#US Non-Farm Payrolls Beats Expectations (9 OCTOBER 2022)

Net employment in the United States rose by 263,000 in September according to the latest figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, exceeding expectations and strengthening the Dollar.

Despite the current global economic headwinds and the fear of a potential recession, the United States’ labour market has continued to perform strongly. 263,000 net new jobs were added to the non-farm payrolls economy.

Detailed US Employment Data

The leisure and hospitality sector spearheaded the growth in jobs by adding 83,000 posts last month, in line with its average monthly job gains so far this year.

Most of the vacancies were created in the food services and drinking outlets with 60,000 new jobs.

Yet the leisure and hospitality industries have not yet recovered from the damaging effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, as there are still 1.1 million fewer jobs available in the sector compared to February 2020.

Health care was another significant growth sector, which has now returned to its pre-pandemic employment levels, with the addition of 60,000 more jobs.

Jobs in the professional and business services grew by 46,000, but this was down compared to August where 68,000 jobs were generated.

It has been a sector that has performed well for this year, with an average monthly job growth total of 72,000.

In September, the main recruiters were from temporary help services, investigation, and security services, and in scientific research and development services.

Manufacturing also saw growth with 22,000 extra situations, mostly arriving from motor vehicles and parts and fabricated metal parts.

Employment in construction and wholesale trade also increased by 19,000 and 11,000, respectively.

There was little change in other major industries, including mining,

retail trade, information, other services, and government.

The fall has also seen more people back to the office, as the number of employees who are still working from home has fallen by 1.3% down to an overall 5.2%.

Unemployment Rate Edges Down

The unemployment rate dropped by 0.2% to return to its July level of 3.5%, leaving 5.8 million people currently without work.

Those who are long term unemployed who have not worked for 27 weeks changed little at 1.1 million, accounting for 18.5% of all the unemployed.

Yet notwithstanding the jobs increase for September, the total percentage of the labour force participation rate was also largely unchanged at 62.3%.

Waller Warns Fed Will Continue to Attack Inflation

In a keynote speech FOMC member Christopher Waller was not far off with a 260,000 job increase prediction for September, and then said that the jobs report should not result in the Fed changing course on its hawkish view of reducing inflation.

Mr. Waller also highlighted the higher inflation figures in August, as further evidence of why the Fed must be aggressive on monetary policy to reduce price pressures.

James Bentley, the director of traders Financial Markets Online, said “Sentiment has been bouncing around all week and there’s a feeling that the longer the labour market remains strong, the less likely a modest slump in the jobs outlook will stay the Fed’s hand.”

He added that the Fed probably has a higher pain threshold to remain on course with rate rises than investors expect.

US Dollar, Treasury Yields Strengthen

The US Dollar reacted positively to the employment data, gaining 0.47% on the UK Pound, with the GBP/USD currency pair ending the week considerably lower at $1.1096.

The greenback also gained against the other major currencies, the Euro, and the Yen, by 0.35% and 0.12% respectively. The EUR/USD currency pair closed lower at $0.9739, while the USD/JPY currency pair made its highest weekly close since 1998 at ¥145.36.

With the situation in Ukraine continuing to escalate, and global equities suffering a prolonged downturn, the Dollar continues to attract investors as a safe haven.

The market reaction has also seen the 10-year Treasury Note yield jump by 0.09% to 3.9%, while the 2-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.32%, a leap of just under 0.06%, and not far off its recent multi-year high.

The Dollar and its treasury yields are already in a strong, long-term bullish trend, and this data seems to be giving it more tailwind.

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#GBPUSD Turns Green Near Pandemic Low (6 SEPTEMBER 2022)

GBPUSD charted a 30-month low just above the pandemic low of 1.1408 on Monday before turning green for the first time after a week.

The price managed to rise as high as 1.1600 earlier today and although some recovery could take place in the near term given the oversold conditions in the market as reflected by the RSI and the stochastics, it is too early to hope for a meaningful rally. The indicators are still stuck in the bearish area, while the pair itself still has some obstacles to overcome before it decides to exit the 2022 bearish channel.

