#EURJPY Seeks Calmness After Roller Coaster Day (30 April 2024)

• EURJPY stabilizes after Japan-driven volatile session
• Bears wait for action below the 167.20 support area
• Eurozone’s flash CPI inflation due at 09:00 GMT

EURJPY rose rapidly to an almost 40-year high of 171.56 on Monday thanks to a suspected intervention from Japanese authorities. But the spike faded immediately, with the price diving to a low of 165.63 before closing the day near 167.54 in the aftermath.

Technically, the resistance line from June 2023, which led to the decline in November 2023, has once again hindered the aggressive bullish movement, increasing the likelihood of a downward reversal as both the RSI and stochastic oscillator have reached their peak in the overbought zone. Recall that the pair has been rising almost every single day since April 15. Hence, some stability would not be very surprising.

The broken January resistance line is assisting the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the December-April uptrend in buffering downside pressures near 167.20. If that floor cracks, the pair could slump towards its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 165.20 and perhaps test the 38.2% Fibonacci mark of 164.52 too. Then, the spotlight might fall on the 50-day SMA and the support trendline from February at 163.25, a break of which could see an extension towards the constraining ascending line from August 2020 at 161.38.

Alternatively, the bulls might strive to reach Friday’s closing price of 169.27. A successful outcome there could make the 170.00 psychological mark visible again, and if it’s easily broken, the pair could move towards the long-term resistance line at 171.60. The 175.00 round level could be the next target.

The possibility of EURJPY repeating Monday’s impressive rally is uncertain, but there could be ongoing upward pressures if the base at 167.20 holds.

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#EURJPY Forecast: #Euro Continues to Search for Support Again Slowly Japanese #Yen (2 April 2024)

Euro seeks support against JPY; interest rate differential favors Europe. EUR/JPY expected to rise, with BoJ's modest rate hike unlikely to impact long-term trend.

• The euro initially tried to rally a bid during the early hours on Monday, but then drifted a bit lower against the Japanese yen.
• That being said, I still believe that this market eventually goes higher, as we have such a huge interest rate differential between the 2 currencies.
• Granted, I don’t necessarily think that the market shoot straight up in the air, but I do think that it’s only a matter time before the buyers jump back in insert taken advantage of value.

The interest rate differential continues to favor Europe, but even then, you have to keep in mind that the ECB is likely to cut rates later this year. That being said, I still think the Japanese yen remains a bit of a punching bag for the currency markets, and therefore I’m looking for an opportunity to start buying this pair again. I need to see some type of short-term bounce to take advantage of, and then I will get long yet again.

Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan is of course in focus, due to the fact that the Japanese have recently raised interest rates. That being said, the interest rate is still just 0.1%, so I would not read too much into it being tighter down the road. In fact, they have since walked back the idea of raising interest rates to aggressively, so I think you probably have a situation where it’s only a matter of time before traders will continue to punish the Japanese in.

Underneath, we have the 50-Day EMA coming into the picture offering a bit of support, and I think at this point in time, it continues to act as a bit of a short-term trendline. I’m simply waiting for some type of short-term bounce to take advantage of so I can get on the “right side of the V” after that bounce, then you have a place from which to place your stop loss. Ultimately, the market I think will revisit the highs, and I do not think that we have seen the swing high for the longer term at this point in time. I have no interest in shorting this market.

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Weekly Trading Support & Resistance – #USDCAD,#EURJPY (5- 11 March 2023)

This week I will begin with my monthly and weekly Forex forecast of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of my forecast is based upon my research of the past 20 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:

• Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 6 months.
• Trading against very strong weekly counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
• Carry Trade: Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.

Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:

Monthly Forecast March 2023

I make no forecast for the month of March, as Forex markets are unsettled.

For the month of February, I forecasted that the EUR/USD currency pair would rise in value.

The final performance was:

Weekly Forecast 5th March 2023

Last week, I made no weekly forecast, as there were no unusually strong counter-trend price movements in the Forex market the previous week. The situation remains the same, so I again give no weekly forecast this week.

Directional volatility in the Forex market is likely to increase over the coming week.

Last week was dominated by relative strength in the Euro, and relative weakness in the US Dollar. However, the amounts were very low, so these statistics are not very meaningful.

