close attention to the Consumer Price Index numbers coming out on Wednesday, because it gives us an idea as to what inflation is doing in the United States, which directly influences what the Federal Reserve will not going. As long as inflation remains stubbornly high, the amount of interest rate cuts will continue to dwindle. Remember, there was a point in time where Wall Street anticipated 6 interest rate cuts between now and the end of the year. We are now favoring the idea of 2 or 3.

If we do rally from here, the 5300 level is an area that a lot of people will be paying attention to as it has shown itself to be massive resistance previously. If we can break above there, then the market is likely to continue to go to the 5500 level. If we break down from here, the 5100 level should be a significant amount of support with the 50-Day EMA sitting just below it is offering support as well. Either way, I don’t really have any interest in trying to short this market, because it has been far too relentless. Worst case scenario, I suspect that we go sideways.

DAX Forecast: Pulls Back during Tuesday’s Session

• The DAX fell during early trading on Tuesday, as we continue to see a little bit of a pullback in Germany.
• This does make a significant amount of sense though, due to the fact that the market had gotten far ahead of itself. We are currently sitting just above the 23.6 Fibonacci level of the latest leg higher, suggesting that perhaps technical analysis following traders may be looking for a deeper correction.
• In that scenario, we could be looking at a move down to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which currently sits near the €17,725 level.

Germany is The Bellwether

Germany is the bellwether when it comes to the European Union, so you should be watching this index regardless of what you are trading. This is because so many instruments will focus on Europe, be it indices like the CAC, MIB, AMX, etc., and of course you have to pay close attention to what it could do with the euro. We have an interest rate decision next week coming out of the European Central Bank, and perhaps some of this is to simply traders out there willing to take profit ahead of that massive decision.

A lot of traders will be waiting to see whether or not the ECB will do something to lift asset prices, as they would liquefy markets. If they do not, then it’s possible this market could fall deeper as Germany is already in the recession. That being said, expect a lot of noisy behavior over the next couple of days but I do suspect that the DAX remains a market that you are looking to buy dips in, as it is a very strong uptrend and there’s no reason to think that it’s going to change anytime soon.

With all of this being said, I do think that the market is finally starting to show some cracks, which might give you a nice opportunity to pick up a little bit of value here. Nonetheless, I also recognize that you need to be very cautious with your position sizing, as you could find yourself in a bad trade very quickly if you get to over levered and we start to see a deep correction.

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#NASDAQ Futures Elliott Wave Analysis: (NQ_F) Is Giving Us a Bounce from the Buying Zone (4 April 2024)

Hello fellow traders. As our members know , NASDAQ has recently given us plenty of positive buying setups. In this article we’re going to present Elliott Wave charts of NQ_F published in the members area of the website. NASDAQ made a clear 3 waves pull back that has unfolded as Elliott Wave Double Three pattern. It made clear 3 waves down from the February 23rd peak and completed correction right at the Equal Legs zone ( Blue Box Area) . In further text we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave pattern and trading setup.

NASDAQ Elliott Wave 1 Hour Asia Chart 04.02.2024

The current view indicates that the intraday pullback is still in progress. We assume that the correction is unfolding as an Elliott Wave Double Three pattern with wxy red labeling. The price structure remains incomplete at the moment, suggesting further downside towards the 18322-18138.2 Blue Box Buying Zone. We don’t recommend selling NASDAQ; instead, we prefer positioning ourselves on the long side from the Blue Box area. Once NQ_F reaches our designated buying zone, we expect an influx of buyers, potentially resulting in a rally towards new highs or a 3-wave bounce.

Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.

Quick reminder on how to trade our charts :

Red bearish stamp+ blue box = Selling Setup
Green bullish stamp+ blue box = Buying Setup
Charts with Black stamps are not tradable.

NASDAQ Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 04.02.2024

The futures have experienced a drop and have reached our buying zone, the Blue Box: 18322-18138.2. We are entering long positions within the Blue Box against the marked invalidation level. As the main trend is bullish, we expect to see at least a 3-wave bounce from the Blue Box. As soon as the price hits the 50 fibs against the x red connector, we will make positions risk-free and set stop loss at breakeven. A break below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, 18138.2, would invalidate the trade.