The 1.1620 region, where the price met some restrictions lately, could add some pressure ahead of the 1.1758 barrier in case of a move higher. Then, a decisive close above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 1.1830 resistance could be the key for an advance towards the 50-day SMA at 1.1950 and the channel’s upper band seen around the 1.2000 crucial boundary. A successful penetration higher and beyond 1.2085 could confirm a direct flight towards the August peak of 1.2292.

If upside pressures fizzle immediately, the bears may push again towards the pandemic low of 1.1408, a break of which would threaten an outlook deterioration below the channel’s lower line seen within the 1.1320 – 1.1300 area. The 1.1200 mark could next come on the radar.

Summarizing, GBPUSD could recoup some lost ground in the coming sessions, though any potential upside reversal will be under scrutiny as downside risks remain in play.

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#NZDUSD: #NZD Drifting,#US New Home Sales Next (23 AUGUST 2022)

The New Zealand dollar is paddling in calm waters, as NZD/USD trades close to 1-month lows. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6176, up 0.10%. The kiwi is still smarting from a disastrous week, in which NZD/USD plunged 4.40%.

RBNZ coy on its plans

The RBNZ is in the midst of an aggressive rate-hike cycle, having raised rates by 50 basis points for a fourth consecutive time. The central bank is expected to add another 50bp hike at the October meeting, which would bring the cash rate to 3.50%. Inflation has hit 7.3%, but the RBNZ is confident that it will peak soon and expects inflation to fall to 3.8% by the end of 2023. The central bank is cautiously positive about the economic outlook, predicting that the economic downturn will not turn into a recession.

Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby said in an interview this week that the slowdown should lower inflation and bring employment to a more “sustainable level”. Hawkesby said that the RBNZ was deliberately being ambiguous about the peak for rate levels, saying it could be at 4.00% or 4.25% or thereabouts. He added that more rate hikes are coming, while acknowledging that the pace of tightening could slow in the near future.

We’ll get a look at some key US events today and Wednesday that could have an impact on the direction of the US dollar. New Home Sales will be released later today, with a forecast of 575 thousand for July, following 590 thousand in June. Durable goods orders will be published on Wednesday, with the headline reading expected to slow to 0.6% in July, down sharply from 2.0% in June. With the Federal Reserve saying that rate policy will depend to a large extent on the strength of economic data, investors are keeping a close eye on key US events and we could see some movement in the currency markets following these releases.

NZD/USD Technical

• NZD/USD faces resistance at 0.6227 and 0.6366
• There is support at 0.6126 and 0.6075

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📊LIVE #Forex #AUDUSD SIGNAL (2 AUGUST 2022)📊

 

AUDUSD Buy now AT 0.7009

Stop loss 0.6909 ( 100 pips)

Take Profit 0.7039 ( 30 pips)

Take profit 0.7069 ( 60 PIPS)

Take profit 0.7139 ( 130 PIPS)

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#USDCHF Price: Low Bullish & #Bearish Momentum (22 JUNE 2022)

 

USDCHF Price Analysis – June 22

An increase in the Bears’ momentum will lead to decrease in the USDCHF price which may break down the support level at $0.95, $0.94 levels and may extend to $0.93 level. In case the bulls oppose the bears, price may increase to the resistance levels at $0.96, $0.97 and $0.98 levels.

USDCHF Market

Key Levels:

Resistance levels: $0.96 $0.97, $0.98

Support levels: $0.95, $0.94, $0.93

USDCHF Long-term trend: Bearish

USDCHF is bearish on the long-term outlook. The bulls have successfully pushed the price to reach the high of $1.00 level as the second touch. The former support level of $0.98 has turned to resistance level which indicates that the bears are dominating the USDCHF market. The bears’ momentum is breaking down the $0.95 level as USDCHF is trading below $0.96 price level at the moment. Today, the bears are gaining more pressure to break down the $0.96 support level and the price may move towards the support level at $0.95.