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

I teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be monitored on the more popular currency pairs this week.

USD/CAD

I had expected the level at $1.3656 might act as resistance in the USD/CAD currency pair last week, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “role reversal” levels can work well. The H1 price chart below shows how the price rejected this level right at the start of Wednesday’s Tokyo session with a large engulfing candlestick, marked by the down arrow in the price chart below signaling the timing of this bearish rejection. This trade has been profitable so far, giving a maximum reward to risk ratio of more than 2 to 1 based upon the size of the entry candlestick structure.

EUR/JPY

I had expected the level at ¥145.51 might act as support in the EUR/JPY currency cross last week, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “role reversal” levels can work well. The H1 price chart below shows how the price rejected this level right at the end of last Thursday’s Tokyo session (typically a great time to enter trades in Forex currency crosses involving the Japanese Yen) with a small pin bar / inverted hammer candlestick, marked by the down arrow in the price chart below signaling the timing of this bearish rejection. This trade has been very profitable, achieving a maximum positive reward to risk ratio of more than 7 to 1 so far based upon the size of the entry candlestick.

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#EURJPY Eases after the Rally Towards 7½-Year High (13 SEPTEMBER 2022)

EURJPY skyrocketed to a fresh seven-and-a-half-year high of 145.65 on Monday’s sessions with the technical oscillator suggesting an overbought market.

The RSI indicator is turning lower near the 70 level, while the %K and the %D lines of the stochastic oscillator posted a bearish crossover, suggesting an extension to the downside in the short-term timeframe. However, the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) created a bullish cross and the price is still developing well above them and the uptrend line.

Should the price extend declines, the 142.35 support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 124.40 to 145.65 at 140.60 could be the next levels to have in mind. Below that, the focus could shift straight to the SMAs between 139.63-138.40. If the latter permits for further weakness, the next stop could be around the long-term ascending trend line and the 38.2% Fibonacci of 137.50.

On the other hand, a move back to the upside could retest the multi-year high at 145.65 before attention turns to 149.75, registered in December 2014.

Turning to the medium-term picture, the bullish outlook came back into play after the bridge of the previous highs. For a bull market though traders need to wait for a clear close above 145.65.

Overall, EURJPY holds a bullish profile both in the short and the medium-term.

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#EURJPY Still Consolidating Below the Downtrend Line (23 AUGUST 2022)

EURJPY is diving back below the near-term falling trend line and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 124.40 to 144.25 at 136.75. The neutral to bearish picture in the short-term looks to last for a while longer after prices failed to break above the descending line and the 138.40 resistance.

The negative bias in the near term is supported by the deterioration in the momentum indicators. The %K line of the stochastic oscillator has fallen sharply after the pullback from the overbought region and posted a bearish crossover with the %D line. The RSI is flatlining below the 50-neutral level, suggesting any upside correction will be weak.

If prices continue to head lower, support should come from the 134.90 barrier before tumbling to the 50.0% Fibonacci of 134.30 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 134.07. A drop below these lines would reinforce the bearish view and open the way towards the 132.60-133.40 support zone.

However, should an upside reversal take form, immediate resistance will likely come from the 38.2% Fibonacci of 136.75 ahead of the 40-day SMA at 138.40. A break higher could shift the bias to slightly bullish with the next resistance coming from the 23.6% Fibonacci of 139.55.

All in all, EURJPY has been neutral to bearish in the short-term timeframe and any moves beneath the 200-day SMA would endorse the bearish scenario.

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#EURJPY Steps on Familiar Support Zone; 20-SMA in Target (17 AUGUST 2022)

EURJPY stood firm again around the 135.00 support region on Tuesday, which triggered the preceding bullish wave, increasing hopes that the latest bearish correction has found a bottom.

The tough 20-day simple moving average (SMA), however, is still overhead, keeping downside risks alive at 137.20, while the 38.2% Fibonacci of the 124.38 – 144.26 upleg also seems a struggle to overcome today as it lies slightly lower at 136.67.

In other discouraging signs, the RSI and the MACD, although having pivoted northwards, remain within the negative area, with the former below its 50 neutral mark and the latter attached to its red signal line below zero.