NASDAQ Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 04.02.2024

The NASDAQ futures has found buyers as expected and is showing a very good reaction from the Blue Box Area. We count the pullback (ii) blue completed at the 17828 low. Consequently, any long positions should now be risk-free. We are anticipating a break of the (iii) blue peak to confirm that the next leg up is in progress.

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Monthly Forecast : #NASDAQ100 & #SP500 (April 2024)

NASDAQ 100 Monthly Forecast: April 2024

Post-choppy March, watch 17,775 support for direction. Potential grind higher amid summer quiet. Key strategy: buy dips, avoid shorting.

• The NASDAQ 100 has seen a very choppy month of March, but quite frankly we have shot straight up in the air so little bit of consolidation was exactly what the market needed.
• Whether or not that holds for the longer-term remains to be seen but I am watching the support level from the month, the 17,775 level, for signs of where we go next.
• As long as we can stay above that area, then I don’t think much has changed and quite frankly we may be looking at a market that is just trying to sort out where it goes next.

Ultimately, I do think that this market will go higher but we may need a little bit of a reset. That reset could take the form of a month or two of grinding, as we work off some of the excess froth. Furthermore, we are starting to get a little closer to the summer season, which typically is a bit quiet. Nonetheless, I still think that the market is very much the same market that we have been in for a while, meaning that you can either be on the sidelines and simply out of the market, or you are looking to buy dips. Shorting the NASDAQ 100 has been tantamount to blowing up your account on purpose every time you do it.

Look for Value

I think the only thing you can do on this index is to simply look for value as it occurs. Short-term pullbacks will come from time to time, and as long as you are not betting the entire account that you have on that pullback, you should be fine. There’s nothing wrong with building up a position over time, but quite frankly I think this is a market that has gotten so far ahead of itself that we could see a 10% correction. Dad 10% correction would be an excellent buying opportunity but I just don’t see anything on the chart right now that suggests we are about to have it. When I say that there could be a 10% correction, is just a simple statement that we had shot straight up in the air so rapidly.

SP 500 Monthly Forecast: April 2024

Bullish trend persists in well-defined channel. Potential for short-term pullbacks, but overall market likely to rise with rate cut expectations.

• Stock markets are essentially stuck in a feedback loop around the world, and the S&P 500 of course will be no different.
• The S&P 500 is the largest stock index in the world, and therefore it is worth paying close attention to what it’s doing.
• I do believe that we continue to see bullish behavior due to the fact that traders simply feed on momentum more than anything else.
• During the course of March, we have most certainly seen quite a bit of buying again, but it’s probably worth noting that we are just simply going up in a very rigidly defined channel.

At this point in time, I do think that the market could probably use a little bit of a pullback, and for what it is where we have recently seen a lot of noisy choppy volatility. This does suggest that perhaps we might get a short-term pullback, but I think at this point in time it’s obvious that the short-term pullbacks continue to get bought into. After all, the S&P 500 is not an equal weighted index, and of course the traders on Wall Street are all gung ho for the idea that the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates this year. If they do, that obviously could help stock markets in general, so I think this is about a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Keep It Simple

There’s no reason to overthink the entirety of the market right now. The S&P 500 is not equal weighted, so as long as the handful of stocks that everybody loves continues to attract inflows from retirement funds, pension funds, investment banks, etc., then it makes quite a bit of sense that the S&P 500 will be forced to go higher. Yes, the move was absolutely ridiculous, and I do think that a pullback is desperately needed. However, it does not matter what I think, what matters is what will happen.

At this point in time, I think it’s simply a matter of buying into the S&P 500 every time it pulls back significantly, because it does give you an opportunity to pick up a little bit of value. I see the 5100 level as a value level that I’d be very interested in, and of course I would be even more interested in the 5000 level. I have no interest in shorting this market and look at any significant selloff as a buying opportunity for longer-term investors.

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