The currency pair has penetrated the two EMAs downside. The 9 periods EMA and the 21 periods EMA remains above the currency pair at close contact which indicate that Bears’ strength in the USDCHF market is increasing. The Relative Strength Index period 14 is at 45 levels parallel to the level to indicate ranging signal. An increase in the Bears’ momentum will lead to decrease in the USDCHF price which may break down the support level at $0.95, $0.94 levels and may extend to $0.93 level. In case the bulls oppose the bears, price may increase to the resistance levels at $0.96, $0.97 and $0.98 levels.

USDCHF Medium-term Trend: Bearish

USDCHF is bearish in the medium-term outlook. The currency pair bounces off at the resistance level of $1.00 and it is moving towards the $0.98 support level. It penetrates the barrier at $0.99 level. Today, the bears dominate the USDCHF market and the price is targeting the support level at $0.95.

The 9 period EMA has crossed the 21 periods EMA downside, USDCHF is trading below the two EMAs. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index period 14 is at 42 levels with upward direction, which connotes buy signal.

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#AUDUSD Halts Decline as #Bearish Pressures Wane (15 JUNE 2022)

 AUDUSD has been experiencing a sharp downtrend after it failed to jump above the 0.7282 level in early June. Although the pair has managed to find its feet in the last couple of four-hour sessions, the descending 50-period simple moving average (SMA) is closing the gap with the 200-period SMA, where a potential violation could reinforce the case of a sustained downside trajectory.

The momentum indicators reflect a cautiously positive near-term bias. Specifically, the stochastic oscillator is ascending steeply, while the MACD histogram has jumped above its red signal line but remains in the negative area.

Should buying interest intensify, the pair might encounter initial resistance at the recent peak of 0.6970. Jumping above this region, the bulls could then aim for the 0.7033 barrier, which has acted both as support and resistance in the past two months. Further upside moves could then stall at 0.7135 before the spotlight turns to the 0.7245 hurdle.

On the flipside, if the pair fails to rebound and continues its descent, 0.6892 may act as the first line of defense. Should that floor collapse, the recent reversal point of 0.6850 could prove a tough obstacle for the bears to overcome. A violation of the latter could pave the way for the two-year low of 0.6828.

Overall, AUDUSD has recently managed to cease its downfall but there is a long way till its short-term picture turns back to bullish. Therefore, a break beneath the 0.6850 floor could revive sellers’ hopes for the resumption of the recent downtrend.

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Weekly #forex Forecast: US Dollar Index,#EURUSD,#AUDUSD,#USDJPY,#GBPJPY,#USDCAD & #USDCHF (30 MAY- 3 JUNE 2022)

 Technical Analysis

U.S. Dollar Index

The weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index fell again last week, against the long-term bullish trend, printing a bearish candlestick that closed very close to the bottom of its range. This reversal is not very notable technically, apart from its location in the chart confluent with a long-term high, with reinforces the bearish case that we may have seen a major bearish inflection point.

A notable feature in the Forex market this week was that the selloff in the greenback has been against almost all other currencies, showing the market is currently being driven by US Dollar weakness.

Despite the long-term bullish trend, it will probably be a mistake to expect a rising Dollar over this coming week.

USD/CAD

I had expected the level at $1.2869 might function as resistance, as it had previously functioned as both support and resistance. Note how such “flipping” levels can be very reliable reversal points. The H1 chart below shows how the price rejected this level with a bearish pin bar at the start of the New York session last Wednesday, which is typically a great time to be trading Forex. The entry point is marked by up down arrow within the price chart below. This trade has been nicely profitable so far, achieving a maximum positive risk reward ratio of more than 4 to 1 based upon the size of the entry candlestick.