Unless the bulls sustain their strength above 137.20, the price could flip back to test the 135.00 base. Failure to bounce here this time may initially see an extension towards the 50% Fibonacci of 134.32 and the 200-day SMA, and then a continuation towards the key constraining zone of 133.15 -132.70. Should selling pressures persist at this point, all eyes will turn to the channel’s lower boundary at 131.86.

In the bullish scenario, where the pair finally closes above the 20-day SMA, the first obstacle could pop up around 138.20. A decisive step higher may run until the channel’s surface and the 50-day SMA at 139.42, where the 23.6% Fibonacci is also positioned. Beyond that, the 140.00 psychological mark, which halted April’s upside sequence, could immediately block the way towards the 141.00 and 142.00 round levels.

Summarizing, EURJPY seems to have set the stage for its next upside reversal, though whether it will be successful may depend on the restrictive 20-day SMA.

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#EURJPY Bullish Correction Still at Risk (9 AUGUST 2022)

EURJPY has been in the green every single day since the plunge to an almost three-month low of 133.39 and the creation of a bullish hammer candlestick last week, rising gradually up to 137.91 on Monday.

The short bullish sequence, however, has not shifted the bias clearly on the positive side yet, as the RSI remains below its 50 neutral mark and the MACD is still trying to overcome its red signal line in the negative area.

The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) is currently viewed as the primary threat to the recovery at 138.20. If it successfully rejects the bulls, pressing the price below 137.00, the spotlight will shift back to the 135.00 support region, where the pair found a strong footing last week. Another violation at this point could retest the key constraining zone around 133.15 and the lower boundary of the bearish channel around 132.70.

In the event the pair climbs above the 20-day SMA, the bullish wave could pick up steam towards the 50-day SMA and the channel’s upper trendline at 140.00. A close above that wall would question the short-term bearish trajectory, though only a rally above the 141.00 and 142.00 psychological marks could clear the way towards the 7½-year high of 144.26.

Summarizing, despite the latest bullish correction, EURJPY has not entirely eliminated negative risks while trading within a downward-sloping channel. For that to happen the pair will need to cross above the 20-day SMA at 139.19 and then speed above the channel to upgrade the short-term outlook.

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#EURJPY Retreats Sharply, Eyeing 200-day SMA (2 AUGUST 2022)

EURJPY has been experiencing a decline in the last few daily sessions after its latest advance paused at the 142.30 region. Moreover, the price is currently trading below its lower Bollinger band and is battling with the crucial 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a violation of which could accelerate the downfall.

The short-term oscillators suggest that negative momentum is strengthening. Specifically, the MACD histogram is losing ground beneath both zero and its red signal line, while the RSI is approaching the 30-oversold area.

Should selling pressure intensify further, the 200-day SMA, currently at 133.60, could act as the first line of defence. Sliding beneath that floor, the price may descend towards the May low of 132.64 before it challenges the 131.60 barrier. Failing to halt there, the bears could then aim for 127.45.

To the upside, if buyers re-emerge and reverse the drop, initial resistance could be encountered at the inside swing low of 136.85. Breaching this ceiling, the spotlight could then turn to the 140.00 psychological mark before the focus shifts to the recent reversal point of 142.30. A jump above the latter might set the stage for the 7½-year high of 144.27.

Overall, EURJPY’s outlook has turned bearish both in the short and medium term, while a dive beneath the 200-day SMA could open the door for a sustained downtrend.

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#EURJPY Price: In Case Bulls Defend $136 Level, Price May Rise (29 JULY 2022)

 

EURJPY Price Analysis – July 29

In case the bears are able to penetrate the support level of $136, price may decrease to $135 and $134 levels. When the bulls increase their pressure, it may increase the price to break up $137 level in which it may extend to $138 and $139 price levels

EURJPY Market

Key Levels:

Resistance levels: $137, $138, $139

Support levels: $136, $135, $134

EURJPY Long-term Trend: Bearish

EURJPY is bearish on the long-term outlook. The currency pair was bullish last week and the price increased to $142 level. The bears prevailed on July 21 as the support level of $139 was penetrated downside and the price decline to test $138 price level. Bulls reacted against this price declination and price pulled back and retested $139 level. On July 28, Sellers gained enough momentum and push the price below $137.

