USDCHF Puts 2024 Uptrend in Test (8 March 2024)

• USDCHF consolidates its 2024 uptrend
• Short-term bias weakens, but a rebound is still possible

USDCHF topped twice around February’s high of 0.8884 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), increasing fears that the 2024 upleg might have peaked, especially after the tick below the nearby 0.8780 support region on Thursday.

However, the ascending trendline from December’s low is still intact and is currently being examined at 0.8765, with the possibility that January’s high at 0.8727 could also mitigate pressures. The bearish wave could gain momentum if the latter is breached, causing the price to approach the 0.8680 constraining zone. This zone represents the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October-December downleg. A steeper decline could head for the 23.6% Fibonacci level of 0.8545.

The above bearish scenario is backed by the technical indicators, as the RSI is poised to fall below 50 and the MACD is consistently below its signal line. The stochastic oscillator is also maintaining its negative trajectory above its 20 oversold level.

On the upside, the pair will have to pierce through the 0.8810-0.8855 region, which includes the long-term resistance trendline from November 2011, in order to re-challenge the double-top region and the 61.8% Fibonacci of 0.8895. A successful penetration higher could bolster buying appetite towards the 0.8970 barrier and then up to the 78.6% Fibonacci bar of 0.9050.

In short, the uptrend of USDCHF in 2024 has plateaued, but the downside risks may remain balanced as long as the price stays above 0.8730.

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United States #GDP Expanded by 2.1% in Second Quarter, Unemployment Claims Rise Slightly (28 Sept 2023)

The Final (“third”) estimate of United States GDP for the second quarter of 2023, released on Thursday, indicated that the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1%. This is lower than the initial estimate of 2.4% growth but unchanged from the second estimate, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter of 2023, the US economy expanded by 2.2% (revised).

The final estimate GDP is based on more complete data than was available for the second estimate which was released in August. The BEA noted that the final estimate update reflected a downward revision in consumer spending and imports. This was partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and inventory investment.

Compared to first-quarter GDP, the slight deceleration in the second quarter’s final estimate was due to declines in consumer spending, exports, imports, and federal government spending. This was partly offset by an increase in nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment.

In the final estimate, current-dollar GDP increased by $249.4 billion (3%) to $27.06 trillion, a downward revision of $19.4 billion from the previous estimate. Current-dollar personal income increased $232.1 billion in the final estimate, an upward revision of $7.4 billion from the previous estimate.

US Unemployment Claims Edge Higher

US unemployment claims edged higher by 2,000 to 204,000 in the week ending September 23. This was well below the market estimate of 215,000 and remained close to the previous week’s reading of 202,000, which was a seven-month low.

The strong release is further evidence that the US labour market remains strong and provides support for another rate hike from the Federal Reserve before the end of the year.

Market Reaction – US Dollar Steady, Stock Markets Tick Higher

In the aftermath of the United States GDP and the unemployment claims report, the US Dollar has posted small gains or was unchanged against the major currencies. The muted response of the US Dollar should not come as a surprise, as the GDP and unemployment claims were little changed from the previous releases.

The major United States stock markets are yet to open on Thursday and US index futures are steady. The Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 27.50 points (0.17%) at 14,767 and the E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures are up 10.50 points (0.24%) at 4324.

The stock markets have been suffering from a “September swoon”, with fresh worries that the Fed may hold rates for an extended period and perhaps even raise rates again this year, as well as concerns over the looming US government shutdown.

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