GBP/USD

The British pound has rallied significantly last week to break above the 1.26 handle. However, we started to show signs of hesitation as we closed the week, so I believe that this coming week will probably see more of a “fade the rally” type of attitude. If we were to break above the 1.27 level, then we may see a recovery rally to the 1.30 handle, but that would take some type of massive drop in the US dollar across the board. For what it is worth, the British pound does seem to be one of the stronger currencies out there over the last two weeks.

EUR/USD

The euro had a strong move to the upside for a majority of last week but reached close enough to the 1.08 level to see sellers come back in. This is an area that had been previous support, and now is offering resistance. The market has been in a downtrend for quite some time, so it’s not a huge surprise to see that we rallied during the day. The 1.05 level could be a target for sellers. On the other hand, if we were to break above the 1.09 level, that could open up fresh buying. I don’t see that happening though, so more likely than not, we will see plenty of sellers.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rallied significantly last week to the 0.7150 area. The 0.72 level above is a significant amount of resistance on daily charts, so this is going to be an interesting chart to watch. We have recently seen a nice bounce, but a lot of this is going to come down to what’s happening with the bond markets. If the bond markets continue to lose yield, then it’s likely that the US dollar will lose some of its luster. Underneath, the 0.70 level should offer quite a bit of support.

CAD/JPY

The Canadian dollar pulled back last week but has found a bit of support underneath. Currently, the pair seems to be comfortable hanging around the ¥100 level, and this suggests that we are going to see a lot of back and forth. If we can turn around and take out the top of the candlestick from the previous week, then it’s likely that we could continue. On the other hand, if the Canadian dollar drops down below the ¥98 level, we may get a pullback of a couple of hundred pips.

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Forex Today: Markets Await British, Canadian Inflation Data (18 MAY 2022)

 The release of British and Canadian inflation data later today will send markets evidence as to whether global inflation rates are peaking.

• Today will bring releases of CPI (inflation) data in the UK and Canada. The data may cause volatility in the GBP and CAD, and will be closely watched for clues as to the progress of inflation in the most developed economies. UK inflation is expected to reach an annualized rate of 9.1%, while Canadian inflation is expected to have increased by 0.5% month on month.
• The Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, stated yesterday that the Fed will continue to raise rates until inflation declines, and that if the Fed has to move beyond a “neutral” monetary policy, it will.
• In the Forex market, the US Dollar is recovering after selling off yesterday, especially against the commodity currencies AUD, NZD, and CAD.
• Major cryptocurrencies are looking bearish again after recovering from technically significant breakdowns last week. However, Bitcoin/USD has a strong key support level at $28,607 which continues to hold.
• US Retail Sales data came in slightly lower than expected, but the Core data was above expectations, suggesting nothing unexpected is really happening to US consumer demand.
• Australian Wage Price data came in slightly lower than expected, which perhaps dampens Australian inflation expectations a little.
• Later today there will be a release of Australian Unemployment data.
• Daily new coronavirus cases globally fell last week for the eighth consecutive week.
• It is estimated that 65.7% of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccination, while approximately 6.6% of the global population is confirmed to have contracted the virus at some time, although the true number is highly likely to be much larger.
• Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 524.1 million with an average case fatality rate of 1.20%.
• The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be significantly increasing only in Costa Rica, Jamaica, Australia, Barbados, Dominica, Panama, Portugal, South Africa, and Taiwan.

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Higher US CPI Could Trigger More Market Angst (11 MAY 2022)

Given the palpable woes surrounding inflation, markets will be keeping a wary eye on today’s US CPI release. The median forecast expects an 8.1% headline inflation print for April, which is a moderation from the 8.5% year-on-year jump registered in March.

A lower-than-expected CPI print would allow risk assets to breathe a momentary sigh of relief. Still, it wouldn’t imply that the Fed has achieved its inflation goals; far from it. After all, a single print does not a trend make. Headline inflation above 8%, or even 6.6% according to the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge, remains far elevated compared to the central bank’s target of a 2% average.