The price is trading below the fast moving average (9 day EMA) and the slow moving average (21 day EMA). EURJPY has crossed the two EMAs downside, which confirms that the price is on the bearish movement. In case the bears are able to penetrate the support level of $136, price may decrease to $135 and $134 levels. When the bulls increase their pressure, it may increase the price to break up $137 level in which it may extend to $138 and $139 price levels. However, the relative strength index period 14 is at 37 levels pointing down which indicate sell signal.

EURJPY medium-term Trend: Bearish

EURJPY is on the bearish movement on 4-hour chart. Last week, EURJPY price was under the control of bulls’ momentum. The resistance level of $142 opposed the movement of the bulls. The price falls and tested the support level of $138. Since then, price has been decreasing towards $136 level.

EURJPY is currently trading below the 9 periods EMA and 21 periods EMA as an indication of bearish market. However, the relative strength index period 14 is at 32 levels with the signal line pointing down to indicate sell signal.

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#EURJPY Price: $137 Support Level Holds, Pullback Envisaged (15 JULY 2022)

 

EURJPY Price Analysis – July 15

Further increase in the bulls’ pressure may place the price above the $139 level, which may incline the price to $140 and $141 levels. When there is an increase in the bears’ pressure, the support level of $137 may be broken downside and the bearish momentum may extend to $136 and $135 price level.

Key Levels:

Resistance levels: $139, $140, $141

Support levels: $137, $136, $135

EURJPY Long-term Trend: Bullish

EURJPY is bullish on the long-term outlook. The bears were in control of the market last week. The double top chart pattern formed at the resistance level of $144 is responsible for the fallen of EURJPY price. The price broke down the former support level of $142, $140 and $138. The support level of $137 is tested and penetrated but the bears have no enough momentum to sustain the breakout. It pulled back. The support level of $137 holds and could not be broken downside, the price is currently pulling back at the moment.

The fast moving average (9 day EMA) remains below the slow moving average (21 day EMA) and the price is trading between the two EMAs which indicate that the bears’ momentum is decreasing. Further increase in the bulls’ pressure may place the price above the $139 level, which may incline the price to $140 and $141 levels. When there is an increase in the bears’ pressure, the support level of $137 may be broken downside and the bearish momentum may extend to $136 and $135 price level.

EURJPY medium-term Trend: Bullish

On the 4-hour chart, EURJPY is bullish. When the price action formed a bearish chart pattern called double top. The price follows the command of the price action. The currency pair has penetrated the support level of $139, $138 downside and it is currently pulling back at $137 level.

The two EMAs have crossed each other upside. The price is trading above the 9 periods EMA and 21 periods EMA. The relative strength index period 14 is at 63 levels with the signal line pointing up to indicate a buy signal.

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#EURJPY Price: Will There Be Further Declination to $136 Level? (9 July 2022)

 

EURJPY Price Analysis – July 09

Further increase in the bears’ pressure may place the price below the $137 level, which may decline the price to $126 and $135 levels. When there is an increase in the bulls’ pressure, the resistance level of $138 may be broken upside and the bullish momentum may extend to $140 and $142 price level.

Key Levels:

Resistance levels: $138, $140, $142

Support levels: $137, $136, $135

EURJPY Long-term Trend: Bearish

EURJPY is bearish on the long-term outlook. The double top chart pattern formed at the resistance level of $144 is responsible for the fallen of EURJPY price. The price broke down the former support level of $142, $140 and $138. The support level of $137 is tested and penetrated but the bears have no enough momentum to sustain the breakout. It pulled back. Continuation of bearish movement envisaged if $137 level is penetrated downside.

The fast moving average (9 day EMA) is below the slow moving average (21 day EMA) and the price is trading below the two EMAs which indicate that the bears’ momentum is increasing. Further increase in the bears’ pressure may place the price below the $137 level, which may decline the price to $126 and $135 levels. When there is an increase in the bulls’ pressure, the resistance level of $138 may be broken upside and the bullish momentum may extend to $140 and $142 price level.

EURJPY medium-term Trend: Bearish

On the 4-hour chart, EURJPY is bearish. The price action has formed a bearish chart pattern called double top. The price is following the command of the price action. The currency pair has penetrated the support level of $139, $138 downside and it is currently testing $137 level.

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