On the other hand, a higher-than-expected CPI print today is set to ramp up the Fed’s hawkish convictions, potentially helping the dollar index reclaim the 104 handle, while heaping more downward pressure on stocks. If US inflation is shown to be climbing persistently, that could see spot gold break below its 200-day simple moving average and immediate Fibonacci support level around the mid-$1830 region.

In order for risk assets to meaningfully pare losses, markets need to be assured that US inflation has indeed peaked and will continue decelerating, in turn allowing the Fed to ease off from its ultra-hawkish stance. Until then, markets remain at the mercy of policymakers’ battle against the hottest inflation in 40 years, with risk assets living on a prayer as long as the Fed has yet to reach peak hawkishness.

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#NZDJPY Slices Below 50-Day Average, is the Rally Over? (10 MAY 2022)

NZDJPY experienced a very sharp drop in recent sessions, sliding below its 50-day moving average to find support near its lower Bollinger band. The uptrend that started in late January seems to be unravelling as the pair has printed lower lows and lower highs, particularly on shorter timeframes.

Short-term oscillators paint a picture of a slightly bearish market. The RSI has stabilized a little, albeit below its neutral 50 line, while the MACD is stuck below its red trigger line.

In the case that sellers remain in charge and manage to pierce back below the 82.30 area, which was also a top back in October, the next region to provide support may be around 81.60. This zone also roughly coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-April rally.

If buyers seize back control, their first test would be the 83.30 territory and the 50-day moving average just above at 83.50. If that resistance barrier is breached, the next hurdle to provide resistance could be the 84.85 line, marked by the recent highs and the inside swing low in early April.

Summarizing, the picture has turned neutral with the formation of successive lower lows and lower highs. For the outlook to turn firmly negative, traders might need to see a slide below the 200-day moving average.

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How much money do you need to start forex trading?

 

It's easy to start day trading currencies, because the foreign exchange (forex) market is one of the most accessible financial markets. Some forex brokers require a minimum initial deposit of only $50 to open an account but this amount is for only to open an account. Now a days brokers allow 100-500usd minimum to open an account, while others allow you to open accounts with no initial deposit.

We are here to discuss How much money do you need to start forex trading?
So as i am working in this field since past 9 years. I believe in facts and giving you some genuine numbers to start forex. Minimum you can start with 800-1000usd (Even 1000usd is the best option to start) . With this amount you can use and get benefits of all the flexibilities of forex market and can get good reliable returns of forex market. This is the amount by which you can use proper profit of your amount and can get trade with full volume of currencies.

If you must start trading right away, you can begin with $100. For a little more flexibility, $500 can lead to slightly more income or returns. However, $5,000 might be best(I know , because it can help you produce a reasonable amount of income that will compensate you for the time you're spending on trading.

Minimum Capital for Day Trading Forex

If you must start trading right away, you can begin with $100. For a little more flexibility, $500 can lead to slightly more income or returns. However, $5,000 might be best, because it can help you produce a reasonable amount of income that will compensate you for the time you're spending on trading.

Set amounts don't help you understand the minimum amount required for your trading desires, life circumstances, or risk tolerance. You should understand the risks involved in trading forex and know how to mitigate them.

It's also important to know how forex trades are made and what they consist of, so that you can better gauge your ability to withstand losses on your way to making gains.

Understand the Risks

Since day trading is about trading on price changes, most of the risk is in the form of prices not moving the way you thought they might go. That happens often, so day traders shouldn't risk more than 1% of their forex account on a single trade.

Trading Risks

Leveraged trading and marginal trading occur when you use forms of debt to fund your trades. Both of these activities significantly increase the amount of risk you take on, and they increase the likelihood of owing much more than you did initially.

Trade risk, regarding the money you risk in one trade and not the risks mentioned previously, is the amount of capital you could lose. It is determined by finding the difference between your entry price and the price at which your stop-loss order goes into effect, multiplied by the position size and the pip value (discussed below).

Risk Management

While you can use leverage to fund your trades and be successful, the risks are so high that the best way to manage the risks involved is not to use leverage-based trading.

The 1% rule is one of the best methods for mitigating trade risk. If your account contains $1,000, then the most you'll want to risk on a trade is $10. If your account has $10,000, you shouldn't risk more than $100 per trade.

Learn Lot Sizes and Pip Values

When you buy or sell forex, prices move in "pips," and the amounts are sold in lots. The relationship between the two is important for establishing your minimum amount.

Lots

Forex pairs trade in units of 1,000 (micro), 10,000 (mini), or 100,000 (standard) lots. When USD is listed second in the pair—such as EUR/USD—and you fund your account with U.S. dollars (USD), the value of the pip per type of lot is fixed in USD.

If you hold a micro lot of 1,000 units, each pip movement is worth $0.10. If you hold a mini lot of 10,000, then each pip move is $1. If you hold a standard lot of 100,000, then each pip move is $10.

Pips

The forex market moves in pips, which stands for "percentage in point or price interest point." A pip is the smallest amount that a currency can change. For instance, in most currency pairs, a pip is 0.0001, which is equivalent to 1/100th of a percent.

If the EUR/USD price changes from 1.3025 to 1.3026, that's a one-pip move. If it changes to 1.3125, that's a 100-pip move.

Create Stop-Loss Orders

When trading currencies, it's essential to enter a stop-loss order. Stop-loss orders automatically prevent significant losses if the base currency moves in the opposite direction of your bet. A simple stop-loss order could be 10 pips below the current price when you expect the price to rise, or 10 pips above the current price when you expect it to fall.

This method depends upon the amount you've limited yourself to trade with. A stop loss of 10 pips below could be a significant amount of money—if one EUR/USD pip costs $10, a 10-pip move downward could cost you $100 on one standard lot.

Determine Your Minimum Capital for Trading

It helps to see how different trading amounts can influence your minimum amount for day trading. The previous examples of $100, $500, and $5,000 are excellent for seeing the differences and working through the calculations to find your limit.

$100 in the Account

Suppose you open an account for $100. You will want to limit your risk on each trade to $1 (1% of $100).

If you place a trade in EUR/USD, buying or selling one micro lot, your stop-loss order must be within 10 pips of your entry price. Since each pip is worth $0.10, if your stop loss were 11 pips away, your risk would be $1.10 (11 x $0.10 x 1), which is more risk than your strategy allows for.

$500 in the Account

Now suppose you were to open an account with $500. You can risk up to $5 per trade and buy multiple lots. For example, you can set a stop-loss 10 pips away from your entry price and buy five micro-lots. You'd still be within your risk limit, because 10 pips x $0.10 x 5 micro lots = $5.

If you were to choose to place a stop-loss 25 pips away from the entry price, you could buy two micro-lots to keep the risk on the trade below 1% of the account. You would buy only two micro-lots, because 25 pips x $0.10 x 2 micro lots = $5.

Starting with $500 will provide greater trading flexibility and produce more daily income than $100, but most day traders will still be able to make only $5 to $15 per day off that amount with any regularity.

$5,000 in the Account

If you were to start with $5,000, you have even more flexibility and can trade mini-lots as well as micro-lots. If you buy the EUR/USD at 1.3025 and place a stop loss at 1.3017 (eight pips of risk), you could buy six mini-lots and two micro-lots.

Your maximum risk would be $50 (1% of $5,000), and you could trade in mini lots, because each pip is worth $1, and you would have chosen an eight-pip stop-loss. Divide the risk ($50) by (8 pips x $1) to get 6.25 for the number of mini-lots you could buy without exceeding your risk. You would break up 6.25 mini-lots into six mini-lots (6 x $1 x 8 pips = $48) and 2 micro-lots (2 x $0.10 x 8 pips = $1.60), which would put a total of only $49.60 at risk.

With this amount of capital and the ability to risk $50 on each trade, the income potential moves up, and traders can potentially make $50 or more per day, depending on their forex strategy and price changes.

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